The Pakistani offensive in Swat--lots of claims, little noise

[Lemon law]

We are now a month into the Pakistani army campaign to defeat the Taliban. Lots of claims by the Pakistani army as they now claim they have the Taliban surrounded with escape routes cut off. Yet as the following link shows, imported reporters see little evidence of actual fighting.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/200...NsawNnZW5lcmFscGFraXM-

Meanwhile, there is no doubt that a huge number of local residents have fled as estimated relief needs now exceed a 1/2 a billion dollars.

Meanwhile, on the Afghan side of the border, I see little evidence that Nato is stepping up to the plate and doing its bit to keep turn up the heat on the Taliban.

As for the Taliban, it seems to me, its a question if they will stand and fight, or simply trim their beards and blend with the local population, with an aim of regrouping and coming back as soon as the Pakistani army leaves.

Even though a war may be initially popular, when it turns into a long term slog, it becomes a psychological problem of attitudes and long term commitment. And at least on the Afghan side, the Nato failure has been in finishing what it started WHILE MAKING LIFE BETTER BECAUSE THEY CAME. We know Nato failed at it, now is the start of the acid test, will Pakistan build the local institution that make life better for the people in the Tribal regions needed to retain their support?

Or will the residents of the tribal regions of Pakistan just join their Afghan brethern as a bloody foot ball to be squabbled over between well armed teams in a football game that never ends?

 

[dphantom]

There is much going on in Afghanistan.

Link

As for "pakistan building local institutions that make life better" well, you must not read because SWAT was a tourist haven meaning Pakistanis wanted to go there on vacation because it was nice. Now that the Taliban are in control, people leave in droves.

As for Pakistani military reports, don't believe them. Pakistan has no intention of destroying the Taliban, only to appease US demands for action.

 

[Lemon law]

In the hopes that other would respond, I deferred from posting. But if we look at the link dphantom provided, its hardly evidence of any Nato followup. Other than a few business as usual Nato airstrikes, Nato is not putting any of the boots on the ground needed to win in any matter even resembling the Pakistani commitment. Does Nato really expect to win with the tactics they have? The jury may still be out on the Pakistani army, but Nato wimped out years ago and has been moving backwards ever since day one.

 

[tvarad]

There is a lesson to be learned from Sri-Lanka. The Afghan war is about where the Sri-Lanka war was in the '80s. It took the Sri-Lankans about three decades to say, eff it with all the niceties, we know the LTTE is never going to agree to a peaceful settlement to the problem and take the guys out, despite all the self-serving howls and hollow expressions of horror from all those who were profiting from it immensely. Taking care of refugees/war displaced has become big business nowadays, you know.

It's going to take a little while to know who the antagonists are in this case. Is it the Taliban, is it the ISI, is it the Pakistani army itself who doesn't want this problem to be solved because they profit from it immensely? Until all the REAL enemies that NATO is fighting are all recognized and sorted out, the region will not be fixed.

 

[Lemon law]

Its kinda funny that tvarad says, "It's going to take a little while to know who the antagonists are in this case. Is it the Taliban, is it the ISI, is it the Pakistani army." And in the list of potential villains, he names the Taliban, the Pakistani ISI, the Pakistani army, totally omitting Nato, the corrupt Government and Army of Afghanistan, the various Afghan warlords and drug runners who are the de facto government of much of Afghanistan, and Al-Quida.

Given that cast of characters and I omitted a few, do you really think Nato will be the last man standing if this conflict lasts the 25 years of Sri-Lanka?

In Vietnam, the US led coalition wimped in a decade and Nato is already seven years into moving backwards.

 

[tvarad]

Ok, for arguments sake, let's include all the rest. If this problem is to be solved, the shadow boxing has to stop and the real fight has to begin. That's the only point I"m making because heaven knows you will never be convinced of the direction of the real threat to peace in the region.

 

[The Green Bean]

http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/co...street-fights-erupt-05

They say that the battle for Mingora has begun. Once Mingora falls; I think the situation on the ground will become clearer for everyone.

I now that the US is accepting that Afghan Taliban are crossing over to join the fight; it's THEIR turn to do more!

 

[Lemon law]

Originally posted by: tvarad
Ok, for arguments sake, let's include all the rest. If this problem is to be solved, the shadow boxing has to stop and the real fight has to begin. That's the only point I"m making because heaven knows you will never be convinced of the direction of the real threat to peace in the region.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
It has to be pretty obvious by now that tvarad has one main dog in the fight and that is India.

And has somewhat of a right to chortle his head off as Nato has a huge role in destabilizing both Afghanistan and Pakistan, while leaving India alone.

Well guess what Tvarad, if Nato does succeed in destabilizing Pakistan as badly as it has Afghanistan, its going to be extremely likely that India will be the next lucky country to get that
offer they can't refuse from Nato. Try it, I bet you will not like it.

And if you want to know where I am coming from, I oppose Nato imperialism, and think any final solution has to come from the local governments of Afghanistan and Pakistan. Nato as a foreign entity, will always be counterproductive, in and by itself.

And if you had a unbiased brain in your head Tvarad, after seven years, you would realize I am right.

 

[Whitecloak]

Originally posted by: Lemon law

Originally posted by: tvarad
Ok, for arguments sake, let's include all the rest. If this problem is to be solved, the shadow boxing has to stop and the real fight has to begin. That's the only point I"m making because heaven knows you will never be convinced of the direction of the real threat to peace in the region.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
It has to be pretty obvious by now that tvarad has one main dog in the fight and that is India.

And has somewhat of a right to chortle his head off as Nato has a huge role in destabilizing both Afghanistan and Pakistan, while leaving India alone.

Well guess what Tvarad, if Nato does succeed in destabilizing Pakistan as badly as it has Afghanistan, its going to be extremely likely that India will be the next lucky country to get that
offer they can't refuse from Nato. Try it, I bet you will not like it.

And if you want to know where I am coming from, I oppose Nato imperialism, and think any final solution has to come from the local governments of Afghanistan and Pakistan. Nato as a foreign entity, will always be counterproductive, in and by itself.

And if you had a unbiased brain in your head Tvarad, after seven years, you would realize I am right.

what are your credentials on the sub-continent?

 

[The Green Bean]

PESHAWAR: Security forces have taken control of several strategic places in Swat main town, Mingora, while conducting an operation against the militants in Malakand.

Several militants were reportedly killed in security forces action in hilly areas of Tehsil Maidan of Dir Lower.

Security forces have secured several key areas in the Taliban-held main town of the Swat valley as they battle to gain control of the capital of the northwestern district, officials said Sunday. The ground assault on Mingora, a city with an estimated population of about 300,000 -- many of whom have fled -- marks the most crucial part of the military's blistering offensive against the Taliban in the scenic valley.

Officials said they had taken control of several important intersections and three squares in Mingora, including the notorious Green Square where the Islamist extremists reportedly carried out beheadings late last year.

A curfew remained in place in the city and gunfire could be heard, the official said, but there was no shelling overnight.

Security forces bombed militants? hideouts at several places including Tehsil Kabal?s areas Kotli, Matta and Peuchar, but no casualty report was received. People were seen moving out for safer places, as persistent curfew has caused acute shortage of medicines and other daily-use items.

Dir Lower media center said that curfew will remain relaxed from 7.00 A.m. to 4.00 P.M., but there would be no curfew break in Chakra and Gulabad.

And India is now claiming China a bigger threat than Pakistan. Peacelovers? My ass

 

[Lemon law]

A somewhat clueless Whitecloak asks, "what are your credentials on the sub-continent?"

As if credentials are any panacea against getting it wrong. Just as a one example out of many though experiment, Whitecloak might quickly review the Lyndon Johnson and Richard Nixon era cast of characters, the various set of poo-bahs who helped formulate Vietnam policy. Now there are some folks who had credentials, for a Guy who looked like a General, one would look far to find anyone more impressive than William Westmoreland, Hollywood could not do better, for sheer brains in a sec of defense, McNamera had it all over Rumsfeld, but at the end of a decade or so, the USA sailed home, we called it peace with honor, but what did we win?

As the USA simply joined a long list of other superpowers who did not understand Vietnamese nationalism and got the ole heave ho in due time.

 

[tvarad]

TGB,
As the current crisis shows, the only thing the Pakistani army is good at is invading it's own country (other than starting fights that others finish for it or surrendering en-masse). Don't keep trumpeting it as some kind of success.

 

[Whitecloak]

Originally posted by: Lemon law
A somewhat clueless Whitecloak asks, "what are your credentials on the sub-continent?"

As if credentials are any panacea against getting it wrong. Just as a one example out of many though experiment, Whitecloak might quickly review the Lyndon Johnson and Richard Nixon era cast of characters, the various set of poo-bahs who helped formulate Vietnam policy. Now there are some folks who had credentials, for a Guy who looked like a General, one would look far to find anyone more impressive than William Westmoreland, Hollywood could not do better, for sheer brains in a sec of defense, McNamera had it all over Rumsfeld, but at the end of a decade or so, the USA sailed home, we called it peace with honor, but what did we win?

As the USA simply joined a long list of other superpowers who did not understand Vietnamese nationalism and got the ole heave ho in due time.

so more BS from you. why dont you just accept that you are yet another armchair general making statements about something he doesnt know anything about?

have you been outside the US? Have you visited another country? Have you interacted with other cultures?

 

[tvarad]

Originally posted by: Lemon law
A somewhat clueless Whitecloak asks, "what are your credentials on the sub-continent?"

As if credentials are any panacea against getting it wrong. Just as a one example out of many though experiment, Whitecloak might quickly review the Lyndon Johnson and Richard Nixon era cast of characters, the various set of poo-bahs who helped formulate Vietnam policy. Now there are some folks who had credentials, for a Guy who looked like a General, one would look far to find anyone more impressive than William Westmoreland, Hollywood could not do better, for sheer brains in a sec of defense, McNamera had it all over Rumsfeld, but at the end of a decade or so, the USA sailed home, we called it peace with honor, but what did we win?

As the USA simply joined a long list of other superpowers who did not understand Vietnamese nationalism and got the ole heave ho in due time.

Yeah, last I hear, Joan Baez is re-stringing her guitar to sing about the plight of the beards in Guantanamo Bay, college campuses are full of turmoil about the draft and Obama just said "I ain't got nothing against the Taliban" and is considering withdrawing troops. Now all we need is a Hanoi Jane. I'm thinking Hillary Duff but Kabul Hillary just doesn't have the same ring to it.

I'm amazed I didn't spot the similarities too.

 

[Lemon law]

Ah yes, tvarad, revives the old Vietnam denial, if only Jane Fonda had not spoken out, we would have won. But shit, who could deny the sex sells message of Jane v. tricky Dick.

Or has tvardad just revived that old Greek idea, if you don't like the message, kill the messenger.

 

[Lemon law]

The new development is now from the Pakistani Taliban, who now say they will not try to fight the Pakistani army for control. While short of a call for a cease fire, the Pakistani Taliban are calling for refugees to return, which guess what, will help the Taliban to hide among the people.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/200...p_on_re_as/as_pakistan

Which somewhat kicks the can back to where it always was, the Pakistani central government is the recognized entity with the authority to govern the tribal areas, the Taliban is going to be more reluctant to test the Pakistani army, but I do not see it as the Taliban going away either as they are going to try to be long term survivors. Bringing it back to the original question, is the Pakistani army going to stay and build the long term governmental institutions that will ensure their continual sovereignty, or will the Pakistani army, honor satisfied, leave and allow the Taliban to regroup.

And if the local residents come back, manage to resume their normal lives for some extended period, and if a less aggressive local Pakistani Talibam continues to be a nuisance for Nato in Afghanistan, who will catch the blame from the local people if the Pakistani army and Nato resume aggressive
bombing raids, and thus causing a new refugee problem as the local residents again have to flee.

 

[The Green Bean]

Originally posted by: Lemon law
The new development is now from the Pakistani Taliban, who now say they will not try to fight the Pakistani army for control. While short of a call for a cease fire, the Pakistani Taliban are calling for refugees to return, which guess what, will help the Taliban to hide among the people.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/200...p_on_re_as/as_pakistan

Which somewhat kicks the can back to where it always was, the Pakistani central government is the recognized entity with the authority to govern the tribal areas, the Taliban is going to be more reluctant to test the Pakistani army, but I do not see it as the Taliban going away either as they are going to try to be long term survivors. Bringing it back to the original question, is the Pakistani army going to stay and build the long term governmental institutions that will ensure their continual sovereignty, or will the Pakistani army, honor satisfied, leave and allow the Taliban to regroup.

And if the local residents come back, manage to resume their normal lives for some extended period, and if a less aggressive local Pakistani Talibam continues to be a nuisance for Nato in Afghanistan, who will catch the blame from the local people if the Pakistani army and Nato resume aggressive
bombing raids, and thus causing a new refugee problem as the local residents again have to flee.

Lemon Law; this time the ARMY and not the paramilitary forces will stay for a while and I think that means 10-15 years if necassary. And the moment the Taliban restart their violent activities; the nation will be behind the security forces who will go in before they are able to establish a foothold. The current situation only arose because most people in Pakistan were in support of the Taliban because they were under the guise of the Sharia. Now; anybody seen in arms will be short at sight. I also think the local police will be given better training and equipment to tackle the Taliban. Most Taliban heavy weapons would have been captured by the army and I hope that they are able to block new supplies from flowing in from "foreign intelligence agencies" in Afghanistan. This time things will be different. There was so much skepticism with members of this forum saying that members of the army will defect or desert. Nothing as such happened. Now if the Pakistani military could remove the network of militancy across their land it would be great. I think they will now realize that relying on militants for strategic depth is only counterproductive. I don't see India being able to win outright in any war to gain too much territory and I don't think they will risk it. We need to build our economy and conventional weapon strength rather than militants to counter India. Now if India realized that no country will be able to make any inroads into Kashmir and accepted the LOC as a permanent border; all problems would be solved. The fact is if there was a referendum in Indian occupied Kashmir most districts would opt to join Pakistan or for independence. So what does India have to gain from Kashmir? I think even if Kashmir joins an India; it would weaken the already insurgent-stung Indian union.

 

[Lemon law]

I am not sure if I can agree with TGB's optimism when he says, "Lemon Law; this time the ARMY and not the paramilitary forces will stay for a while and I think that means 10-15 years if necessary. And the moment the Taliban restart their violent activities; the nation will be behind the security forces who will go in before they are able to establish a foothold."

While I agree that if the Pakistani army is willing to stay and build the institutions, there is no danger to Pakistan posed by the Taliban. The problem is and remains, the Taliban danger to Nato and Afghanistan. The Taliban is likely to learn its big lesson in the tribal areas of Pakistan, do not try to assert control in a country where the Taliban has at best guest status. But that lesson has little to do with the Taliban keeping its eyes on the prize which is and remains Afghan control.

And as long as Nato remains ineffectual at controlling the many insurgencies in Afghanistan, and does nothing to fight the corruption and anarchy that feed those insurgencies within Afghanistan, Nato will continue to knee jerk blame the tribal areas of Pakistan as ground zero of the insurgencies. And continue bombing Pakistani soil while pressuring the Pakistani government to do the same. And if the next time major violence occurs in the tribal areas, in the eyes of the local residents of the tribal areas of Pakistan, the Taliban are in no way the villains, guess who will get the blame from the locals?

 

[tvarad]

Lemon Law,
Stop talking through your a*s about things you know very little about. The fundamental problem in Swat as well as other unstable areas (though I wonder if there is any stable area in Pakistan) is the same as elsewhere: the hopeless divide between the feudal rich and the abject poor. So far, the Pakistani government has swept this family secret under the rug by painting those areas as rugged, independent blah,blah,blah and so are not very governable. Whereas in reality, they are little more than colonies for the Punjabi fat-cats who would rather play geo-political chess than take development into those regions. And to keep the people barefoot and pregnant, they thought up the brilliant idea of feeding them religion laced with militarism while they were swigging the pegs away at Rawalpindi HQ. That is the gist of the problem. These fellows have no concept of building lasting institutions; if they did Pakistan would not have been in such dire straits. This will be nothing more than a military occupation unless NATO is able to drum some social sense into these retards.

At least the countries behind NATO have made a pledge of billions of dollars to uplift these poverty-ridden areas but you can rest assured that about one or two cents of each of those dollars will actually reach the people who need it. Most of it will be siphoned off and invested in plutonium producing reactors, copies of long-dong-nong missiles, lining pockets and other perversions. And everything will be back to square one in a few years with NATO wringing it's hands about what went wrong.

 

[Red Irish]

Originally posted by: tvarad
Lemon Law,
Stop talking through your a*s about things you know very little about. The fundamental problem in Swat as well as other unstable areas (though I wonder if there is any stable area in Pakistan) is the same as elsewhere: the hopeless divide between the feudal rich and the abject poor. So far, the Pakistani government has swept this family secret under the rug by painting those areas as rugged, independent blah,blah,blah and so are not very governable. Whereas in reality, they are little more than colonies for the Punjabi fat-cats who would rather play geo-political chess than take development into those regions. And to keep the people barefoot and pregnant, they thought up the brilliant idea of feeding them religion laced with militarism while they were swigging the pegs away at Rawalpindi HQ. That is the gist of the problem. These fellows have no concept of building lasting institutions; if they did Pakistan would not have been in such dire straits. This will be nothing more than a military occupation unless NATO is able to drum some social sense into these retards.

At least the countries behind NATO have made a pledge of billions of dollars to uplift these poverty-ridden areas but you can rest assured that about one or two cents of each of those dollars will actually reach the people who need it. Most of it will be siphoned off and invested in plutonium producing reactors, copies of long-dong-nong missiles, lining pockets and other perversions. And everything will be back to square one in a few years with NATO wringing it's hands about what went wrong.

I am sorry to say that I believe you are right.

 

[The Green Bean]

Now the army is moving into Waziristan. http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/co...south-waziristan-qs-05

I think this is far more dangerous than the settled area. There is NO law here and the laws made by the federal government hold little value. They can conduct small scale operations against the Taliban but as far as settlements are concerned; they will be better off not messing with the tribes.

 

[The Green Bean]

Originally posted by: tvarad
Lemon Law,
Stop talking through your a*s about things you know very little about. The fundamental problem in Swat as well as other unstable areas (though I wonder if there is any stable area in Pakistan) is the same as elsewhere: the hopeless divide between the feudal rich and the abject poor. So far, the Pakistani government has swept this family secret under the rug by painting those areas as rugged, independent blah,blah,blah and so are not very governable. Whereas in reality, they are little more than colonies for the Punjabi fat-cats who would rather play geo-political chess than take development into those regions. And to keep the people barefoot and pregnant, they thought up the brilliant idea of feeding them religion laced with militarism while they were swigging the pegs away at Rawalpindi HQ. That is the gist of the problem. These fellows have no concept of building lasting institutions; if they did Pakistan would not have been in such dire straits. This will be nothing more than a military occupation unless NATO is able to drum some social sense into these retards.

At least the countries behind NATO have made a pledge of billions of dollars to uplift these poverty-ridden areas but you can rest assured that about one or two cents of each of those dollars will actually reach the people who need it. Most of it will be siphoned off and invested in plutonium producing reactors, copies of long-dong-nong missiles, lining pockets and other perversions. And everything will be back to square one in a few years with NATO wringing it's hands about what went wrong.

This time the federal government stayed out of the province's affairs until they were asked by the provincial government themselves to do something. I think the federal government has been considerably weakened in the recent years by:

1) Media
2) security problems
3) growing middle class
4) struggles within the ruling class
5) independent judiciary
6) Division of power between the President and Prime minister
7) The Baloch insurgency
8) Taliban

There is no doubt that Pubjab and Sindh are the two well off provinces but they have 90% of the population as well. I don't blame the punjabis for the situation in the NWFP but I think the Pakhtuns themselves are reluctant to send their children to school which is the root of the problem. However things are changing. Corruption is a huge problem but where is it not? I don't know about high-level corruption in India but the local policemen in Mumbai are far more willing to accept a few notes for breaching security and traffic measures than those in Karachi. Tvarad you talk like India is light years ahead of Pakistan when it is obvious that they are on the same plane.

And if the Paktuns moved to India 80% would be considered "middle class" by Indian standards. The poverty level across the border is just unbelievable. I feel sad for them.

 

[EagleKeeper]

Please do not let this thread get turned into a comparison between India and PAkistan standard of living.

Start a seperate thread for such if desired.


Senior Anandtech Moderator
Common Courtesy

 

[heyheybooboo]

Pakistani Taliban offers to return to failed peace deal

The Pakistani Taliban ? being pressed hard by the Pakistani military ? said Tuesday it wants to return to a peace deal that recently collapsed.

That collapse spark the ongoing massive military operation, a Taliban spokesman said Tuesday.

Taliban militants in Swat Valley have announced that they are willing to disarm if the government allows sharia, or Islamic law, to be implemented in the region, a spokesman for Taliban mediator Sufi Mohammed said.

Pakistan?s government rejected the offer, saying the Taliban must pull out of Swat or face arrest, state information minister Syed Sumsam Ali Shah Bukhari said Tuesday. According to Bukhari, the offer shows that the Taliban?s morale is down and they are retreating.

 

[tvarad]

From the same CNN report as above:

"The military operation against the Taliban in northwest Pakistan has resulted in the exodus of more than 2 million civilians since May 2.

The United Nations estimates that it?s the biggest movement of people in Pakistan since the country was formed in 1947. It is also believed to be the fastest population flight in the world since the Rwandan genocide in 1994."

That's some set of rose-colored glasses that TGB/Lemon Law are wearing. Wow! It's starting to be comparable to the exodus of 8 million Bangladeshis into India in 1971.