The people who don't own home phones.

[Duddy]

I predict atleast a 7% impact. All the polling being done is to old people with home phones. Us youngin's all have only cellphones and we never get any polling calls.

I think the "Generation X factor" will swing the race into a landslide victory for Obama.

 

[OCGuy]

Generation Y, maybe. But they proved in 04 that the young people dont vote as much as they make it seem.

 

[Blackjack200]

Cell phone effect, as well as the Bradley effect, has been pretty much shown to be negligible.

 

[Duddy]

True, but I think it's safe to say that Obama has sparked a fire within young people to vote. There is a sense that, if you don't vote, your putting your own life at risk.

Literally, Vote or Die.

 

[OCGuy]

Originally posted by: Duddy
True, but I think it's safe to say that Obama has sparked a fire within young people to vote. There is a sense that, if you don't vote, your putting your own life at risk.

Literally, Vote or Die.

:roll: So who uses the "fear tactics" again?

 

[nageov3t]

I believe that most polls weight the statistics to account for people with no phones.

 

[Zorba]

Originally posted by: Duddy
True, but I think it's safe to say that Obama has sparked a fire within young people to vote. There is a sense that, if you don't vote, your putting your own life at risk.

Literally, Vote or Die.

My prediction - The young vote with be within a few points of 2004. The youth is always supposedly going to come out in huge numbers but never does.

One problem is the general election is near the end of the fall semester and kids won't make the time for it.

 

[ScottMac]

Rasmussen and Gallop have both said that (to date) it hasn't had any significant effect. However, they do expect the effect to grow in the years to come and they are working on plans to compensate. The hitch is that they cannot cold-call a cell phone.

They might end up paying / compensating known quantity candidates to be able to call them periodically on their phone, or just develope a mathematical model to compensate.