The war in Afghanistan was/is a mess

ivwshane

Lifer
May 15, 2000
32,218
14,904
136
Breaking news that no one knew or could have possibly predicted: the government lied to us about Afghanistan and their progress./s



It’s a long read and reminds me of a sunken treasure fallacy.

We should completely pull out and not waste a dime more. You cannot want something for a people more than they want it for themselves (speaking of democracy or a strong centralized government).
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,026
33,002
136
I mean taken together all the coverage of the war over the years basically gives the same impression.

It's not like there weren't a lot of historical warnings about this either. The Bush admin didn't care though and once involved it is extremely difficult to disengage US forces due to a desire to avoid embarrassment at almost any cost.
 

Starbuck1975

Lifer
Jan 6, 2005
14,698
1,909
126
Breaking news that no one knew or could have possibly predicted: the government lied to us about Afghanistan and their progress./s



It’s a long read and reminds me of a sunken treasure fallacy.

We should completely pull out and not waste a dime more. You cannot want something for a people more than they want it for themselves (speaking of democracy or a strong centralized government).
Afghanistan was winnable. We foolishly diverted much needed resources to Iraq. The swift initial defeat of the Taliban was a case study in leveraging special forces to conventionally defeat an enemy in partnership with local opposition forced. However, the military is not the right tool for converting an entire society around western values. You can’t do that at gunpoint.

Great article
 

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
33,426
7,485
136
“If the American people knew the magnitude of this dysfunction . . . 2,400 lives lost,” Lute added, blaming the deaths of U.S. military personnel on bureaucratic breakdowns among Congress, the Pentagon and the State Department. “Who will say this was in vain?”

A clear lack of American leadership, moral courage and character. We grind our military to dust, so we can pretend to "save face" rather than doing the right thing.
 
Feb 4, 2009
34,553
15,766
136
Breaking news that no one knew or could have possibly predicted: the government lied to us about Afghanistan and their progress./s



It’s a long read and reminds me of a sunken treasure fallacy.

We should completely pull out and not waste a dime more. You cannot want something for a people more than they want it for themselves (speaking of democracy or a strong centralized government).

Agreed, didn’t read the link but I read an article earlier

Afghanistan was winnable. We foolishly diverted much needed resources to Iraq. The swift initial defeat of the Taliban was a case study in leveraging special forces to conventionally defeat an enemy in partnership with local opposition forced. However, the military is not the right tool for converting an entire society around western values. You can’t do that at gunpoint.

Great article

Agreed, scope always sounded weird and I’ll bothsides it too. Sounded unattainable under Bush, sounded unattainable under Obama. Military is not the right tool for this job.
Congress needs to bring back war votes for long terms invasions. People need to have skin in the game instead of saying well some bill passed in 2001 I’m just following along. This applies to Representatives, Senators and the Military.
 

MagnusTheBrewer

IN MEMORIAM
Jun 19, 2004
24,135
1,594
126
Afghanistan was winnable. We foolishly diverted much needed resources to Iraq. The swift initial defeat of the Taliban was a case study in leveraging special forces to conventionally defeat an enemy in partnership with local opposition forced. However, the military is not the right tool for converting an entire society around western values. You can’t do that at gunpoint.

Great article
You might want to review what we did to the American Indians. Afghanistan has been almost continually at war either internally or externally for CENTURIES! You are right that the only way to attain lasting peace is to destroy their culture which has the same appeal as genocide.
 

Starbuck1975

Lifer
Jan 6, 2005
14,698
1,909
126
You might want to review what we did to the American Indians. Afghanistan has been almost continually at war either internally or externally for CENTURIES! You are right that the only way to attain lasting peace is to destroy their culture which has the same appeal as genocide.
The French and Indian war is especially applicable.

We went in thinking we could conventionally defeat the Taliban. The smart thing we did was to partner with opposition forces for the initial push. We never had a plan for what followed.
 

BoomerD

No Lifer
Feb 26, 2006
62,844
11,256
136
Afghanistan was winnable. We foolishly diverted much needed resources to Iraq. The swift initial defeat of the Taliban was a case study in leveraging special forces to conventionally defeat an enemy in partnership with local opposition forced. However, the military is not the right tool for converting an entire society around western values. You can’t do that at gunpoint.

Great article

I'm not so sure it was "winnable" long term. The Soviets couldn't manage to do it...and their military had a lot fewer "constraints" on how they prosecuted war than our troops did...but I do agree that we'd never have changed their society...
 

ch33zw1z

Lifer
Nov 4, 2004
37,760
18,039
146
Turns out Papaver Somniferum is a tough plant to eradicate and get farmers away from.

Either way, I agree that Afghanistan was a bad move, never was in agreement, hoped Obama would get us out.
 
  • Like
Reactions: hal2kilo

interchange

Diamond Member
Oct 10, 1999
8,016
2,850
136
Afghanistan was winnable. We foolishly diverted much needed resources to Iraq. The swift initial defeat of the Taliban was a case study in leveraging special forces to conventionally defeat an enemy in partnership with local opposition forced. However, the military is not the right tool for converting an entire society around western values. You can’t do that at gunpoint.

Great article

I don't know what winning in Afghanistan meant. I agree the military is not the right tool for conversion to Western values. The trouble is that suggests something else might be. Or that it is right to do anything akin to converting another country's values. Personally I think the gradual changes in Iran with their exposure to American culture and products before Trump was the closest thing we could expect. But that's a much more stable country, which is scary to say.
 

UNCjigga

Lifer
Dec 12, 2000
24,811
9,017
136
If only there had been some prior example of
the clusterfuck a long and protracted war in Afghanistan could become for a naive superpower.

AKA nobody knew tribal Afghanistan was so complicated...nobody!!

/s
 

Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
37,476
8,076
136
My info on Afganistan, the history of countries fighting there, occupying, whatever, is that it's never worked. The French, Russians, Americans, everybody has been frustrated. Not surprising that the USA is in the same barrel of fish.

Syria is different, I suppose, but pretty much an impossible quagmire also. Trump's pulling troops out has only upset the situation there even further. He's Putin's pet.
 

Starbuck1975

Lifer
Jan 6, 2005
14,698
1,909
126
I'm not so sure it was "winnable" long term. The Soviets couldn't manage to do it...and their military had a lot fewer "constraints" on how they prosecuted war than our troops did...but I do agree that we'd never have changed their society...
I don't know what winning in Afghanistan meant. I agree the military is not the right tool for conversion to Western values. The trouble is that suggests something else might be. Or that it is right to do anything akin to converting another country's values. Personally I think the gradual changes in Iran with their exposure to American culture and products before Trump was the closest thing we could expect. But that's a much more stable country, which is scary to say.
There were Afghani people who were willing to risk their lives for the right to vote or even just obtain an education. We underestimated the resolve or the Taliban and its willingness to kill innocent civilians just to maintain power.
 

interchange

Diamond Member
Oct 10, 1999
8,016
2,850
136
There were Afghani people who were willing to risk their lives for the right to vote or even just obtain an education. We underestimated the resolve or the Taliban and its willingness to kill innocent civilians just to maintain power.

I don't dispute these statements. And I don't feel any differently having heard them. But I think based on statements hear you likely know more about it than I do. Can you help me understand what you would define as winning in choosing to engage the Taliban, and how we may have succeeded differently?
 
  • Like
Reactions: Starbuck1975

Starbuck1975

Lifer
Jan 6, 2005
14,698
1,909
126
I don't dispute these statements. And I don't feel any differently having heard them. But I think based on statements hear you likely know more about it than I do. Can you help me understand what you would define as winning in choosing to engage the Taliban, and how we may have succeeded differently?
Lots of “ifs”, but it starts with the initial assault, sending in just enough resources to push the Taliban out, but not enough to hunt, seek and destroy.

Also, the thinking at the time was for the attacking military to consist of Afghani people, not realizing that the tribal leaders embraced were not a great alternative, and undermined us in ways we didn’t understand.

Lastly, much like Iraq, the people in Afghanistan have only known tyranny. They didn’t fully understand the alternate path we offered them, and our occupying forces could never match the brutality known and accepted as the status quo.

The article linked in the OP does a good job of summarizing a lot of what we underestimated or could have done.
 
  • Like
Reactions: cytg111

Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
14,681
136
Lots of “ifs”, but it starts with the initial assault, sending in just enough resources to push the Taliban out, but not enough to hunt, seek and destroy.

Also, the thinking at the time was for the attacking military to consist of Afghani people, not realizing that the tribal leaders embraced were not a great alternative, and undermined us in ways we didn’t understand.

Lastly, much like Iraq, the people in Afghanistan have only known tyranny. They didn’t fully understand the alternate path we offered them, and our occupying forces could never match the brutality known and accepted as the status quo.

The article linked in the OP does a good job of summarizing a lot of what we underestimated or could have done.

Please. It's been perfectly obvious since forever that the Afghans will not tolerate foreign occupation, that peace is not possible under those circumstances. They just won't. The Neocons didn't care. There's good money to be made from perpetual war & the knock-on corruption puts a smile on the faces of money laundering bankers everywhere.
 

JEDIYoda

Lifer
Jul 13, 2005
33,981
3,318
126
Winnable -- hahahahahahahahaha……..yeah right!!!
Winnable -- hahahahahahahahaha……..yeah right!!!
Winnable -- hahahahahahahahaha……..yeah right!!!
Winnable -- hahahahahahahahaha……..yeah right!!!
Winnable -- hahahahahahahahaha……..yeah right!!!
Winnable -- hahahahahahahahaha……..yeah right!!!
etc......
 

BonzaiDuck

Lifer
Jun 30, 2004
15,709
1,450
126
Certainly, some of our members must have seen the film version of Robert McNamara's book -- "The Fog of War". He was bending one way and then the other between JFK and Johnson. Johnson had come under the influence of hawks on the Joint Chiefs of Staff regarding Vietnam -- for instance, Curtis LeMay.

There is no longer any doubt what Kennedy's plan would be, despite his little speech on the White House lawn to satisfy the bellicose part of the electorate. There was not only the [Senator] Gravel edition of the October 1963 McNamara-Taylor Vietnam Trip Report, but there were some 15 different drafts generated in the White House -- much of it already written before General Taylor and Secretary McNamara actually went to Vietnam.

Around that time, with McNamara as Defense Secretary, CIA's Ted Shackley was Station Chief in Saigon (check the precise assignment, but he was there, and read David Corn's book "Blond Ghost: Ted Shackley and the CIA's Crusades" ~1995.) In regards to operations in Laos and Vietnam, Shackley was fabricating body-count data in reports back to Langley and the Pentagon.

History may not repeat itself, but it rhymes. And Americans seem to have forgotten, or simply missed, the lessons of the Vietnam War, partly because people believed a lot of stuff that was reported as news at the time, they believed US Strategic Doctrine, they didn't bother to read Elsberg's revelations in the Pentagon Papers, and they didn't follow the declassifications over time through the 1990s which generally expose what really happened and why it happened.

Today, you find a lot of folks with this puerile view of the Vietnam War. Even Senator McCain, who noted that it was a "noble cause", both believed too much of that myth, and helped to perpetuate it. The men who served, many who were drafted, were noble men. But the signs were already there when the SEATO allies bailed out, the corrupt Diem regime was elected because of the way the ballots were designed to appeal to Vietnamese superstition -- the work of Maj. Gen. Edward Geary Lansdale, who had set up the Saigon Military Mission before the Diem election. In fact, the voters who elected Diem were mostly the 1.7 million Vietnamese Catholics who were relocated from the North to the South.

So it wouldn't surprise me to see this story about the war in Afghanistan. Again, you could look at it as the Trap of Sunk Cost -- a business concept. Once you invest money and lives in a war, you will ignore the signs that getting out of it is the wiser proposition. There is the political dimension, in which grieving parents will ask why their kids died, when you pulled out of a bad war. You then keep throwing money and lives at the enterprise because you are trying to salvage what has already been lost. In business, to do this with a consistently failing enterprise or operation just leads to bankruptcy. That's why they call it "sunk cost". You really can't retrieve all that has been expended, and the trap is to keep spending more and more to prop up the value of the accumulated loss.

How do you think Trump will manage this? Posit that the man is totally clueless of just about everything -- the war that he avoided for "bone spurs", the 56,000 dead Americans and many more that number maimed or wounded, and what is really hilarious -- he probably doesn't even understand these matters of sunk cost, or the "Economics of Defense in the Nuclear Age" -- (see Charles Hitch).

Abba-dabba- doo! He ith thuch a bidniss-man! He hath good jeans! He knoweth how the kumquat cometh -- ever on an abba-dabba, ancient and honorable Sire!
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: Muse

NostaSeronx

Diamond Member
Sep 18, 2011
3,686
1,221
136
Just give the Middle East to China, problem solved. There is also Russia, clearly okay in today's standards.

There is also the other gambit, support Iran. *gasp!*
 

BonzaiDuck

Lifer
Jun 30, 2004
15,709
1,450
126
Just give the Middle East to China, problem solved. There is also Russia, clearly okay in today's standards.

There is also the other gambit, support Iran. *gasp!*

During the Obama years, I saw it as a perpetual steady state of "tension management". If one could expel the hubris and king-of-the-mountain chest-thumping, one could slowly, carefully back away from the "global-policeman" role, without sacrificing a Queen or a Rook.

If you ask me, as of the moment, someone is giving away the big pieces wholesale . . . . to then turn around and boast about it to the clueless Base . . . .
 
  • Like
Reactions: Jaskalas and Muse

Paladin3

Diamond Member
Mar 5, 2004
4,933
877
126
"Greater love hath no man than this, that a man lay down his life for his friends." My heart goes out to the men and women of our military who have bled and died on a fools errand. We can best support out troops by bringing them home to their families and a grateful country. And doing our best to make sure it doesn't happen again.
 

Starbuck1975

Lifer
Jan 6, 2005
14,698
1,909
126
Winnable -- hahahahahahahahaha……..yeah right!!!
Winnable -- hahahahahahahahaha……..yeah right!!!
Winnable -- hahahahahahahahaha……..yeah right!!!
Winnable -- hahahahahahahahaha……..yeah right!!!
Winnable -- hahahahahahahahaha……..yeah right!!!
Winnable -- hahahahahahahahaha……..yeah right!!!
etc......
Elaborate