The Missing Story of 2016 Election.

[theeedude]

From "GOP lifer" Chris Ladd in Houston Chronicle:
http://blog.chron.com/goplifer/2014/11/the-missing-story-of-the-2014-election/

(One thing I am noticing in his map is that it's not unlikely that if Democrats wil VA and not OH, the election will be 270 to 270 and be decided in the House)
In any case, his argument to fellow Republicans is that they aren't making inroads where it counts, and Democrats have built a "Blue Wall" in high population, high electoral vote states, so that they go into presidential election needing to pick up one or two state, whereas Republicans need to sweep the field.

The biggest Republican victory in decades did not move the map. The Republican party’s geographic and demographic isolation from the rest of American actually got worse.

A few other items of interest from the 2014 election results:

- Republican Senate candidates lost every single race behind the Blue Wall. Every one.

- Behind the Blue Wall there were some new Republican Governors, but their success was very specific and did not translate down the ballot. None of these candidates ran on social issues, Obama, or opposition the ACA. Rauner stands out as a particular bright spot in Illinois, but Democrats in Illinois retained their supermajority in the State Assembly, similar to other northern states, without losing a single seat.

- Republicans in 2014 were the most popular girl at a party no one attended. Voter turnout was awful.

- Democrats have consolidated their power behind the sections of the country that generate the overwhelming bulk of America’s wealth outside the energy industry. That’s only ironic if you buy into far-right propaganda, but it’s interesting none the less.

- Vote suppression is working remarkably well, but that won’t last. Eventually Democrats will help people get the documentation they need to meet the ridiculous and confusing new requirements. The whole “voter integrity” sham may have given Republicans a one or maybe two-election boost in low-turnout races. Meanwhile we kissed off minority votes for the foreseeable future.

- Across the country, every major Democratic ballot initiative was successful, including every minimum wage increase, even in the red states.

- Every personhood amendment failed.

So there is an extremely high chance the 2016 Democrat Primary will pick the next President of the United States. We need to pick the right person to push our ideas, not just someone who will play well in so-called "middle America."

- In Congress, there are no more white Democrats from the South. The long flight of the Dixiecrats has concluded.

The retrograde South finally has no leverage over the Democrats, which is a good thing for the party long term.

 

[Smoblikat]

Good thing the republicans arent getting many votes, too bad the democrats are.

 

[cabri]

the BLUE wall is susceptible to crumbling if the Democrats to not get their house in order.
2014 proved such.

 

[theeedude]

the BLUE wall is susceptible to crumbling if the Democrats to not get their house in order.
2014 proved such.

The author's point is that they haven't been able to pierce the Blue Wall in 2014 either, despite low midterm year turnout. They just got lucky most of the seats Democrats were defending were in Red states.
It's far more likely that Dems will win some or all of VA, CO, FL, and OH in a presidential election year than GOP picks up any of the Blue Wall States.

 

[werepossum]

Nice to see that the Houston Chronicle has its own Andrew Sullivan.

 

[doubledeluxe]

Voter turnout in last week's midterm elections was terrible. How terrible? Just 36.3 percent of eligible voters cast votes — the worst turnout in 72 years, the New York Times reports. Only the 1942 election (33.9 percent) had a lower rate of voter turnout.

Damn!

 

[feralkid]

Good thing the republicans arent getting many votes, too bad the democrats are.

News flash: Red States Voted Red.

 

[cubby1223]

The Presidential election isn't so much about red state & blue state blocks, it's more about which candidate is more charismatic. Romney was a bore. McCain was a bore. Kerry was a bore. Gore was a bore. Dole was a bore. Get the pattern?

When the GOP has a charismatic candidate, what was it, every state except Minnesota voted Republican?

 

[Londo_Jowo]

I guess not voting has consequences as well

Big question will it happen again in 2016

 

[Bitek]

Pretty interesting read.

I've had my own doubts whether calling 2014 a wave election is an accurate assessment of the results. If anything, I'd call it the anti wave from 2008. Many of the dems who lost were ones that rode coattails from Obama in places dems weren't supposed to win.

What was remarkable or unpredictable about this year? The dems who were supposed to lose lost in red states.

Rs won in purple CO, but they didn't carry the gov race. All the leftist ballot initiatives won, the right ones lost.

I'll be impressed by a wave when one party actually wins big in another's territory.

 

[Sonikku]

If only there was a simpler way of electing a leader.

 

[trenchfoot]

Pretty interesting read.

I've had my own doubts whether calling 2014 a wave election is an accurate assessment of the results. If anything, I'd call it the anti wave from 2008. Many of the dems who lost were ones that rode coattails from Obama in places dems weren't supposed to win.

What was remarkable or unpredictable about this year? The dems who were supposed to lose lost in red states.

Rs won in purple CO, but they didn't carry the gov race. All the leftist ballot initiatives won, the right ones lost.

I'll be impressed by a wave when one party actually wins big in another's territory.

As far as the Repubs are concerned, when you're dying of thirst, a drop of water looks like an overwhelming mandate in the form of a pitcher full of ice cold lemonade.