The Preliminary CBO score for HC reform is out

[Carmen813]

*EDIT* Can't edit title. The preliminary numbers are out. I will edit post once full score is posted. (Title temporarily fixed by Fern; Super Moderator)

The preliminary numbers are out.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100318/ap_on_bi_ge/us_health_care_overhaul

CBO letter to Pelosi:
http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/113xx/doc11355/hr4872.pdf


The cliffs:
$940 billion over 10 years in costs.
1.3 trillion over 20 years in deficit reductions.
32 million more people insured (95% of uninsured American citizens)

I'm still looking for a link to the full CBO score. I think these numbers are pretty good, but I imagine someone soon will say they are all bullshit or using "gimmicks".

*Edit* Didn't take long. Paul Ryan is saying the official CBO score isn't actually out yet and that Democrats jumped the gun. See Spideys post below for more details. /popcorn
*Edit2* The full reconciliation bill is available at: http://docs.house.gov/rules/hr4872/111_hr4872_amndsub.pdf

 

[spidey07]

http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MjJiMjFkYjQyMTY4NmMyNDllYzZjNDAxNjVkOWE1ODQ=

House Budget Committee Ranking Republican Paul Ryan responds to an NRO query about the news this morning: “The Congressional Budget Office has confirmed that there is currently no official cost estimate. Yet House Democrats are touting to the press — and spinning for partisan gain — numbers that have not been released and are impossible to confirm. Rep. James Clyburn stated he was 'giddy' about these unsubstantiated numbers. This is the latest outrageous exploitation by the Majority — in this case abusing the confidentiality of the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office — to pass their massive health care overhaul at any cost.”

 

[Tom]

It will work better than expected. It's the key to solving our fiscal problems too.

 

[Carmen813]

http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MjJiMjFkYjQyMTY4NmMyNDllYzZjNDAxNjVkOWE1ODQ=

Just found that out Spidey. I've edited the first post.

 

[rudder]

Hoyer called it the biggest deficit reduction bill since the 1990s, when President Bill Clinton put the federal budget on a path to surplus.

Funny I thought it was Newt Gingrich and the Republican congress that promised to balance the budget back then. Because of this glaring inaccuracy... most of the article can be considered bunk. Not doubting the CBO's initial numbers... I will wait until their methodologies to arrive at those numbers are revealed. And go from there.

 

[shira]

http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MjJiMjFkYjQyMTY4NmMyNDllYzZjNDAxNjVkOWE1ODQ=

And if/when these numbers - or something close to them - are confirmed, we can all assume that you'll be all for Obamacare?

Oh, wait, this is just your latest bogus objection. Silly me.

 

[Carmen813]

Hoyer called it the biggest deficit reduction bill since the 1990s, when President Bill Clinton put the federal budget on a path to surplus.

Funny I thought it was Newt Gingrich and the Republican congress that promised to balance the budget back then. Because of this glaring inaccuracy... most of the article can be considered bunk. Not doubting the CBO's initial numbers... I will wait until their methodologies to arrive at those numbers are revealed. And go from there.

I'm pretty sure the AP article is paraphrasing what Hoyer said, not injecting their own opinion.

 

[werepossum]

It will work better than expected. It's the key to solving our fiscal problems too.

Plus it eliminates male pattern baldness, restores vigor, puts a spring in your step and makes a dandy silver polish. Just like any other snake oil.

We should all remember how the CBO scores bills. If the bill calls for $500 billion from Medicare, that number appears in the scoring. If Obama and Congress cannot summon the political will to force or convince that many oldsters to peaceably off themselves rather than clawing for that last expensive few months, then that $500 billion just never happens - even though it gets counted as bill funding plus as Medicare cost savings.

 

[Carmen813]

And if/when these numbers - or something close to them - are confirmed, we can all assume that you'll be all for Obamacare?

Oh, wait, this is just your latest bogus objection. Silly me.

My guess is that the objection (from anyone opposed) will be that the CBO score used "accounting gimmicks." That's pretty much Paul Ryan's talking point on it.

 

[Genx87]

And if/when these numbers - or something close to them - are confirmed, we can all assume that you'll be all for Obamacare?

Oh, wait, this is just your latest bogus objection. Silly me.

CBO isnt infallible. They still have egg on their face from making a prediction a decade ago we would erase our debt. Sure if we had a ridiculously hot economy like we did in 1999 for another decade it would have come true. But life isnt so simple. And I would take any estimate of deficit and cost reduction with a huge grain of salt. I cant think of a single govt program where that was promised and was delivered.

 

[Carmen813]

Plus it eliminates male pattern baldness, restores vigor, puts a spring in your step and makes a dandy silver polish. Just like any other snake oil.

We should all remember how the CBO scores bills. If the bill calls for $500 billion from Medicare, that number appears in the scoring. If Obama and Congress cannot summon the political will to force or convince that many oldsters to peaceably off themselves rather than clawing for that last expensive few months, then that $500 billion just never happens - even though it gets counted as bill funding plus as Medicare cost savings.

Except that that $500 billion has nothing to do with cutting services, and everything to do with eliminating fraud/waste. Still difficult to obtain, but there is no need for demagoguery.

 

[Carmen813]

CBO isnt infallible. They still have egg on their face from making a prediction a decade ago we would erase our debt. Sure if we had a ridiculously hot economy like we did in 1999 for another decade it would have come true. But life isnt so simple. And I would take any estimate of deficit and cost reduction with a huge grain of salt. I cant think of a single govt program where that was promised and was delivered.

I think you have a valid point, however my fears about this have been somewhat alleviated by the fact that other independent organizations tend to also predict deficit reductions.

Example: http://www.lewin.com/content/publications/SenateHouseBillComparisonFeb2010.DOC

 

[blackangst1]

I wonder how much we could eliminate in fraud/waste/spending if we DIDNT include a $1 trillion spending bill.

Just a thought.

 

[Modelworks]

It will work better than expected. It's the key to solving our fiscal problems too.

And every person signing up for health insurance gets a free tube of ointment.

 

[Modelworks]

CBO isnt infallible. They still have egg on their face from making a prediction a decade ago we would erase our debt. Sure if we had a ridiculously hot economy like we did in 1999 for another decade it would have come true. But life isnt so simple. And I would take any estimate of deficit and cost reduction with a huge grain of salt. I cant think of a single govt program where that was promised and was delivered.

I'm wondering why if the program is so great , where is the final bill so the public can read it ?

 

[GuitarDaddy]

I wonder how much we could eliminate in fraud/waste/spending if we DIDNT include a $1 trillion spending bill.

Just a thought.

Oh probably about as much as we currently eliminate, $0

 

[HannibalX]

It's a great time to be in the insurance business!

 

[Carmen813]

I wonder how much we could eliminate in fraud/waste/spending if we DIDNT include a $1 trillion spending bill.

Just a thought.

Without the power of law behind it, my guess is not nearly as much.

 

[nonlnear]

I wonder how much we could eliminate in fraud/waste/spending if we DIDNT include a $1 trillion spending bill.

Just a thought.

It's worse than that. Part of the "savings" in the bill will actually increase waste/spending - just not on the federal government's books. Shrinking Medicare Advantage just gets the price tag off of the deficit register, but it increases the overall costs to the people.

Not to mention that they aren't going to follow through with the Medicare rate cuts in the bill anyways. They just pull the "mandatory" cuts out of their asses to make the future look rosy. That's something that both sides have been guilty of for a while now.

 

[werepossum]

Except that that $500 billion has nothing to do with cutting services, and everything to do with eliminating fraud/waste. Still difficult to obtain, but there is no need for demagoguery.

So $500 billion in Medicare fraud and waste (which government already completely funds and controls) can be found and removed - but ONLY if the government seizes control of the rest of the health care system? That's bull by-product and you know it. If Obama could remove $500 billion in Medicare fraud and waste without cutting services, he'd do it and then he'd have the single payer system he wants. Hell, he'd be the most popular president in my lifetime.

 

[Carmen813]

I'm wondering why if the program is so great , where is the final bill so the public can read it ?

Senate bill:
http://hdl.loc.gov/loc.uscongress/legislation.111hr3590

The reconciliation bill can only change very specific provisions that affect the deficit.

For example, the government program that would have allowed them to repeal a private insurers premium increase was removed from the reconciliation bill because it did not deal directly with the deficit.

You can't really "add" to the bill using reconciliation, unless it somehow can be shown to reduce the deficit. So the "backroom" deals you are worried about happening most likely won't actually be in this reconciliation bill. That of course doesn't rule out the possibility of pork appearing in new bills yet to come.

 

[nick1985]

It will work better than expected. It's the key to solving our fiscal problems too.

lol

 

[Carmen813]

So $500 billion in Medicare fraud and waste (which government already completely funds and controls) can be found and removed - but ONLY if the government seizes control of the rest of the health care system? That's bull by-product and you know it. If Obama could remove $500 billion in Medicare fraud and waste without cutting services, he'd do it and then he'd have the single payer system he wants. Hell, he'd be the most popular president in my lifetime.

I don't have the exact number, but I believe like $200 billion of that money comes from eliminating the Medicare program that allows seniors to use Medicare funds to purchase private insurance. This was a law created and signed by Republicans, and it has been repeatedly demonstrated to be an utter waste of money. It's called Medicare Advantage, look it up.

You can't do anything about that without changing the law.

A great deal of the waste comes from doctors ordering unnecessary tests. Sometimes these tests are ordered so that the provider can milk some extra money from Medicare (fraud), sometimes because they want to cover their own ass (waste due to defensive medicine). You can't change that without changing the law.

 

[Genx87]

I think you have a valid point, however my fears about this have been somewhat alleviated by the fact that other independent organizations tend to also predict deficit reductions.

Example: http://www.lewin.com/content/publications/SenateHouseBillComparisonFeb2010.DOC

Deficit reductions and cost reductions are two different things. We could have a balanced budget tomorrow if we cut the budget by 1.2 trillion or taxed people by 1.2 trillion. How does that help us with cost though? One of the primary drivers of this reform was to tackle the costs within the system. Simply taxing people for x years before providing a service then claiming we reduced the deficit tells us nothing. Except that we reduced the deficit with another tax.

I dont see how we maintain the current status quo of private entitlement insurance, add more people to the system, and reduce costs. It just doesnt compute.

 

[Genx87]

I'm wondering why if the program is so great , where is the final bill so the public can read it ?

You will get to read it after the no-vote gets it passed. Nancy Pelosi promised us the most ethical congress ever would do so!