The real reason why the nexus 4 is sold out...

[MrX8503]

http://www.androidauthority.com/lg-nexus-4-serial-numbers-143937/

LG has only been able to produce less than 400,000 devices. Pretty horrible.

 

[Red Storm]

I thought that was the already established reason? That they didn't make nearly enough phones to meet demand.

 

[WelshBloke]

Yeah why would anyone contract LG to make stuff for them.

 

[Suspicious-Teach8788]

I thought that was the already established reason? That they didn't make nearly enough phones to meet demand.

so who's fault is that?

1) Google for managing this mess.
2) LG for sucking at manufacturing.

 

[Zstream]

n900mixalot • 5 hours ago −
I'm still not convinced that LG is to blame. It was up to Google to decide how many LG should manufacture. End of story.

This is Google's phone. They don't know what they're doing. Look what they did with the Q. All LG ever does is manufacture phones, day and night. They know their business.

LG could have made far more available at launch but they're not stupid enough to exceed the demand as it is presented to them by Google. That's basic business.

 

[Eug]

The conclusion of that article makes no sense. It's not LG's fault that Google completely misjudged demand and asked for too few units. Why the hell would LG make 1 million if Google asked for say 100000?

What's even more telling though is the fact that Google couldn't even come close to handling the orders on their site, despite the comparatively small number.

If I had to guess based in the limited info we have, I'd say Google is at least 2/3 to blame for this screwed up launch.

 

[WelshBloke]

Could also be that Google don't want to sell a butt ton of nexus phones.

Remember the hoohaa when they first started selling them, and the fuss when they bought moto?

They have aways said that they don't want to take trade away from the other manufacturers.

 

[MrX8503]

I thought that was the already established reason? That they didn't make nearly enough phones to meet demand.

This time we have some numbers.

 

[Eug]

Could also be that Google don't want to sell a butt ton of nexus phones.

Remember the hoohaa when they first started selling them, and the fuss when they bought moto?

They have aways said that they don't want to take trade away from the other manufacturers.

That doesn't make any sense either. If they wanted to reduce demand, they would have just priced the phone at US$499 like many people were expecting.

 

[BrightCandle]

The best phone to have on android is always the Google one. They tend to be decent specs but more importantly you get the updates faster and you only get the default OS. The default experience is better than the rubbish added to it and the updates make a big difference.

I wouldn't want an Android phone any other way. In the past Google hasn't sold very many phones itself so I can see why they didn't choose to produce all that many. But this time many more people have realised that the default experience with the latest OS is the best one.

 

[bonkers325]

The purpose of the Nexus brand is, and always is, to further the Google brand and set the bar for the latest Android platform. The general PR behind the Nexus 4 release is that it's a great phone, cheap and off contract, and sold out practically everywhere.

And, to be honest, do you really think OEMs would let Google undercut them by half? There's a reason the supply is so small...

 

[BenSkywalker]

So they had ~100K units built up for launch, within fourteen days of the launch they had production increased by 200% of the initial build up.

What is the big surprise here? Not really grasping it, considering the sales that the prior Nexus phones had I don't think that the initial production target was way out of line, and they rapidly increased production(although clearly still not enough). If it comes out by the end of January they still don't have production trending in the right direction then I would say that indicates a serious issue in management. By any reasonable metric it seems they handled things in an appropriate fashion based on all prior sales data.

 

[Suspicious-Teach8788]

So they had ~100K units built up for launch, within fourteen days of the launch they had production increased by 200% of the initial build up.

What is the big surprise here? Not really grasping it, considering the sales that the prior Nexus phones had I don't think that the initial production target was way out of line, and they rapidly increased production(although clearly still not enough). If it comes out by the end of January they still don't have production trending in the right direction then I would say that indicates a serious issue in management. By any reasonable metric it seems they handled things in an appropriate fashion based on all prior sales data.

The Nexus 7 sold 1 million+ per month. I think they had enough data there. The previous data for the Nexus phones were based on $500+ prices. You'd be an idiot to use the same model for a $299/$349 price point. Furthermore, this isn't a US launch only. It's global launch at a low price point. And given the world loves unlocked phones, it's pretty safe to say launching 70,000 when the iPhone sells 70x of that amount in a weekend is not wise.

And of course by your metrics production will trend upwards in January so you won't think there's a serious issue in management. You throw out numbers like 200%. Great. So if Google built 1 unit and then built 100,000 units the next month, you would applaud that absurdly high % increase? It's as if the 200% is supposed to be a big number that means Google's doing the right thing. The question you should ask is whether a 200% increase is appropriate. Should it have been more? Less? Just right?

To me it's just a bunch of excuses that don't even make sense.

The purpose of the Nexus brand is, and always is, to further the Google brand and set the bar for the latest Android platform. The general PR behind the Nexus 4 release is that it's a great phone, cheap and off contract, and sold out practically everywhere.

And, to be honest, do you really think OEMs would let Google undercut them by half? There's a reason the supply is so small...

So your point? Google should've foreseen this. They managed the price, they also manage the quantity their supplier will build. If there's an issue, they should've resolved it. So really, I don't buy this. Either Google should've negotiated or pushed LG more, or they adjusted pricing to not piss their OEMs off.

 

[Suspicious-Teach8788]

Let's not forget. Where is the wireless charging orb for the Nexus 4? What about that Nexus 7 dock? What about the Nexus 10 pogo pins?

One of the main reasons for going with LG was their experience with wireless charging and what they've designed. Yet we've seen no charger from LG/Google yet. WTF. Talk about horrible launch management.

 

[bonkers325]

Either Google should've negotiated or pushed LG more, or they adjusted pricing to not piss their OEMs off.

That's the point I was making. There is no reason for them to push large volumes of cheap high quality smartphones onto the market. Their objective is not to enter and disrupt the market, it's to further their Nexus brand... which they are doing very well. The first 2 Nexus phones were not very main stream. The Galaxy Nexus become the first widely popular Nexus smartphone. The Nexus 7 expanded the brand into tablet territory. The Nexus 4 just furthers the image of top-end hardware with latest-and-greatest software and no-strings-attached pricing.

 

[BenSkywalker]

The Nexus 7 sold 1 million+ per month. I think they had enough data there.

How is the phone reception on your Nexus 7? What's that? The Nexus 7 isn't a phone and that was an utterly moronic comparison? Fair point.

The previous data for the Nexus phones were based on $500+ prices.

Galaxy Nexus didn't sell all that well at $349. They don't only keep sales data that you want them to, they have sales data at multiple price points.

You throw out numbers like 200%.

How the hell did I throw that number out? Those aren't my numbers, those are from a crazy new thing Apple recently patented called math.

And of course by your metrics production will trend upwards in January so you won't think there's a serious issue in management.

Spoken like someone who has absolutely *no* understanding of a production supply chain. You think you can move a couple hundred thousand *anything* on a couple weeks notice easily? It isn't just a matter of Google calling up LG who happens to be sitting on millions of units of each spare part needed to create these devices, and has the staffing and assembly lines required to make them just standing around in case Google may need them.

I distinctly recall shortages for several generations of iPhones too. Even the Divine seem to have these issues. Google is *very* rapidly ramping production.

To me it's just a bunch of excuses that don't even make sense.

To be quite frank that just shows your ignorance. You let me know when you figure out how to get together an extra ~2 million parts and have them all delivered and assembled with zero staffing on day one.

Does Google have a massive shortage on their hands? Yes. Are they taking every reasonable approach to rectify it, based on these numbers, yes.

Let me ask you this, how many units per day should they be assembling? How much supply should they keep in the pipe, how many new people should they hire and train, how many new trucks should they buy to bring parts in and ship parts out, and how long of a prodcution run should they be shooting for?

Those are only very simple trivial overview type questions, if you can't answer them all, nigh instantly, then you don't have a good answer.

 

[WelshBloke]

That doesn't make any sense either. If they wanted to reduce demand, they would have just priced the phone at US$499 like many people were expecting.

Yeah it does.

What if Google are trying to encourage other manufacturers to use stock android?
What better way than to produce a Google phone that the public are practically fighting over?

Price it too high and it's just another nexus, make too many and you piss off the manufacturers that you are trying to sweeten up.

Anyway this is all speculative.

 

[Ravynmagi]

Yeah it does.

What if Google are trying to encourage other manufacturers to use stock android?
What better way than to produce a Google phone that the public are practically fighting over?

Price it too high and it's just another nexus, make too many and you piss off the manufacturers that you are trying to sweeten up.

Anyway this is all speculative.

Tin foil hat is on a little tight.

 

[WelshBloke]

Tin foil hat is on a little tight.

What? You think Samsung would be happy if Google sold a similarly specced phone to them at half the price and killed their sales?

 

[Skurge]

I remember someone claiming they only had 5,000 units on launch. LoL.

Ramping up production, buy that much when LG is likely focusing production on the Optimus G is impressive.

 

[Sheep]

What about that Nexus 7 dock?

It's apparently finally making its way to the U.S. this year according to an article I read a few days ago.

 

[bigrash]

so who's fault is that?

1) Google for managing this mess.
2) LG for sucking at manufacturing.

I would say both are at fault.

 

[zerocool84]

Why is everyone making this so difficult? No Nexus phone has been this high in demand. No high end phone has been priced like this, I'm sure they didn't know it would sell this well. It's Google's fault, they just didn't expect this.

 

[TuxDave]

Why is everyone making this so difficult? No Nexus phone has been this high in demand. No high end phone has been priced like this, I'm sure they didn't know it would sell this well. It's Google's fault, they just didn't expect this.

I dunno, what if LG is trying to pull a Samsung.

http://www.wired.com/gadgetlab/2010/07/oled-shortage-forces-htc-to-switch-displays/

But yeah, I tend to think that Google probably didn't spec out the right supply chain numbers and now is just hoping LG will just fix everything and churn out N4 like no other.

 

[BrightCandle]

Never assume malice were incompetence will explain everything, the simplest answer is usual the right one (Occam's Razor).

In this case I suspect Google went by previous smart phone sales for setting initial inventory. The massive price reduction obviously drove a lot more volume and unfortunately they are maxing out their capability to deliver hardware. It could all be a trick but I suspect they simply estimated wrong, it happens.