Being a lifelong Giants fan, I think this year the team may surprise a few people during a year of transition and what seems to be Bonds' last season (with the Giants at least). Expectations aren't has high this season due to age of their position players and question marks in the bullpen. New manager Bruce Bochy should inject new life into the team as the former manager Felipe Alou had trouble relating to his players last year. Most experts will probably pick the Giants to finish 3rd or 4th behind San Diego and Los Angeles (and maybe Arizona). However, behind the strength of their starters they may be able to contend for a division title. Here's my breakdown of the team's components:
Starting Pitching:
The main focus will be on the 126 million dollar man Barry Zito. Many fans will argue that the Giants overpaid for Zito; while they may be correct, my motto is "it ain't my money" (well, not directly anyways, that $10 dollar beer might be $12 in the near future.). I don't know what kind of numbers he will put up, but I think as long as he pitches > 210 innings the Giants will be successful. One development to watch is his radical experimentation of new throwing mechanics. Matt Cain, the #2 starter could be poised for a breakout season. He will have to improve finishing off hitters with two strikes. This may be done by better location of his fastball, or honing his curve ball or change up. Noah Lowry probably has a lot to prove this season as his career so far has been really inconsistent. Expect for him to be involved in many trade rumors if his performance is not up to par in the first two months of the regular season. Matt Morris should improve from his rather poor 2006 due to an injury he was pitching through that has healed since. The battle for number 5 starting spot may come down to young bullpen'er Johnathan Sanchez or last year's starter Brad Hennessey. Don't count out the Giants #1 draft pick Tim Lincecum who has been compared to Roy Oswalt of Houston due to his slight of build and blazing fastball battling it out for that spot as well; he has progressed nicely and a good spring may earn him at least a spot in the bullpen.
Bullpen:
This is probably the teams greatest weakness, led by the overpaid, overweight, oft-injuried and under performing Armando Benitez. This year is the last year of his contract I believe, so the Giants will not hesitate in eating his contract and benching/designating him for assignment should Armando not pitch well in the closer's role again. Look for Brian Wilson to take over the closer spot at the first sign of failure for Benitez. As for the rest of the bullpen, it should be fine due to the ability of Bruce Bochy's track record of mixing and matching with his bullpen's in San Diego. Of course the Giants do not possess a stellar closer like the Padre's do in Trevor Hoffman.
Position Players:
Bonds, Bonds, Bonds and Bonds. This is what will dominate the conversation whenever the Giants are mentioned in the media this year. There are so many interesting storylines involving Bonds that include: home run record chase, "greenies" positive test, selling out teammates, steroids, grand jury indictment, FBI investigation, last season as a Giant, 3000 hits. The Giants offense and success in general will hinge on his health and performance as he is the only legitimate deep threat in the batting order. Reports are that he is looking good health wise; he hit a laser beam homer in one of his first swings of spring training. Dave Roberts, the new centerfielder and leadoff man will have to cover a lot of ground on defense to make up for Bonds lack of range. Randy Winn will hopefully improve his sub-par season last year where he faded down the stretch. First base is open for competition, but I predict Rich Aurilla should win the job. Ray Durham at second is coming off one of his best seasons, but health remains a big question as usual with him. Omar Vizquel is coming off another gold glove season at SS and as long as he can maintain the same On-base percentage as last year the team should be fine. At third base returns Pedro Feliz, another whipping boy of many Giant's fans. I think many fans have too lofty expectations from him, I expect a solid season of 20 HR .260 80-90 RBI and solid defense. Catcher should be a wash from last year as new Free Agent Bengie Molina replaces the just retired Mike Matheny (concussions).
Overall, this season for the Giants will hinge on the same things from the last two seasons. Health, Bonds, and the closer situation. As long as Bonds remains healthy and does not run into any legal troubles he should start 120-130 games and the Giants should win about 82 games. Depending on the division this may make them contenders for the title up to the last few weeks or so and put them in 3rd place. Hopefully with revenue from this year's All-Star game, expiring contracts the Giants can contend for a World Series in 2-3 years or so.
Cliffs:
-Giant's success depends on the Barry's (Zito and Bonds).
-Staring pitching is the team's strong point.
-Bullpen is their weakness (Benitez sucks); hopefully new manager Bochy can fix that.
-Lineup depends on health of the team, specifically Bonds.
-My projected finish for the Giants: 82-80 (3rd NL West)