The new question, how will the Death of OBL effect the Tailban.

[Lemon law]

While my thinking is that the death of OBL will actually strength the Taliban, there is that opposite camp that thinks the Taliban has lost its leader.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/as_pakis...cWtkBGFzc2V0A2FwLzIwMTEwNTE0L2FzX3Bha2lzdGFuB

And as background news, today or yesterday there was a huge bombing that killed some 80 people as a revenge bombing. What is not clear is if the attack was carried out by the Taliban or remnants of Al-Quida.

As the link points out the answers may hinge on continuing Arab monies to keep the Taliban in funding.

But my questions more focuses on why any stated terrorist like the Taliban would ever forge an alliance with Stateless Terrorists like Al-Quida. After all the goals of a state based group like the Taliban is always almost 180 degrees apart from a stateless group like Al-Quida, who wants to stir up maximum terror regardless if it benefits their stated hosts or not. Al-Quida lost most of influence in Iraq when it brought down disaster to its only sponsors, namely the Sunni Muslims in Iraq.

We shall soon get our answers, as the Afghan fighting season is due to begin. Will a dispirted Taliban come to the negotiation table, or will a Taliban free from the corrosive influence become an even greater and more effective threat?

 

[classy]

Muslims are seriously stupid I believe sometimes. They protect these terrorists only to see them kill their own people.

 

[Jaskalas]

Muslims are seriously stupid I believe sometimes. They protect these terrorists only to see them kill their own people.

They are only united in their hatred for us, aside from that their favorite pastime IS killing each other. Combine the two and they're busy dealing with their own problem while not wanting us involved in the first place.

 

[ericlp]

you mean an eye for an eye?

 

[Lemon law]

So far all we have is three replying posters who think dissing Muslims will solve anything.

All I can do without taking any joy, is those Muslims are kicking US butt and if we want to change the trend, we in the US better get smarter not dumber.

 

[wuliheron]

Its the same strategy used for organized crime and gangs. The idea isn't to just take out one leader, but all the leaders. When they eventually get reorganized you go back and do it again. In the meantime they become disorganized and fight each other in the resulting power vacuum. It keeps their mortality rates high and discourages new recruits.

Al Qaeda represents the wild cards in the deck. The independent contractors the Taliban might hire to put pressure on the government to back off. Too many attacks like this one and the civilian population might start demanding solutions the government just can't produce. While the US continues to pound Al Qaeda I wouldn't be surprised if the Pakistani give the Taliban a bit of extra room to maneuverer just to keep them out of this fight.

 

[Lemon law]

Wileheron, please tell us all about it and how well it worked in Vietnam.

Talk about an organized crime racket, well you just described the Afghan Government we support. As for all the drone activity in the Pakistani tribal areas, all it does is make all the people hate both Nato and the Pakistani army.

 

[Nebor]

The fighting season has already begun, and the death of OBL didn't change a thing. He was a figurehead at best. Bombings and attacks across the country targetted at ISAF forces are mounting by the week. One of the kids I used to see outside Camp Phoenix begging for water bottles blew himself up 3 weeks ago, trying to attack an American convoy. He was 8 years old.

The death of OBL changes nothing. We're still occupying a country full of people that hate us. They'll continue to attack us, and destroy all our efforts as long as we stay. We need to abandon Afghanistan entirely.

 

[Londo_Jowo]

We need to abandon Afghanistan entirely.

Agreed!!!

 

[Nebor]

Agreed!!!

But not before I get a chance to go back.

 

[sunzt]

Muslims are seriously stupid I believe sometimes. They protect these terrorists only to see them kill their own people.

only 13% of Afganis support the taliban.

 

[Lemon law]

only 13% of Afganis support the taliban.

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Missing in action is any statistics on how many Afghans support either Nato or the Afghan government.

When they have three turds to choose from, why vote for any given turd?

 

[wuliheron]

Wileheron, please tell us all about it and how well it worked in Vietnam.

Talk about an organized crime racket, well you just described the Afghan Government we support. As for all the drone activity in the Pakistani tribal areas, all it does is make all the people hate both Nato and the Pakistani army.

Vietnam was a whole different ball game with millions of commies and all out warfare. This is more like pest control. Nobody really likes Al Qaeda even if they do like them sticking it to the west. When Al Qaeda can count its members in the millions and starts coming at us with tanks and fighters I'll start to worry. As for the hillbillys caught in the crossfire, they never liked us anyway.

 

[Nebor]

only 13% of Afganis support the taliban.

I don't buy that for a second. The last polling results I saw was around 60% support for reunification with the Taliban.

And even if they don't like the Taliban, they don't like us and they don't like Karzai. So it's time to flip them the bird and peace the fuck out. They can keep all the weapons and ammunition we've given them over the past decade and use them to kill each other for the next 30 years until someone else comes in that thinks they can "fix" Afghanistan. :thumbsup:

 

[sunzt]

I don't buy that for a second. The last polling results I saw was around 60% support for reunification with the Taliban.

And even if they don't like the Taliban, they don't like us and they don't like Karzai. So it's time to flip them the bird and peace the fuck out. They can keep all the weapons and ammunition we've given them over the past decade and use them to kill each other for the next 30 years until someone else comes in that thinks they can "fix" Afghanistan. :thumbsup:

Stat was in latest economist articles about afghanistan and was from UN.; pg 32 near the end.

 

[Nebor]

Stat was in latest economist articles about afghanistan and was from UN.; pg 32 near the end.

I hardly think that article paints a positive picture, and I'm struggling to understand why it's called "glimmers of hope." The author presents counter-points to all of his positive observations... And the 13% is just thrown in there without citation or qualification. Who did they ask? What did they ask them?

 

[werepossum]

They are only united in their hatred for us, aside from that their favorite pastime IS killing each other. Combine the two and they're busy dealing with their own problem while not wanting us involved in the first place.

I don't buy that for a second. The last polling results I saw was around 60% support for reunification with the Taliban.

And even if they don't like the Taliban, they don't like us and they don't like Karzai. So it's time to flip them the bird and peace the fuck out. They can keep all the weapons and ammunition we've given them over the past decade and use them to kill each other for the next 30 years until someone else comes in that thinks they can "fix" Afghanistan. :thumbsup:

What the free non-Muslim world needs to do is to disappear completely from their stone radar screens. Without the Great Satan and his merry band of little Satans on which to focus, the more violent Muslim nations will be free to kill each other until even they get tired of it. Once they get it out of their systems, maybe they can begin to creep into the eighth century and move at least in the direction of progress. Or if not, at least there will be less of them.

 

[Jaskalas]

So far all we have is three replying posters who think dissing Muslims will solve anything.

All I can do without taking any joy, is those Muslims are kicking US butt and if we want to change the trend, we in the US better get smarter not dumber.

Smarter is to GTFO of their land and to let them resume killing each other. Non involvement, for the only involvement I'll accept is killing them all. You don't want that, and I don't want that, so best keep our distance unless we resort to that.

Retaliation if they strike us can simply be that. Short term, in, kill, and out. No nation building, no occupying American force in Muslim countries telling Muslims how to live their lives.

My plan is freedom for Muslims BY Muslims. You shouldn't want it any other way.

 

[BeauJangles]

We shall soon get our answers, as the Afghan fighting season is due to begin. Will a dispirted Taliban come to the negotiation table, or will a Taliban free from the corrosive influence become an even greater and more effective threat?

Soon to begin? The Spring "Offensive" has begun, it's just that between the drone strikes in Pakistan, the death of Bin Laden, and the US military's vicious winter campaign, the pool of ready-to-die recruits is slowly shrinking. The successful bombings the Taliban has carried out have been against non-American targets and have further enraged the Afghan population, who is now decidedly against them.

Those who were once willing to pick up guns and strap on bombs to fight American soldiers are realizing that the Americans aren't as weak as they thought, not as stupid as they thought, and not as cowardly as they thought. The military's relentless pursuit of insurgents, particularly the battles during the winter months which forced them to come out and fight in terribly cold and inhospitable conditions have really kicked the Taliban in their metaphorical balls.

There will be reprisals for Osama's death, but nothing like what has been promised.

 

[woolfe9999]

I hardly think that article paints a positive picture, and I'm struggling to understand why it's called "glimmers of hope." The author presents counter-points to all of his positive observations... And the 13% is just thrown in there without citation or qualification. Who did they ask? What did they ask them?

There are numerous opinion polls available. Example:

http://abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/v...stan-criticisms-us-stay-high/story?id=9511961

Like all broad based opinion polls it's a mixed bag. However, in no poll I've seen is overall support for the Taliban higher than 20% (usually less), and support for the U.S. and, surprisingly, their own central government, is substantially higher.

- wolf

 

[BeauJangles]

There are numerous opinion polls available. Example:

http://abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/v...stan-criticisms-us-stay-high/story?id=9511961

Like all broad based opinion polls it's a mixed bag. However, in no poll I've seen is overall support for the Taliban higher than 20% (usually less), and support for the U.S. and, surprisingly, their own central government, is substantially higher.

- wolf

By taking the fight to the Taliban and these other insurgents, we've effectively turned popular opinion against them. Their tactics of suicide attacks, IEDs, and wild gunman sprees generally do far more damage to civilian populations than they do to the military personnel they're trying to drive out of their country. These continued attacks have really put a wedge between them and everyday Muslims who might not be fond of the United States, but they certainly prefer their military to being blown up while trying to go buy milk or bread.

Undoubtedly, this strategy has been expensive for America, but it has also lead to real gains and tangible progress against these extremist groups.

 

[JEDIYoda]

Muslims are seriously stupid I believe sometimes. They protect these terrorists only to see them kill their own people.

So much for the religion of Peace!!!

 

[Lemon law]

So much for the religion of Peace!!!

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Easy for you to say JediY, but in Israel, during the period between 1900 to 1948. the Jews were the most effective and most frequent users of terrorists tactics. A fact you fail to mention. And that two former terrorists became PM's of Israel. And I refer to Mier and Begin.

The history of terrorism is at least 6000 years old. Islam is only 1200 years old.

 

[dabuddha]

My hope is for a massive suicide by all extremist. But in all seriousness, I dunno.

I think it's time the US pulled out of both areas. We should let the cockroaches kill each other off but what makes me hesitate is the innocent people that get stuck in the middle. What we really need is for the fucking politicians to let the soldiers do their job. But that's outside the scope of this thread

 

[Lemon law]

Soon to begin? The Spring "Offensive" has begun, it's just that between the drone strikes in Pakistan, the death of Bin Laden, and the US military's vicious winter campaign, the pool of ready-to-die recruits is slowly shrinking. The successful bombings the Taliban has carried out have been against non-American targets and have further enraged the Afghan population, who is now decidedly against them.

Those who were once willing to pick up guns and strap on bombs to fight American soldiers are realizing that the Americans aren't as weak as they thought, not as stupid as they thought, and not as cowardly as they thought. The military's relentless pursuit of insurgents, particularly the battles during the winter months which forced them to come out and fight in terribly cold and inhospitable conditions have really kicked the Taliban in their metaphorical balls.

There will be reprisals for Osama's death, but nothing like what has been promised.

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Actually BeauJangles, I hope you are right, but the criteria that you cite just shows you have little understanding of terrorism tactics. Its not that the terrorist is too cowardly to take on the US army directly, its a matter that the smart terrorists attack only at points weakly defended. And this has shown true for the recent history of the Afghan war.

Nato can launch an offensive in any Taliban controlled point, go in with guns blazing , shoot the place up while dislocated civilians in lots greater than 100,000. And then declare the location Taliban free. Then Nato goes somewhere else to rinse and repeat. And as Nato packs off from place A to place B, the Taliban is right at their heels, setting back up their shadow government and control of place A.

If Nato ever want to consolidate any gains and win the war against the Taliban, they need at least 100,000 more troops and the commitment of development resources. Even if the Afghan people may want Nato to win, they also realize they get perpetual anarchy because Nato will never commit enough resources to defeat the Taliban. As the Guerrilla war opponent, the Taliban does not have to defeat Nato, they only have to outlast Nato. Meanwhile the corrupt government of Karzai and US drone use, keep the Taliban flush with new recruits. With the US and Nato pullout scheduled in 2014, my best guess is the Taliban will stay the course for at least 3 years more. If anything else, other than some Arab raised Taliban funding, losing OBL is an asset to the Taliban.

But a Taliban victory could come sooner, if Pakistan tells Nato they can no longer use Pakistani roads as a supply line.