- May 18, 2001
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We've all heard the stories about the MIT kids who "broke" the casinos for large sums of money. Every time I'm in Vegas, I play a lot of blackjack and someone at the table inevitably brings up the topic. It seems like everyone in Vegas is aware of the story, and has gotten the notion that it is possible to use card counting to win at the tables. A lot of people try, yet I haven't met anyone who has actually succeeded.
According to the blackjack section over at Wizard of Odds, card counting doesn't allow a player to gain much of an advantage over the casinos.
So I got to thinking:
1. I have never read or heard of anyone who actually knows anybody who has used card counting to make their fortunes.
2. I have never read or heard of anyone who has been ejected from a casino for card counting.
3. It seems that blackjack has become a really popular game in the last few years, particularly since the MIT story was publicized.
So I thought a little further:
What if the MIT story was at some level a deception? If suddenly the public had been led to believe that there is a beatable casino game (contrary to reality), who would be in a position to make a huge profit? The answer is simple: the casinos.
So thats my conspiracy theory. The casinos created the whole MIT story, and they've been raking in the bucks ever since.
According to the blackjack section over at Wizard of Odds, card counting doesn't allow a player to gain much of an advantage over the casinos.
To be a successful counter you have to be able to count down a deck fast and memorize large tables of numbers as well as make it look like you're just a casual player. Furthermore, with today's rules, a realistic advantage the counter will have is only 0.5% to 1.5%. You will not win money slowly and gradually but your bankroll will go up and down like a roller coaster in the short run. Only in the long run, over hundreds of hours of playing, can you count on winning.
So I got to thinking:
1. I have never read or heard of anyone who actually knows anybody who has used card counting to make their fortunes.
2. I have never read or heard of anyone who has been ejected from a casino for card counting.
3. It seems that blackjack has become a really popular game in the last few years, particularly since the MIT story was publicized.
So I thought a little further:
What if the MIT story was at some level a deception? If suddenly the public had been led to believe that there is a beatable casino game (contrary to reality), who would be in a position to make a huge profit? The answer is simple: the casinos.
So thats my conspiracy theory. The casinos created the whole MIT story, and they've been raking in the bucks ever since.