The one marker that indicates who was a good President

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HomerJS

HomerJS

Lifer
Feb 6, 2002
36,056
27,785
136
Wondering why you singled out Carter? Look at where Carter started vs Nixon.
 
Thump553

Thump553

Lifer
Jun 2, 2000
12,678
2,430
126
Carter (and Ford before him) inherited major inflation from LBJ and Nixon, both of whom decided to conduct a major war without funding it (sound familiar?). It took the better part of a decade and a whole lot of pain to get that inflation under control. Much like his spiritual successor, The Donald, Reagan reaped the benefits of what Carter (and to a lesser extent Ford) did to reverse inflation.. Unfortunately the modern American electorate has a very short term memory and next to no concept of cause and effect. If a problem involves sacrifice or pain to resolve, the President who undertakes that effort is damned and the trickster claims all the credit.

I'm betting Trump's misery index will be low, assuming that the mega-recession/depression he is seeding doesn't take effect until he is gone, and also assuming he doesn't trigger a nuclear war or world war. All of those assumptions are based on hope and prayer. Trump is a classic GOP case of cutting taxes by borrowing, doing absolutely nothing to fix current problems (like infrastructure, rampant gun violence, etc), ramping up government expense on pie in the sky programs (the Trump wall, starting a new nuclear arms race, rampant government corruption, etc) -having dessert now while passing the costs down to our kids.

If we could string together two or three responsible, practical presidents in a row (regardless of party) we'd be much better off
 
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pmv

Lifer
May 30, 2008
13,050
7,978
136
Seems dumb to think a US president has very much control over the global, or even US, economy.

Generally there's a regression to the norm, I think - if you take over when things are bad, unless you go out of your way to screw up, things are more likely to get better than worse. Conversely, if things are going well, then, especially if you serve two terms, its likely things will have declined by the time you quit.

Social and economic forces are lot bigger than any one guy.

Of course that does leave the question of how any President's job performance can really be judged. Certainly not by any simple number, that's for sure. Performance-related pay probably would be a bad idea.
 
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pmv

Lifer
May 30, 2008
13,050
7,978
136
"OK, I did start a nuclear war with China and much of the globe is now a radioactive wasteland...but on the plus side, unemployment is way down hence my misery index is looking great!"
 
Jaskalas

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
33,445
7,506
136
Skunk-Works said:
The misery index!
http://www.miseryindex.us/indexbyPresident.aspx

Look at Carter, holy shit!
Click to expand...

That makes no sense for it to peak at the end of Carter's term. The oil embargo created lines for gas, and the economy was !@#$ during that turmoil. Wasn't it? I'd define him as a one term President for this very reason. People were miserable.

Chapter 8: Carter Administration, 1977-1981
...massive cost-of-living increases stimulated by huge oil price hikes in the Middle East soon dominated the Administration's domestic agenda. There was little it could do to control inflation, which soon reached double-digit levels.​
 
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pmv

Lifer
May 30, 2008
13,050
7,978
136
Jaskalas said:
That makes no sense for it to peak at the end of Carter's term. The oil embargo created lines for gas, and the economy was !@#$ during that turmoil. Wasn't it? I'd define him as a one term President for this very reason. People were miserable.

Chapter 8: Carter Administration, 1977-1981
...massive cost-of-living increases stimulated by huge oil price hikes in the Middle East soon dominated the Administration's domestic agenda. There was little it could do to control inflation, which soon reached double-digit levels.​
Click to expand...

Yeah, the more I think about it the more absurd this metric appears. There's the little matter of 'events, dear boy, events' as Harold Macmillan put it (when asked what a politician most feared).

Though I was just reading about how, when retrospectively judging an experience, people put a greatly disproportionate emphasis on how it was right at the end (e.g. if it's a painful medical procedure, it's remembered more favourably if there's an extra bit added on at the end that doesn't hurt, even when the rest of the experience was identical). I suppose Carter suffers rather from that.

Conversely, it seems like the way to be remembered as a great leader is to be in charge when your country wins a war. Absolutely everything else gets forgotten compared to that, no matter how appalling (e.g. even Stalin has his die-hard fans in Russia). People are not very rational, which makes the whole problem of how you decide what people actually want kind of tricky.
 
FIVR

FIVR

Diamond Member
Jun 1, 2016
3,753
911
106
It's a pretty stupid way to measure a presidency considering how little the US president has to do with the world economy.
 
IronWing

IronWing

No Lifer
Jul 20, 2001
69,049
26,927
136
Carter did the one thing that finally harnessed inflation (appointed Paul Volcker to the Fed) but it took awhile to kick in and produced the recession in the early 80s.
 
GagHalfrunt

GagHalfrunt

Lifer
Apr 19, 2001
25,297
2,000
126
Presidents are like umpires. The less you notice them the better they're doing their job. They should call in the Anonymity Index. Mister we could use a man like Millard Fillmore again.
 
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BoomerD

BoomerD

No Lifer
Feb 26, 2006
62,907
11,299
136
Jaskalas said:
That makes no sense for it to peak at the end of Carter's term. The oil embargo created lines for gas, and the economy was !@#$ during that turmoil. Wasn't it? I'd define him as a one term President for this very reason. People were miserable.

Chapter 8: Carter Administration, 1977-1981
...massive cost-of-living increases stimulated by huge oil price hikes in the Middle East soon dominated the Administration's domestic agenda. There was little it could do to control inflation, which soon reached double-digit levels.​
Click to expand...

Keep in mind...the oil embargo started in 1973...gasoline prices nearly doubled overnight, gas rationing (odd-even days, number of gallons per vehicle, etc) LONG lines at gas stations, and even gas stations with no gasoline...none of that can be handed to Carter, but it definitely affected inflation, the US economy, and his presidency...following the draw-down in the military after the Vietnam war, unemployment went up while prices also kept climbing. (Remember, high oil prices affect MUCH more than just the price of fuel)
 
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Thump553

Thump553

Lifer
Jun 2, 2000
12,678
2,430
126
BoomerD said:
Keep in mind...the oil embargo started in 1973...gasoline prices nearly doubled overnight, gas rationing (odd-even days, number of gallons per vehicle, etc) LONG lines at gas stations, and even gas stations with no gasoline...none of that can be handed to Carter, but it definitely affected inflation, the US economy, and his presidency...following the draw-down in the military after the Vietnam war, unemployment went up while prices also kept climbing. (Remember, high oil prices affect MUCH more than just the price of fuel)
Click to expand...

OPEC's power didn't end with the end of the 1973 oil embargo. But OPEC retained their near monopoly control for much of the next two plus decades. Per the Department of Energy the average price of gas (including taxes) was 39 cents in 1973 and had risen to $1.31 per gallon by 1981. The oil embargo was an electric shock, the next twenty years was a steady stranglehold.

https://www.energy.gov/eere/vehicle...storical-annual-gasoline-pump-price-1929-2015
 
BoomerD

BoomerD

No Lifer
Feb 26, 2006
62,907
11,299
136
Thump553 said:
OPEC's power didn't end with the end of the 1973 oil embargo. But OPEC retained their near monopoly control for much of the next two plus decades. Per the Department of Energy the average price of gas (including taxes) was 39 cents in 1973 and had risen to $1.31 per gallon by 1981. The oil embargo was an electric shock, the next twenty years was a steady stranglehold.

https://www.energy.gov/eere/vehicle...storical-annual-gasoline-pump-price-1929-2015
Click to expand...

Yep...I had to deal with it every day...getting enough gasoline to drive to work was sometimes a challenge...

hell, I remember the days when gas stations had "gas wars." Station A would drop their price 2 cents/gallon to attract customers, station B would drop 3 cents....Station A would drop another 2 cents...for a couple of days, gas prices would drop from ~30 cents/gallon to 20-25 cents...then prices would go back up. AND...they used to give customers things, just for doing business there. Glassware, dish sets (one piece with 8 gallon purchase!) pots & pans, S&H trading stamps...all sorts of things. Nowadays, you're lucky if they even give you a "Thank You." (of course, nowadays, most of us pay at the pump and never even see the station workers)
 
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