The gulf stream, cooling and you.

[bradly1101]

We have had some extreme cold lately in the eastern U.S. and Canada.

I've read about concerns over a weakening gulf stream for a while now and commented on it here, but I thought it deserved its own thread.

It is an ironic side-effect of warming caused when salinity levels fall because of melting ice. The resulting weaker jet stream can't keep the northeast warm enough to counteract these 'polar vortexes' and keep them at higher latitudes. It's places like Boston that sees these effects worse, although I notice also that the rivers around New York are almost iced over.

I've seen predictions of these wild winters. I wonder if it's because of the weakening gulf stream.

Dr Bill Turrell, from the Fisheries Research Service in Aberdeen, has been measuring the salt-content of the Gulf Stream current flowing north of Scotland.

If salinity is dropping, it is a sign that the driving force behind the Gulf Stream is weakening.

Global warming threatens the Gulf Stream because it is predicted to produce more fresh water, which would dilute the salty waters of the current. This in turn would stop it sinking, and if this happened the heat it carries would be cut off.
Dr Turrell's measurements show that the Gulf Stream's salinity is indeed dropping.

"It's the most fundamental change I've observed in my career," he tells the programme. "We were really worried when we saw these results. We'd never seen a change like this before.

"These changes are fundamental; they are substantial; They are going to impact our climate and the climate our children have to live in."

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-201951/Global-warming-cause-big-chill.html

Europe is not unaffected:

http://notrickszone.com/2013/10/23/...-ill-for-europes-winter/#sthash.pqANvs16.dpbs

 

[Markbnj]

Meteorology is a complex subject about which I know damn little, but yeah in general I think people believe "global warming" means "everywhere is warmer," when what it often means is there are more bubbles of extreme temperature differentials moving around in the atmosphere. So here in NJ, for example, we've had fronts come through this year where we literally went from 5F to 40F overnight, with rain and sleet, and then back down to single digits the day after. I think in past years those differentials weren't as great, and so we'd be at 20F on a normal February day and a warm front would mean 30F and snow.

 

[bradly1101]

Meteorology is a complex subject about which I know damn little, but yeah in general I think people believe "global warming" means "everywhere is warmer," when what it often means is there are more bubbles of extreme temperature differentials moving around in the atmosphere. So here in NJ, for example, we've had fronts come through this year where we literally went from 5F to 40F overnight, with rain and sleet, and then back down to single digits the day after. I think in past years those differentials weren't as great, and so we'd be at 20F on a normal February day and a warm front would mean 30F and snow.

If this science is true, you were influenced by a stronger gulf stream in the milder years.

 

[bradley]

A good scientific method doesn't start with a theory or agenda to be proven, and then hide or shave away the *bad* data when disproved.

Quite frankly, our fallible science still cannot accurately predict long-term weather, much less cure the likely basic interactions in a balding pate. Our 100 years of data is a feeble attempt at an *estimated* 4.5 billion years of earth's existence.

Although, I do find this data overall way more interesting....

'Record grooves' on ocean floor document Earth’s ice ages
http://news.sciencemag.org/earth/2015/02/record-grooves-ocean-floor-document-earth-s-ice-ages

 

[Jeff7]

A good scientific method doesn't start with a theory or agenda to be proven, and then hide or shave away the *bad* data when disproved.

Quite frankly, our fallible science still cannot accurately predict long-term weather, much less cure the likely basic interactions in a balding pate. Our 100 years of data is a feeble attempt at an *estimated* 4.5 billion years of earth's existence.

Although, I do find this data overall way more interesting....

'Record grooves' on ocean floor document Earth’s ice ages
http://news.sciencemag.org/earth/2015/02/record-grooves-ocean-floor-document-earth-s-ice-ages

We've got to do what we always can do: The best we can with the available data.

Many feel it's better to say "Let's do nothing until we know 100% about everything. Then we'll make up our minds."

Problem is, that day is probably a few billion years away, and it's not likely that it'll be humans who figure it all out.

 

[MongGrel]

Yeah, I think that salinity drop is going to be a problem.

Has been awhile now.

 

[destrekor]

I've been hoping I wouldn't be alive when the shit hits the fan. I've also been hoping we could figure something out to stave off the issue, but I feel it's becoming more and more likely that neither of those will be true.

There are too many theories as to what exactly will happen, and with so many variables feeding into global climate patterns, it's a tough guess. A weakened or stopped Gulf Stream could throw Europe into a "little ice age" and also severely disrupt climate patterns all over the world. That could also help alleviate the trend of global warming, stop it altogether, or simply be one benchmark along the road to the ultimate tipping point.

Overall the average temperature has increased when accounting for the entire surface of the planet, if only barely in the scheme of things. But that's enough to change climate patterns all over, and if that goes too far, it could trigger run-away effects.

 

[Murloc]

I guess Iceland would freeze over and everybody would move to Ireland and find the same climate.
Except no geothermal energy.