The economic effects of the Bush presidency

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PokerGuy

Lifer
Jul 2, 2005
13,650
201
101
Originally posted by: ayabe
Originally posted by: PokerGuy
Originally posted by: Phokus
<Stephen Colbert>: Look at all these eggheads with their 'facts' and their 'studies'. Guys like me and Bush? We don't think with our brains, we think with our GUT. And my GUT says Bush is the most successful president in American history. Now i know you liberals are going to say, 'well look at reality, all these studies show the economy did poorly under Bush.' That's the problem with you liberals, we all know reality has a well known liberal bias and can't be trusted.

Apparently, you are also too stupid to understand that there might be a wee bit more to what makes "the economy do poorly" during one administration or another than just which party the president belonged to.

Right it takes tax cuts, deficit spending, and loosening regulations which lead to abuse.

2/3 of those are Bush legacies, I'll leave the last to Clinton.

Um, you do realize that the president does not control spending, right? That would be congress. And the president does not cut taxes, that would also be congress. Also, Bush inherited an economy about to dive into recession, and 9/11. Those are not excuses for his performance, those are simple examples of how you can't just take an isolated factor (like who the president is) and draw meaningful conclusions.

Like it or not Republicans have been championing these very things which have brought us to the brink of ruin. Maybe they should change their platform, their ideas DO NOT WORK.

We've lost nearly a decade of economic growth, doesn't that bother you?

Again, you're drawing conclusions (the ideas don't work!) without having evidence to support the claim. There are too many other factors in play to determine based on aggregate numbers that some general idea didn't work.

Even worse, those very ideas that you say brought us to the brink (deficit spending), are now being applied at an even more extreme level. It's fine now though, because it's being done by democrats right?

 

Engineer

Elite Member
Oct 9, 1999
39,230
701
126
Originally posted by: PokerGuy

Um, you do realize that the president does not control spending, right? That would be congress. And the president does not cut taxes, that would also be congress. Also, Bush inherited an economy about to dive into recession, and 9/11. Those are not excuses for his performance, those are simple examples of how you can't just take an isolated factor (like who the president is) and draw meaningful conclusions.

Based on that, Obama has nothing to worry about because he inherited the most shitty economy in nearly 100 years and can blame the rest on the Congress! :D
 

PokerGuy

Lifer
Jul 2, 2005
13,650
201
101
Originally posted by: Engineer
Originally posted by: PokerGuy

Um, you do realize that the president does not control spending, right? That would be congress. And the president does not cut taxes, that would also be congress. Also, Bush inherited an economy about to dive into recession, and 9/11. Those are not excuses for his performance, those are simple examples of how you can't just take an isolated factor (like who the president is) and draw meaningful conclusions.

Based on that, Obama has nothing to worry about because he inherited the most shitty economy in nearly 100 years and can blame the rest on the Congress! :D

Correct. His policies might be terrible and he'd have to account for those, pointing the finger at one person (the president or anyone else) and blaming the entire economy on them is stupid.
 

PJABBER

Diamond Member
Feb 8, 2001
4,822
0
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Coffee break time! Hmm. I think I am going with the French Roast. Sort of in the mood to keep it dark. (Does that make me racist? :laugh:) Lots of good stuff happening today. I can take a moment to throw a tidbit or two your way, though.

If one lives in a closed world, bounded by narrow focus and private agendas fostered by childhood trauma, one comes up with world views very similar to those being put out by Craig234 et al.

To he and his ilk the world is very clearly black, blacker and then there is that shining bright light that only he can see. There are those to blame and those to attack, there are those who have not been miraculously enlightened and those who stubbornly refuse to be saved. They don't read the right book of wisdom and don't accept the dogma - they are fools, they say, fools!

I have a commitment to learn something new every day - for one hour a day I do my best to learn about a subject that I may have only a passing knowledge of. This mental exercise is fun if you don't keep going back to the same sources all of the time - try it yourself sometime!

Like most people who prefer to deal with primary data, I have some difficulty in getting through the Cliff Note version of things. I always want to stop, ask for the backing data, review the methodology, whatever. But I don't have the time to be a wonk most of the time. I have to make decisions and I have to be particularly careful with placing my trust in others' judgments. But the rush of life does require that we all make those kind of choices.

Here is a link to the U.S. Census study the Atlantic references. Pages 7 and 13 contain charts with percentage change trends -

U.S. Census Bureau - Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2008

Now, for the most part I do like reviewing the raw numbers that the Census provides. They make a real effort not to distort them and they take care to explain their methodology. But one thing they do not do is go into what causes the numbers to change. Sure, they identify economic decline but make no mention as to what caused the decline.

For that, we might trust the Atlantic to provide linkages that are reasonable. Or we may not. The whole argument that is made in the article by a very bright author is that tax cuts cause economic pain. I don't accept his linkage, especially since he doesn't explain how he comes to that conclusion.

Ugh, why choose tax cuts specifically? The author of the Atlantic piece doesn't say. Could this be a preliminary defense of the huge pending tax increases of the Obama Administration?

Certainly Obama is not following Clinton's tax policy at all - Obama and team have been actively working against all four of the major themes of 1986: marginal rate cuts, tax base reform to increase neutrality and horizontal equity, distributional neutrality, and revenue neutrality.

So, the piece becomes a hit piece and serves no purpose other than to incite true believers like Craig234. Maybe this is an example of an incitement to riot, such as Madame Speaker Pelosi is crying about?

So, why don't you do a little bit of reading from sources that are likely not to have ever willingly passed before eyes crossed from too close a perusal of Mother Jones and... the Atlantic?

Where to start, where to start? How about the CATO Institute? Pretty solid researchers and anathema to the leftish (they just can't come out with that level of product.) Beside putting out great research and analysis, the Cato Institute has received a 4-star rating from Charity Navigator, America's largest and most-utilized independent evaluator of charities and non-profit organizations.

Here are three interesting pieces that relate to the OP and offer significantly more insight than the Atlantic article.

Obama's Treasure Hunt

An extract -

...the Obama administration should rethink its devotion to tax increases as the solution to seemingly every policy issue. Tax increases make no sense in the competitive global economy, and they imply that there are no savings left to be made on the spending side of the federal budget.

How about that comparison of global taxation trends? Please note that this article is from July, 2007 and does not specifically recognize the tax burden Americans are facing with Obama's bankrupting economic and social policies.

Corporate Taxes: America Is Falling Behind

And finally, how about a quick review of one of the causes of the recent economic malaise.

How Did We Get into This Financial Mess?

Lawrence H. White is the F.A. Hayek Professor of Economic History at the University of Missouri-St. Louis and an adjunct scholar at the Cato Institute. He is the author of Competition and Currency, Free Banking in Britain, and The Theory of Monetary Institutions.

Executive Summary

As policymakers confront the ongoing U.S. financial crisis, it is important to take a step back and understand its origins. Those who fault "deregulation," "unfettered capitalism," or "greed" would do well to look instead at flawed institutions and misguided policies.

The expansion in risky mortgages to underqualified borrowers was encouraged by the federal government. The growth of "creative" nonprime lending followed Congress's strengthening of the Community Reinvestment Act, the Federal Housing Administration's loosening of down-payment standards, and the Department of Housing and Urban Development's pressuring lenders to extend mortgages to borrowers who previously would not have qualified.

Meanwhile, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae grew to own or guarantee about half of the United States' $12 trillion mortgage market. Congressional leaders pointedly refused to moderate the moral hazard problem of implicit guarantees or otherwise rein in their hyperexpansion, instead pushing them to promote "affordable housing" through expanded purchases of nonprime loans to low income applicants. (see the specific reference to our friends at ACORN and how they have been instrumental in the over loading of the housing finance system. The deliberateness of the overloading being another issue and one directly related to ACORN's political/societal goal of destroying capitalist systems. More on this at a later time. - PB)

The credit that fueled these risky mortgages was provided by the cheap money policy of the Federal Reserve. Following the 2001 recession, Fed chairman Alan Greenspan slashed the federal funds rate from 6.25 to 1.75 percent. It was reduced further in 2002 and 2003, reaching a record low of 1 percent in mid-2003 - where it stayed for a year. This set off what economist Steve Hanke called "the mother of all liquidity cycles and yet another massive demand bubble."

The actual causes of our financial troubles were unusual monetary policy moves and novel federal regulatory interventions. These poorly chosen policies distorted interest rates and asset prices, diverted loanable funds into the wrong investments, and twisted normally robust financial institutions into unsustainable positions.

Conclusion

The housing bubble and its aftermath arose from market distortions created by the Federal Reserve, government backing of FannieMae and FreddieMac, the Department of Housing and Urban Development, and the Federal Housing Authority. We are experiencing the unfortunate results of perverse government policies.

The traditional remedy for the severely mistaken investment policies of private firms?shut and dismantle those firms to stop the bleeding, free their assets and personnel to go where they can add value, and make room for firms with better entrepreneurial ideas?is as relevant as ever. A financial market in which failed enterprises like Freddie Mac or AIG are never shut down is like an American Idol contest in which the poorest singers never go home. The closure of Lehman Brothers (and the near-closure of Merrill Lynch), by raising the interest rate that the market charges to highly leveraged investment banks, forced Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to change their business models drastically. The most effective and appropriate form of business regulation is regulation by profit and loss.

The long-term remedy for the severely mistaken government monetary and regulatory policies that have produced the current financial train wreck is similar. We need to identify and undo policies that distort housing and financial markets, and dismantle failed agencies whose missions require them to distort markets. We should be guided by recognizing the two chief errors that have been made.

Cheap-money policies by the Federal Reserve System do not produce a sustainable prosperity. Hiding the cost of mortgage subsidies off budget, as by imposing affordable housing regulatory mandates on banks and by providing implicit taxpayer guarantees on FannieMae and FreddieMac bonds, does not give us more housing at nobody?s expense.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
87,734
54,747
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I cannot believe that you made an appeal to consider a wide range of sources and then cut and pasted an analysis by the CATO institute. (with your qualifications for them coming from Charity Navigator!?!? We care about the quality of their scholarship, not their tax returns)

There's nothing wrong with the CATO institute, but you just committed the same sin you are accusing others of. I have no interest in getting into the roots of the economic crisis right now, but needless to say plenty of respected sources disagree with our good friends at CATO.
 

JSt0rm

Lifer
Sep 5, 2000
27,399
3,948
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Originally posted by: PJABBER
Coffee break time! Hmm. I think I am going with the French Roast. Sort of in the mood to keep it dark..

You should go with an Italian roast same boldness but with more earthy flavor. It will help with the shit you spew.

 

JKing106

Platinum Member
Mar 19, 2009
2,193
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Originally posted by: JSt0rm01
Originally posted by: PJABBER
Coffee break time! Hmm. I think I am going with the French Roast. Sort of in the mood to keep it dark..

You should go with an Italian roast same boldness but with more earthy flavor. It will help with the shit you spew.

Does anyone else find his Patrick Bateman routine hilarious, and yet pathetic at the same time? PJABBER, I mean.
 

zephyrprime

Diamond Member
Feb 18, 2001
7,512
2
81
Originally posted by: Patranus
Funny, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistic, the Bush tax cuts created 8 million new jobs.
Funny, according to the Federal Reserve, the Bush tax cuts created 15 trillion dollars in new wealth.
Funny, according to the IRS, the number of people filing return of 1 million dollars or more increased 95% and taxes paid increased 107%.

And yet, during bush's time, employment went down and total wealth went down. The third point is the only point I don't disagree with.
 

LunarRay

Diamond Member
Mar 2, 2003
9,993
1
76
Originally posted by: MotF Bane
Originally posted by: Craig234
Some might suspect that the 'dot com bubble' helped Clinton and the big crash hurt Bush in these numbers, but I think the numbers still have the correct message even when those are factored in. They show things that are there outside those things, and across decades of previous presidents too.

You think. Are you an economist? Statistician? Sociologist?

Hehehehhe, Economics as an Academic pursuit demands all three. Perhaps even as a Professional, maybe they are a bit more myopic in some regard... Economics IS a Social Science and Statistics are part of the tools to derive Economic sense.

I find all the generated information interesting but the real 'meat' is in the reality you can see as an every day 'Joe'. Most folks are 'Street Smart' having earned their degrees from the 'Sidewalk University'. These folks have as much insight into what is going on as anyone trained in the field. Knowing you have a belly ache is nice but it might be wise to see an MD to suggest the cure.
I used to suggest students to first look about themselves. What do you see? What is real? IF the analysis produced a few months hence does not comport to the Eye-ball's 20/20 then which is wrong?
The real feat lies in how to remedy what is really wrong. That takes insight into what caused it. One may gain a consensus on that and plod along to convince the decision makers but they are lagging the events by months or years and usually only compromise. Fiscal Policy remedies NEVER fully solve any problem. Generally, the problem(s) self solves by the time they actually put their decisions into action.

The first most important aspect of any Economic issue is the psychology of the people. What do they think is going on. Imagine if on Sunday the Preacher says "We are in the end times. Sell everything and buy gold and silver"... How many of these folks will do just that?

Folks think that Macro and Micro Economic activity is not related. Some think they are like friends living miles apart but in reality they are inextricably linked. Why do folks act as if they are not? I maintain it is cuz they filter most information or select certain data and input and generate a psychological reaction. Just like the thread postings here.

 

PJABBER

Diamond Member
Feb 8, 2001
4,822
0
0
Originally posted by: JKing106
Originally posted by: JSt0rm01
Originally posted by: PJABBER
Coffee break time! Hmm. I think I am going with the French Roast. Sort of in the mood to keep it dark..

You should go with an Italian roast same boldness but with more earthy flavor. It will help with the shit you spew.

Does anyone else find his Patrick Bateman routine hilarious, and yet pathetic at the same time? PJABBER, I mean.

Hmm. Interesting insult.

I worked on Wall Street and met Bret Ellis in the 90's (later than when he invented the character - which I firmly believe is a composite character of other guys on the Street that I know.) Anyway, I grew up in a poor family, ex-military officer, was much older when I started working in investments, etc. Not close to the Bateman character at all in terms of formative influences.

Never liked Ellis's books much. I refer you to a much more accurate, and funny, author - Michael Lewis. As a former wannabe BSD, I found his Liar's Poker to be spot on.

If you like the dark side of human behavior as it applies to the executive suite I highly recommend that you purchase the DVD collection of Profit, which includes all of the episodes that never aired.

Profit - The Complete Series (1996)

I will even throw in a :cookie: for you to buy your very own cardboard box!

:laugh:
 

First

Lifer
Jun 3, 2002
10,518
271
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Only on P&N does someone complain about biased linking, and then link to the Cato Institute. rofl! :laugh:
 

LunarRay

Diamond Member
Mar 2, 2003
9,993
1
76
Originally posted by: First
Only on P&N does someone complain about biased linking, and then link to the Cato Institute. rofl! :laugh:

Oh heck... It is only biased from the view point of the other side. :D

 

PJABBER

Diamond Member
Feb 8, 2001
4,822
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All valid points, LunarRay. Economics is just the painful elaboration of the obvious.

Old economics jokes heard at the Wharton School -

A physicist, a chemist and an economist are stranded on an island, with nothing to eat. A can of soup washes ashore. The physicist says, "Lets smash the can open with a rock." The chemist says, "Let?s build a fire and heat the can first." The economist says, "Lets assume that we have a can-opener..."

-------------------

Obama and Putin are taking a break from a long summit, Putin says to Obama,

- Barack, you know, I have a big problem I don't know what to do about. I have a hundred bodyguards and one of them is a traitor. I don't know which one.

- Not a big deal, Vladimir. I'm stuck with a hundred economists I have to listen to all the time before any policy decision. Only one tells the truth. But it's never the same one.

--------------------

More here -

Economics jokes

--------------------

I like this one the best -

A mathematician, an accountant and an economist apply for the same job.

The interviewer calls in the mathematician and asks "What do two plus two equal?" The mathematician replies "Four." The interviewer asks "Four, exactly?" The mathematician looks at the interviewer incredulously and says "Yes, four, exactly."

Then the interviewer calls in the accountant and asks the same question "What do two plus two equal?" The accountant says "On average, four - give or take ten percent, but on average, four."

Then the interviewer calls in the economist and poses the same question "What do two plus two equal?" The economist gets up, locks the door, closes the shade, sits down next to the interviewer and says, "What do you want it to equal"?

:D
 

gingermeggs

Golden Member
Dec 22, 2008
1,157
0
71
Originally posted by: Ozoned
Why did Rome fall, despite the best intentions of the defenders of Rome?

It became mercenary reliant, it's population grew greedy, fat, old and lazy- ohhhh and lets not forget it become christian!
any parallels there?
 

LunarRay

Diamond Member
Mar 2, 2003
9,993
1
76
Originally posted by: PJABBER
All valid points, LunarRay. Economics is just the painful elaboration of the obvious.

Old economics jokes heard at the Wharton School -

A physicist, a chemist and an economist are stranded on an island, with nothing to eat. A can of soup washes ashore. The physicist says, "Lets smash the can open with a rock." The chemist says, "Let?s build a fire and heat the can first." The economist says, "Lets assume that we have a can-opener..."

-------------------

Obama and Putin are taking a break from a long summit, Putin says to Obama,

- Barack, you know, I have a big problem I don't know what to do about. I have a hundred bodyguards and one of them is a traitor. I don't know which one.

- Not a big deal, Vladimir. I'm stuck with a hundred economists I have to listen to all the time before any policy decision. Only one tells the truth. But it's never the same one.

--------------------

More here -

Economics jokes

--------------------

I like this one the best -

A mathematician, an accountant and an economist apply for the same job.

The interviewer calls in the mathematician and asks "What do two plus two equal?" The mathematician replies "Four." The interviewer asks "Four, exactly?" The mathematician looks at the interviewer incredulously and says "Yes, four, exactly."

Then the interviewer calls in the accountant and asks the same question "What do two plus two equal?" The accountant says "On average, four - give or take ten percent, but on average, four."

Then the interviewer calls in the economist and poses the same question "What do two plus two equal?" The economist gets up, locks the door, closes the shade, sits down next to the interviewer and says, "What do you want it to equal"?

:D

That was funny...
I almost went to UofP but for my MBA, fine skule.

I actually functioned as a Controller/CFO so I've never been a so called Economist just in the world of academia one might and I say MIGHT say I could loosely be referred to as one of them. Adjunctive as it were. :D
Accounting from the eye of the auditor might use confidence levels... hehehe but I'm a or was a Management Accountant and so it either is or is not. hehehehehe The Corporate Cop!

 

Craig234

Lifer
May 1, 2006
38,548
350
126
Originally posted by: eskimospy
There's nothing wrong with the CATO institute...

Yes, there is - they're a libertarian ideological propaganda organization. Their function is to put out justifications for convincing people to support their right-wing donors.

Saying there's nothing wrong with them is like saying there's nothing wrong with going by OJ Simpson for expert info on his guil or innocence.

The very words 'think tank' have been corrupted since the 70's, as they imply some benevolent group of experts working for the public interest. That's not the case.

They're not 'a voice', they're a paid service for trying to push one view. Their propaganda is some of the more harmful to the public interest in the US.

They're in the top tier of a few harmful propaganda organizations, with AEI and the Heritage oundation.

Their funders include the radical right-wingg wealthy who fund these groups, such as the Olin foundation and Richard Mellon Scaife.

A couple quotes from 'Right-wing Watch' which tracks all three of these groups:

Cato leads the push for privatization of government services; as early as 1983, Cato initiated the first push for the privatization of Social Security, and has heavily backed it ever since.
Cato supports the wholesale elimination of eight cabinet agencies? Commerce, Education, Energy, Labor, Agriculture, Interior, Transportation and Veterans Affairs? and the privatization of many government services.

"My contact with [Cato] was strange. They're ideologues, like Trotskyites. All questions must be seen and solved within the true faith of libertarianism, the idea of minimal government. And like Trotskyites, the guys from Cato can talk you to death." -

"My contact with [Cato] was strange. They're ideologues, like Trotskyites. All questions must be seen and solved within the true faith of libertarianism, the idea of minimal government. And like Trotskyites, the guys from Cato can talk you to death." - Nat Hentoff, columnist

Here's their founder:

I think Franklin Roosevelt was a lousy president. What he did? which is to impose this great nanny state on America? was a great mistake.
- Ed Crane

You know what's funny, after writing the list of the above three groups, I ran across a source. FAIR, saying:

Three right-wing institutions--the Heritage Foundation, American Enterprise Institute and Cato Institute--maintained their respective positions as the second, third and fourth most cited. The top four think tanks were each cited more than a thousand times, and provided 46 percent of all think tank citations.

It was an article about how they're cited in the media without describing them accurately as a Libertarian right-wing ideological organization.

The Cato Institute was similarly not labeled in 68 percent of the 130 stories sampled. It was identified as "libertarian" 13 percent of the time, "conservative" 6 percent of the time, and twice was referred to as both "libertarian" and "conservative." One reference called the institution "free-market oriented."...

In sharp contrast, none of the top four think tanks were referred to as "corporate-backed" or any similar label.

 

Craig234

Lifer
May 1, 2006
38,548
350
126
Originally posted by: zephyrprime
Originally posted by: Patranus
Funny, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistic, the Bush tax cuts created 8 million new jobs.
Funny, according to the Federal Reserve, the Bush tax cuts created 15 trillion dollars in new wealth.
Funny, according to the IRS, the number of people filing return of 1 million dollars or more increased 95% and taxes paid increased 107%.

And yet, during bush's time, employment went down and total wealth went down. The third point is the only point I don't disagree with.

A little something on the third point from factcheck.org:

Sen. John McCain has said President Bush's tax cuts have increased federal revenues. But revenues would have been even higher without them.

Republican presidential candidate Sen. John McCain has said that the major tax cuts passed in 2001 and 2003 have "increased revenues." He also said that tax cuts in general increase revenues. That?s highly misleading...

The impact of the tax cuts on economic growth is a matter of debate among economists. We're not voicing a view on whether the tax cuts should have been enacted; that, too, is a separate discussion. But it is clear they did not "increase revenues."
 

PJABBER

Diamond Member
Feb 8, 2001
4,822
0
0
It was an article about how they're cited in the media without describing them accurately as a Libertarian right-wing ideological organization.

I like to think that they are predominantly Classical Liberal.

:D
 

heyheybooboo

Diamond Member
Jun 29, 2007
6,278
0
0
:laugh: at the Bush Apologists

In 8 years the USA went from a substantial unified budget surplus to this.

Would someone show me the spending offsets to balance the Bush/GOP tax cuts? Of course, the Apologists won't tell you the full effect of that Contard Train Wreck will not be felt until 2010

How did Bush and the GOP pay for Part D and the Iraq/Afghanistan Wars? All I remeber is something about being greeted as liberators, it would only cost $40 billion and pay for itself, bleh, bleh, bleh ...

BTW --- the current Federal Deficit:

48% is due to the Bush/GOP tax cuts
37% is due to the massive increases in military spending
15% is due to domestic spending

And then there is that oggly fact that the Bush revenue projections in the FY 2009 budget were only off by $1.8 trillion through 2013.


Like the American people will fall for any more of your Voodoo Economics ... :laugh: :laugh:


As a percentage of GDP federal revenues this year will 'soar' to levels last seen in .... 1951 !!!

(Aren't you glad the fiscal year ends in 2 weeks so the GOP can't take us back to the 1940s?)




 

PJABBER

Diamond Member
Feb 8, 2001
4,822
0
0
Originally posted by: heyheybooboo

As a percentage of GDP federal revenues this year will 'soar' to levels last seen in .... 1951 !!!

(Aren't you glad the fiscal year ends in 2 weeks so the GOP can't take us back to the 1940s?)

I thought the Democrats were in charge now?

A :cookie: to you for trying, though. :D
 

heyheybooboo

Diamond Member
Jun 29, 2007
6,278
0
0
Originally posted by: PJABBER
Originally posted by: heyheybooboo

As a percentage of GDP federal revenues this year will 'soar' to levels last seen in .... 1951 !!!

(Aren't you glad the fiscal year ends in 2 weeks so the GOP can't take us back to the 1940s?)

I thought the Democrats were in charge now?

A :cookie: to you for trying, though. :D

Thanks for playing Mr. BLATHER. Congratulations.

You get the Intellectually Dishonest Troll Propagandist of the Week Award :thumbsup: