The economy will be fine and dandy! || The economy will go down in flames!

[tfcmasta97]

With all of the news reports judging everything about the economy by what happens in the 24 hours leading up to it, can anyone point me to the numbers for the US?

Particularly, I'm looking for current information and trends in:

Capital [income levels/growth/loss]
Investment [Savings rates/%'s/How much people have lost during this financial meltdown/rates of r&d]
GDP figures [Growth/Loss of the economy as a whole and hopefully breakdowns into more specific industries]
Debt [Costs of Iraq and Afghanistan wars, how much debt the US is in, how much of the debt is owed to the rest of the world/China]
Employment [gains/losses by sectors, education levels, maybe offshore employment numbers]

I know I have read plenty of these articles scattered throughout the forums, I have seen many of them, some more credible than others, but I am hoping to start a more analytical thread that doesn't turn into a flame-war by 'partisan hacks'.

 

[retrospooty]

Originally posted by: tfcmasta97
I am hoping to start a more analytical thread that doesn't turn into a flame-war by 'partisan hacks'.

and you posted it here in P&N ? LOL

The economy is not as strong as we though it was - also the economy is stronger than we thought it was. This above all else be true.

 

[Jaskalas]

Housing prices started this mess, wait for them to recover before you celebrate.

 

[First]

Obvious place to start for GDP, unemployment, and consumer spending statistics is the BLS: http://www.bls.gov/lpc/, http://www.bls.gov/cps/, http://www.bls.gov/cex/

Yahoo finance is a good place to start for investment stats, particularly their key statistics and analyst opinion sections: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=BAC, http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ao?s=BAC. (I used BAC as a random example, and they're probably a great long-term buy).

Bottom line; nationally unemployment is over 8% (highest since 81 recession) and GDP recently increased in Q3 marginally (1% or something), decreased nearly 4% in Q4, and this quarter will probably be worse, maybe even 6%. Hopefully no worse than Q4 but that may be a pipe dream.

That should get you started.

 

[Moonbeam]

Originally posted by: tfcmasta97
With all of the news reports judging everything about the economy by what happens in the 24 hours leading up to it, can anyone point me to the numbers for the US?

Particularly, I'm looking for current information and trends in:

Capital [income levels/growth/loss]
Investment [Savings rates/%'s/How much people have lost during this financial meltdown/rates of r&d]
GDP figures [Growth/Loss of the economy as a whole and hopefully breakdowns into more specific industries]
Debt [Costs of Iraq and Afghanistan wars, how much debt the US is in, how much of the debt is owed to the rest of the world/China]
Employment [gains/losses by sectors, education levels, maybe offshore employment numbers]

I know I have read plenty of these articles scattered throughout the forums, I have seen many of them, some more credible than others, but I am hoping to start a more analytical thread that doesn't turn into a flame-war by 'partisan hacks'.

You have your interests and I have mine. I'm interested in your motives. What do you feel will accrue to you with a solid grasp of the numbers and why do you post here with a hope to escape partisan hackery? I have some doubts about your ability to clearly process information. If you give a bear a box of financial data he will smell it and reach God only knows what conclusions.

 

[piasabird]

The problems is this type of data is usually a year old. You might find some Quarterly results for Unemployment, housing, etc.

I found this site in under a minute.

http://usinfo.org/enus/economy...kforce/production.html

Don't know if I would totally trust Govt Data.

 

[tfcmasta97]

Originally posted by: Moonbeam

Originally posted by: tfcmasta97
With all of the news reports judging everything about the economy by what happens in the 24 hours leading up to it, can anyone point me to the numbers for the US?

Particularly, I'm looking for current information and trends in:

Capital [income levels/growth/loss]
Investment [Savings rates/%'s/How much people have lost during this financial meltdown/rates of r&d]
GDP figures [Growth/Loss of the economy as a whole and hopefully breakdowns into more specific industries]
Debt [Costs of Iraq and Afghanistan wars, how much debt the US is in, how much of the debt is owed to the rest of the world/China]
Employment [gains/losses by sectors, education levels, maybe offshore employment numbers]

I know I have read plenty of these articles scattered throughout the forums, I have seen many of them, some more credible than others, but I am hoping to start a more analytical thread that doesn't turn into a flame-war by 'partisan hacks'.

You have your interests and I have mine. I'm interested in your motives. What do you feel will accrue to you with a solid grasp of the numbers and why do you post here with a hope to escape partisan hackery? I have some doubts about your ability to clearly process information. If you give a bear a box of financial data he will smell it and reach God only knows what conclusions.

Im a canadian student in my final year of an undergrad economics program, hoping to get a better grasp on what is happening within the economy that is so heavily linked to ours.

I am trying to write a paper that is discussing the 'health' of the US economy, where this outside research makes up maybe 10% of my paper as a short discussion, and is more personal interest than anything. Im also interested in how the immediate future will be shaping up. I hope to always be managing my own money too in the future, but that is likely a few years away since im going to be unemployed with debts to pay soon enough.

 

[miketheidiot]

http://research.stlouisfed.org/

should have all the data series you are interested in.

 

[cubeless]

it's pretty obvious that 'the numbers' don't mean anything... since all the numbers that are produced are fabrications to suit someone's agenda (to be adjusted later if necessary)...

the world runs on the emotional response of the masses...

 

[miketheidiot]

Originally posted by: cubeless
it's pretty obvious that 'the numbers' don't mean anything... since all the numbers that are produced are fabrications to suit someone's agenda (to be adjusted later if necessary)...

tinfoil hat thread is ->>>> that way

 

[cubeless]

Originally posted by: miketheidiot

Originally posted by: cubeless
it's pretty obvious that 'the numbers' don't mean anything... since all the numbers that are produced are fabrications to suit someone's agenda (to be adjusted later if necessary)...

tinfoil hat thread is ->>>> that way

truly an inspired retort...

but how do you trust any of the numbers that come out on the deficit, corp "earnings", oil stockpiles, etc... when congress and businesses do so many things "off the balance sheet" and cannot (or will not) put true values on assets and liabilities, and when stockpiles are millions of barrels higher/lower than they thought (darn, someone forgot to check in that closet and i forgot i'd stuck a couple million barrels in there to get them out of the hallway!)...

and i don't think that housing started/caused this problem, we've had housing ups and downs before... what we didn't have before was 30x leveraged, pyramid scheme selling of default swaps, i won't tell that your bonds are shit if you keep letting me rate/sell them financial wizardry...

makes me long for the simple days of the s&l implosion - when you didn't need an advanced degree to understand the crime...

 

[heyheybooboo]

Bureau of Economic Analysis

Check out the right-hand column for all the 'drill-down' detail you could ever want ...

 

[gallivanter]

Also check out The Fed's Stat page.

It is current, and particularly good for analyzing flows and supply.