~~~The Official New Hampshire Primary Thread~~~

[techs]

Originally posted by: techs
I will look for the link and show how MSNBC's exit polls showed it Obama 40 percent to Clintons 34 percent.
Remember those numbers!

Here's the link:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21225995/

Why is there a difference between the exit polls and the actual votes?
Historically African-American candidates do worse in actual elections in predominately white areas than they do in polls. (Anywhere from 1-5 percentage points worse)
The only logical conclusion is that Americans are more willing to say they will vote for an African American than actually vote for an African American.

 

[Stoneburner]

this is odd... the clinton camp essentially conceded NH with their rhetoric the past 2 days. I really dont care one way or the other but i thought NH was trending heavy Obama.

 

[BradT]

Originally posted by: techs

Originally posted by: techs
I will look for the link and show how MSNBC's exit polls showed it Obama 40 percent to Clintons 34 percent.
Remember those numbers!

Here's the link:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21225995/

Why is there a difference between the exit polls and the actual votes?
Historically African-American candidates do worse in actual elections in predominately white areas than they do in polls. (Anywhere from 1-5 percentage points worse)
The only logical conclusion is that Americans are more willing to say they will vote for an African American than actually vote for an African American.

Exit polls are when they simply ask the voters who they voted for as they left

 

[Jinru]

Explanations as to why polls are skewed...

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=256_1199301957

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PiiaBqwqkXs

http://itpolicy.princeton.edu/voting/

 

[techs]

Originally posted by: BradT

Originally posted by: techs

Originally posted by: techs
I will look for the link and show how MSNBC's exit polls showed it Obama 40 percent to Clintons 34 percent.
Remember those numbers!

Here's the link:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21225995/

Why is there a difference between the exit polls and the actual votes?
Historically African-American candidates do worse in actual elections in predominately white areas than they do in polls. (Anywhere from 1-5 percentage points worse)
The only logical conclusion is that Americans are more willing to say they will vote for an African American than actually vote for an African American.

Exit polls are when they simply ask the voters who they voted for as they left

I know. And even they show a disconnect between who people say they voted for and who they actually voted for when it comes to African Americans.
Perhaps more surprising is that in secret ballot type polls the same inconsistency occurs.

 

[AliasX]

Exactly as the above poster said. And they miss voters and some voters lie.

 

[glugglug]

Some of the statistics on CNN's site astound me:
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/20...polls/index.html#NHREP

2% of Ron Paul voters think the next president should continue Bush's policies? WTF are they smoking?

Even stranger, (since its more than just a few nuts), McCain wins by a much larger margin among voters AGAINST the war in Iraq. WTF?

 

[Farang]

I was worried that all the coverage about Obama's inevitable win might hurt his turnout. This is a bad day

 

[nageov3t]

wooooooosh

what's that? oh yeah, the sound of 18 million of Romney's own money down the drain.

guess who's sleeping on the couch tonight?

 

[miketheidiot]

Originally posted by: JEDIYoda

Originally posted by: miketheidiot

Originally posted by: Pabster
Funny, now, to see people disparaging Iowa. Like Hillary. One day Iowa is great, the next they are meaningless. Talk about transparent politicians.

I predict there will be a lot of New Hampshire haters coming very soon as well, as Dr. Paul and the like go down hard. Two in a row won't be meaningless, and it very well could be the end of the line for the Clinton Express.

who is your candidate of choice then? Thompson? Or are you just trolling (again)?

You ask Pabster who his candidate is and you use word troll as if you are very familiar with that term...perhaps a Ron whats his name zealot??

Actually to be honest it is way too early to support any one candidate 100%......thye election process is young....
Let them weed themselves out a little then ask a question that for some the answer could change a few times.

Peace....

I actually don't like rp much at all, but he is probably my second choice as far as republicans go.

 

[BarneyFife]

Originally posted by: loki8481
wooooooosh

what's that? oh yeah, the sound of 18 million of Romney's own money down the drain.

guess who's sleeping on the couch tonight?

Tax write-off.

 

[techs]

Originally posted by: techs

Originally posted by: BradT

Originally posted by: techs

Originally posted by: techs
I will look for the link and show how MSNBC's exit polls showed it Obama 40 percent to Clintons 34 percent.
Remember those numbers!

Here's the link:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21225995/

Why is there a difference between the exit polls and the actual votes?
Historically African-American candidates do worse in actual elections in predominately white areas than they do in polls. (Anywhere from 1-5 percentage points worse)
The only logical conclusion is that Americans are more willing to say they will vote for an African American than actually vote for an African American.

Exit polls are when they simply ask the voters who they voted for as they left

I know. And even they show a disconnect between who people say they voted for and who they actually voted for when it comes to African Americans.
Perhaps more surprising is that in secret ballot type polls the same inconsistency occurs.

I started a thread on this effect:
http://forums.anandtech.com/me...=2139990&enterthread=y

 

[Corbett]

So what happened to all the paulbots saying he was going to take 1st or 2nd in NH? Almost. Time to find a new savior.

 

[techs]

Originally posted by: Corbett
So what happened to all the paulbots saying he was going to take 1st or 2nd in NH? Almost. Time to find a new savior.

Quite frankly the paulbots were either knowing liars or complete idiots.
Either way they are no longer relevant.

 

[Wreckem]

Originally posted by: Farang
I was worried that all the coverage about Obama's inevitable win might hurt his turnout. This is a bad day

It aint over, alot of the areas reporting were expected to go to Clinton. They arent going to be able to call this race until 75% of the vote is in. If Obama hasnt caught up by 60% reporting he probably couldnt.

 

[Corbett]

Originally posted by: techs

Originally posted by: Corbett
So what happened to all the paulbots saying he was going to take 1st or 2nd in NH? Almost. Time to find a new savior.

Quite frankly the paulbots were either knowing liars or complete idiots.
Either way they are no longer relevant.

Were they ever relevant?

I'm glad we finally agree on something techs.

 

[Wreckem]

Originally posted by: techs

Originally posted by: Corbett
So what happened to all the paulbots saying he was going to take 1st or 2nd in NH? Almost. Time to find a new savior.

Quite frankly the paulbots were either knowing liars or complete idiots.
Either way they are no longer relevant.

When were they relevant outside of their own minds? Answer? Never.

 

[Farang]

Originally posted by: Wreckem

Originally posted by: Farang
I was worried that all the coverage about Obama's inevitable win might hurt his turnout. This is a bad day

It aint over, alot of the areas reporting were expected to go to Clinton. They arent going to be able to call this race until 75% of the vote is in. If Obama hasnt caught up by 60% reporting he probably couldnt.

I was thinking the only explanation was that Obama areas are being counted last, but I haven't heard that in any of the coverage so I'm really worried. To me, Clinton is worse than Romney. I'll be forced to vote for whatever dumbass Republican is running if she get the nomination, and that is really scary.

 

[ranmaniac]

RP will have to run as an indpendent at this point imo. I don't see him winning the election, but I think he could get more votes than Ralph Nader did during the 2000 election, which was enough to give GWB the election.

 

[Wreckem]

Originally posted by: Farang

Originally posted by: Wreckem

Originally posted by: Farang
I was worried that all the coverage about Obama's inevitable win might hurt his turnout. This is a bad day

It aint over, alot of the areas reporting were expected to go to Clinton. They arent going to be able to call this race until 75% of the vote is in. If Obama hasnt caught up by 60% reporting he probably couldnt.

I was thinking the only explanation was that Obama areas are being counted last, but I haven't heard that in any of the coverage so I'm really worried. To me, Clinton is worse than Romney. I'll be forced to vote for whatever dumbass Republican is running if she get the nomination, and that is really scary.

They showed a map, very few areas are actually in and those that are were in the areas Clinton was expected to carry. When there was 33% reporting almost NONE of Western NH was in which is where Obama will win handily. That said they compared it to Bill Bradley in '00, it appears NH could break exactly the same way. If it does Obama is screwed, but its way to earlier to tell. If Hillary was up by 10%, you could call it for her, but there are A LOT of votes out there, and ALOT of them are independents.


Its starting to narrow. 39 to 37. Obama will win based on exit polls, but probably by no more than 3%. I guess I was wrong on the 15%. Heh. oh well I just don't want to see Clinton get the nomination.

 

[Vic]

Originally posted by: techs

Originally posted by: Corbett
So what happened to all the paulbots saying he was going to take 1st or 2nd in NH? Almost. Time to find a new savior.

Quite frankly the paulbots were either knowing liars or complete idiots.
Either way they are no longer relevant.

I just love how Paul can put supposedly opposing extremists in bed with each other.

 

[Farang]

John McCain is a terrible public speaker. "God bless you av you av blessed me"

 

[miketheidiot]

obama has cut hillary's lead by 1500 votes in the last 4% of the counted vote

edit: nvm its swung back out

 

[reeserock]

This will likely be a 1 or 2 point win/lose between Clinton/Obama so both will claim a victory when it all said and done. Even if it's a 5 point or less margin they will also.

 

[Wreckem]

Originally posted by: reeserock
This will likely be a 1 or 2 point win/lose between Clinton/Obama so both will claim a victory when it all said and done. Even if it's a 5 point or less margin they will also.

Yeah but if Obama loses, its really a HUGE LOSS.