The end of Blu-Ray/HD-DVD before it's begun?

[Lonyo]

Story

Maxell and InPhase are bringing a revolutionary technology to market - holographic media. With storage capacities achieving 1.6 TeraBytes per disk and data rates as high as 120 MBPs, holographic technology is a true breakthrough in optical media. These features, along with a long archival life, make holographic media a compelling choice for storage and archival requirements.

Holographic data storage is superior to existing disc and hard drive technologies, and is also competitive against tape technologies in capacities and transfer rate. In addition, it offers a 50+ year media archive life and random data access. Finally, the media is expected to have the lowest cost per gigabyte of any commercial quality removable storage.

"Holographic media makes it possible for millions of pages of information and high definition images to be held on one small, relatively inexpensive disc," said Steven Pofcher, senior marketing manager at Maxell. "Imagine having a person's entire medical history, complete with MRI images, or storing a broadcast network's entire HD Library on a single disc. These are both possible with holographic technology, which has such large capacity that approximately a half million 300-page books can be stored on a single disc."

Holographic recording technology utilizes intersecting signal and reference laser beams to store data in a number of 3D hologram images capable of saving hundreds of data pages in a single location. One 5 1/4 inch-diameter optical disc can store up to 150 million pages - more than 63 times the capacity of DVD. Also, with holographic recording, a multiple of form factors, such as discs, cards, etc., and laser wavelengths (red, green, and blue) can be used.

"Combining high storage densities and fast transfer rates with durable, reliable, low cost media, Holographic technology is poised to become a compelling choice for next-generation storage and content distribution needs," said Liz Murphy, vice president of marketing for InPhase Technologies. "Unlike other technologies that record one data bit at a time, holography allows a million bits of data to be written and read in parallel with a single flash of light. This enables transfer rates significantly higher than current optical storage devices."

The first generation of holographic media is scheduled for release in September 2006.

 

[MobiusPizza]

Yeah I know that. but the initial products are for specific server uses
General consumer product won't come out till 2008

They are called HVD Holographic Versatile Discs by the way

 

[Fullmetal Chocobo]

Nice... Very nice. So I figure by Dec 07, they will be reasonably cheap enough to be practical for data backup.

 

[bleeb]

I'll wait until the next generation technology comes out AFTER HVD. =)

 

[thecoolnessrune]

They say lowest cost per gigabyte but still put it into perspective:

CDR: about $ .28 per gigabyte or $ .20 per disc

DVDR: about $ .11 per gigabyte or $ .50 per disc

DVDR-DL: about $ .16 per gigabyte or $ 1.50 per disc

HVD: could be even $ .05 per gigabyte but that would still be $80 a disc. While I still love the storage probability. I couldn't afford even one disc lol.

 

[FishTankX]

Uh, Lonyo? There's a reason why holoraphic media will NEVER replace optical disc media.

Holographic media cannot be stamped, and thus cannot be mass produced for movie purposes.

Dun dun dun.

MAYBE for computer use holograhpic archival media will replace DVD *if* it is cost effective. But at this point there isn't even any confirmation that it will be rewritable.

If it does become rewritable though, the harddisk is dead. Who would want to buy a 500GB harddrive that can read at 50MB/s if they can buy a holographic one that can read at 120MB/s?

 

[batmanuel]

Originally posted by: FishTankX
Uh, Lonyo? There's a reason why holoraphic media will NEVER replace optical disc media.

Holographic media cannot be stamped, and thus cannot be mass produced for movie purposes.

Dun dun dun.

MAYBE for computer use holograhpic archival media will replace DVD *if* it is cost effective. But at this point there isn't even any confirmation that it will be rewritable.

If it does become rewritable though, the harddisk is dead. Who would want to buy a 500GB harddrive that can read at 50MB/s if they can buy a holographic one that can read at 120MB/s?

Yeah, but the Magic Eight Ball points heavily towards the impending death of stamped media as the primary distribution method for digital content within a decade. It's been slow to start, but lately my cable company has been really ramping up the speeds since they have Verizon rolling out FISO, so we should relatively soon see an increase in boradband speeds to the point where even HD content can be moved around the pipes fairly easily. Also, Windows Vista coming down the pike with HDCP support for HD video will hopefully make the content creators feel a lot more secure about releasing good quality HD content via download.

It is possible that the annoying format war between Blu-Ray and HD-DVD will make a lot of people consider downloadable content as a viable means of getting HDTV if a reasonable means of gettng that content quickly to the consumer becomes available soon (perhaps BitTorrent-assisted Akamai networks?). especially if the physical pressed media become so laden with annoying DRM schemes and rootkits that people just give up on buying discs because the flexibilty that used to come with physically owning a disc just isn't there anymore. I can seriously see Blu-Ray and HD DVD floundering in the market for a long time as a niche product for hard core video-philes (like the SACDs and DVD-Audio disks have floundered in the audio market) while the rest of us just get a sub-$100 HDMI-equipped DVD player that will upconvert all of our extensive collections old SD DVDs that we just don't feel like replacing because they look good enough for our needs at the moment even though they are not as good looking as the HD-format movies. If they linger along in this niche for the next five years or so, I really could see online distribution taking off (and holographic media being used as a way to securely back up the huge amount of data HD content would create).

In fact, I'm just waiting until the iTunes music store sales slack off just enough to prompt Apple to cut some deals with the music lablels (who at that time will likely be reeling from CD sales that continue to soften) to allow them to start releasing HD audio via the iTMS using a new codec that just so happens to be supported by a brand new HD-audio capable iPod). If this happens, it could virtually overnight eastblish the supremacy of online distribution as the main method of getting audio content to the consumer and get thee ball rolling on video distribution as well.

 

[PrayForDeath]

Interesting read (article and thread 😉)

 

[BFG10K]

This looks very interesting.

 

[mwmorph]

Originally posted by: thecoolnessrune
They say lowest cost per gigabyte but still put it into perspective:

CDR: about $ .28 per gigabyte or $ .20 per disc

DVDR: about $ .11 per gigabyte or $ .50 per disc

DVDR-DL: about $ .16 per gigabyte or $ 1.50 per disc

HVD: could be even $ .05 per gigabyte but that would still be $80 a disc. While I still love the storage probability. I couldn't afford even one disc lol.

lol; imagine if you scratched that $80 disc...

 

[thecoolnessrune]

Originally posted by: batmanuel

Originally posted by: FishTankX
Uh, Lonyo? There's a reason why holoraphic media will NEVER replace optical disc media.

Holographic media cannot be stamped, and thus cannot be mass produced for movie purposes.

Dun dun dun.

MAYBE for computer use holograhpic archival media will replace DVD *if* it is cost effective. But at this point there isn't even any confirmation that it will be rewritable.

If it does become rewritable though, the harddisk is dead. Who would want to buy a 500GB harddrive that can read at 50MB/s if they can buy a holographic one that can read at 120MB/s?

Yeah, but the Magic Eight Ball points heavily towards the impending death of stamped media as the primary distribution method for digital content within a decade. It's been slow to start, but lately my cable company has been really ramping up the speeds since they have Verizon rolling out FISO, so we should relatively soon see an increase in boradband speeds to the point where even HD content can be moved around the pipes fairly easily. Also, Windows Vista coming down the pike with HDCP support for HD video will hopefully make the content creators feel a lot more secure about releasing good quality HD content via download.

It is possible that the annoying format war between Blu-Ray and HD-DVD will make a lot of people consider downloadable content as a viable means of getting HDTV if a reasonable means of gettng that content quickly to the consumer becomes available soon (perhaps BitTorrent-assisted Akamai networks?). especially if the physical pressed media become so laden with annoying DRM schemes and rootkits that people just give up on buying discs because the flexibilty that used to come with physically owning a disc just isn't there anymore. I can seriously see Blu-Ray and HD DVD floundering in the market for a long time as a niche product for hard core video-philes (like the SACDs and DVD-Audio disks have floundered in the audio market) while the rest of us just get a sub-$100 HDMI-equipped DVD player that will upconvert all of our extensive collections old SD DVDs that we just don't feel like replacing because they look good enough for our needs at the moment even though they are not as good looking as the HD-format movies. If they linger along in this niche for the next five years or so, I really could see online distribution taking off (and holographic media being used as a way to securely back up the huge amount of data HD content would create).

In fact, I'm just waiting until the iTunes music store sales slack off just enough to prompt Apple to cut some deals with the music lablels (who at that time will likely be reeling from CD sales that continue to soften) to allow them to start releasing HD audio via the iTMS using a new codec that just so happens to be supported by a brand new HD-audio capable iPod). If this happens, it could virtually overnight eastblish the supremacy of online distribution as the main method of getting audio content to the consumer and get thee ball rolling on video distribution as well.

Yeah, but I'll be ticked off if I start paying $30 a movie, can only copy it once, can only play it on HDCP systems (no Linux). And have to pay another $30 every couple of months to return the liscence. But if all that occurs. It will simply improve the open-source community. And of course anything the public does not like, we don't have to do. If they pull some sh*t like that, I'm not gonna buy nothing from them until they crippled.

 

[n7]

:Q

 

[SnoMunke]

BD/HDDVD are the last physical storage solutions for movies/video... after that everything will be streamed across the 'net...

 

[0roo0roo]

Originally posted by: SnoMunke
BD/HDDVD are the last physical storage solutions for movies/video... after that everything will be streamed across the 'net...

sure...

they told us that we'd be streaming our o/s and applications over the net a while back😉 harddrives? naw!!! internet pc!

 

[ShadowBlade]

possible prices per disc:
$0.04/GB - $64
$0.03/GB - $48
$0.02/GB - $32
$0.01/GB - $16
$0.005/GB - $8
$0.0025/GB - $4
$0.00125/GB - $2
$0.000125/GB - $0.20 <- would be awesome

 

[darknodin]

Originally posted by: ShadowBlade
possible prices per disc:

$0.000125/GB - $0.20 <- would be awesome

uhm... if that happens, I'll be buying googol amounts of storage (just for kicks)

 

[Snooper]

Originally posted by: darknodin
uhm... if that happens, I'll be buying googol amounts of storage (just for kicks)

You must be VERY rich. Even at that low price, a google (10^100 if my memory is working) would STILL be 1.25^85 bucks. Let's see. If you got paid the Gross Domestic Product of the USA (GDP) every year (10.7557 Trillion dollars in 2004), it would STILL take you about 1.16^85 years to pay for it. And that is about 8.3^61 TIMES longer than the Universe has existed (according to the evolutionists). 😉

 

[Spike]

Originally posted by: Snooper

Originally posted by: darknodin
uhm... if that happens, I'll be buying googol amounts of storage (just for kicks)

You must be VERY rich. Even at that low price, a google (10^100 if my memory is working) would STILL be 1.25^85 bucks. Let's see. If you got paid the Gross Domestic Product of the USA (GDP) every year (10.7557 Trillion dollars in 2004), it would STILL take you about 1.16^85 years to pay for it. And that is about 8.3^61 TIMES longer than the Universe has existed (according to the evolutionists). 😉

Whoa, too much math there, I can't take it during my lunch break!.

I'm not so sure about this coming to the market anytime soon. They have been working on holographic hdd's since the 60's and they still have not perfected it so I am skeptical.

-spike

 

[morrisbj]

Originally posted by: Snooper

Originally posted by: darknodin
uhm... if that happens, I'll be buying googol amounts of storage (just for kicks)

You must be VERY rich. Even at that low price, a google (10^100 if my memory is working) would STILL be 1.25^85 bucks. Let's see. If you got paid the Gross Domestic Product of the USA (GDP) every year (10.7557 Trillion dollars in 2004), it would STILL take you about 1.16^85 years to pay for it. And that is about 8.3^61 TIMES longer than the Universe has existed (according to the evolutionists). 😉

Ummmm, he was responding to the $0.20 per disk. Isn't this math assuming $1.25 per disk? Even at that though, it would still be really friggin expensive.

 

[50]

Originally posted by: thecoolnessrune
They say lowest cost per gigabyte but still put it into perspective:

CDR: about $ .28 per gigabyte or $ .20 per disc

DVDR: about $ .11 per gigabyte or $ .50 per disc

DVDR-DL: about $ .16 per gigabyte or $ 1.50 per disc

HVD: could be even $ .05 per gigabyte but that would still be $80 a disc. While I still love the storage probability. I couldn't afford even one disc lol.

I am sure they will produce lower gigabyte discs than 1.6tb. I mean who needs a 1.6 tb movie? If they produced a 500gb disc it would only be 25 dollars. Even a 100gb disc is plenty for most projects at the moment.

 

[Matthias99]

Originally posted by: 50
I am sure they will produce lower gigabyte discs than 1.6tb. I mean who needs a 1.6 tb movie? If they produced a 500gb disc it would only be 25 dollars. Even a 100gb disc is plenty for most projects at the moment.

Depends if it's cost-effective to make them that small. I mean, by your logic, we should have $.05 DVDs that hold only 1GB, and $10 hard drives that hold only 20GB. 😛

A lot of companies have tried to bring holographic storage to the market in some form; none have succeeded (yet). Basically, I'll believe it when it's sitting on a store shelf and I can buy one. 😛

 

[phaxmohdem]

Originally posted by: Matthias99

Originally posted by: 50
I am sure they will produce lower gigabyte discs than 1.6tb. I mean who needs a 1.6 tb movie? If they produced a 500gb disc it would only be 25 dollars. Even a 100gb disc is plenty for most projects at the moment.

Depends if it's cost-effective to make them that small. I mean, by your logic, we should have $.05 DVDs that hold only 1GB, and $10 hard drives that hold only 20GB. 😛

A lot of companies have tried to bring holographic storage to the market in some form; none have succeeded (yet). Basically, I'll believe it when it's sitting on a store shelf and I can buy one. 😛

Who really needs their 2.7GHz uber OC'd Dual Core Opteron to look at their pr0n? For most people (especially on this site) its not so much about practicality as keeping up with the latest and greatest, or keeping up with the Jones's as they say.

Though 1.6TB would make for one helluva pr0n stash 😉

 

[Auric]

Media schmedia. The drives are forecast to be priced around $15000-20000 with the later consumer models being a mere $3000.

 

[50]

Originally posted by: Matthias99

Originally posted by: 50
I am sure they will produce lower gigabyte discs than 1.6tb. I mean who needs a 1.6 tb movie? If they produced a 500gb disc it would only be 25 dollars. Even a 100gb disc is plenty for most projects at the moment.

Depends if it's cost-effective to make them that small. I mean, by your logic, we should have $.05 DVDs that hold only 1GB, and $10 hard drives that hold only 20GB. 😛

A lot of companies have tried to bring holographic storage to the market in some form; none have succeeded (yet). Basically, I'll believe it when it's sitting on a store shelf and I can buy one. 😛

Well it's more of a topic of neccesity rather than price. I do not need a $.05 dvd because I can get a .7gb CD for the same price or lower. Nowadays 20 GB hard drives are becoming extinct because MORE space is neccesary even if it were at a lower price. If we need 1.6tb discs one year from now then this will be a very practical product. Otherwise, I think they should cater to the needs of consumers.

 

[Lonyo]

Originally posted by: Auric
Media schmedia. The drives are forecast to be priced around $15000-20000 with the later consumer models being a mere $3000.

Meh.
DVD players were over $1000 back in 1997 when they were introduced. Link
Bluray? A mere $2150 in Japan as of April 2005.Link

So you tell me if $3000 is going to put it out of reach of the general public realistically, over time?

Originally posted by: 50

Originally posted by: Matthias99

Originally posted by: 50
I am sure they will produce lower gigabyte discs than 1.6tb. I mean who needs a 1.6 tb movie? If they produced a 500gb disc it would only be 25 dollars. Even a 100gb disc is plenty for most projects at the moment.

Depends if it's cost-effective to make them that small. I mean, by your logic, we should have $.05 DVDs that hold only 1GB, and $10 hard drives that hold only 20GB. 😛

A lot of companies have tried to bring holographic storage to the market in some form; none have succeeded (yet). Basically, I'll believe it when it's sitting on a store shelf and I can buy one. 😛

Well it's more of a topic of neccesity rather than price. I do not need a $.05 dvd because I can get a .7gb CD for the same price or lower. Nowadays 20 GB hard drives are becoming extinct because MORE space is neccesary even if it were at a lower price. If we need 1.6tb discs one year from now then this will be a very practical product. Otherwise, I think they should cater to the needs of consumers.

There is also a minimum cost for HDD's I believe, because as cheap and dense as you can make the platters, you still have material costs which you cannot get down at all.
20GB HDD's are around the same price as 30, 40, 60 and now even 80GB drives.