The Downfall of Nvidia

[Genius]

As the saying goes, what goes up, must come down. I feel that Nvidia will soon take a turn for the worse now that they have reached the top. In my opinion, the only way they have gotten so far is because of excellent unsupport. By this I mean the leaked drivers/bios which are/were quite frequent. Not that they don't have some excellent hardware to go with it though. Nvidia is now faced with two problems (that I see). First and foremost, in my opinion, is the way Nvidia handles textures. As anyone who has played Unreal Tournament on an Nvidia based card knows, this is a severe bottleneck. Funny thing is that this problem has existed since the TNT 1. Not likely correctable in software/drivers. It won't be long before games are making Nvidia's hardware choke on itself, and they'll be in a position struggling to design new hardware to resolve it, effectively landing them in the same boat as 3Dfx is now. The next problem I think will contribute to their downfall is the driver leaking issue. While some of you might say that leaked, buggy, unsupported leaked drivers are horrible, there's no denying the fact that at least 75% of Nvidia's users live for the next leak. I think Nvidia is in a position now where they want to do away with the leaks, which will do nothing but hurt their image. And now, ATI has stepped into the scene with a remarkable piece of hardware, and they too are leaking drivers (follow the leader). I think our next champion will be ATI, and if 3Dfx doesn't go under, they will follow.

Anyways...just my 2 cents. What do you think?

 

[Pocatello]

Actually, nvidia still has plenty to grow. Compare to ATI, nvidia is still pretty small, but it's getting bigger.

 

[Sephiroth_IX]

<< and foremost, in my opinion, is the way Nvidia handles textures. As anyone who has played Unreal Tournament on an Nvidia based card knows, this is a severe bottleneck. Funny thing is that this problem has existed since the TNT 1. >>

This has nothing to do with texturing, this has to do with the Unreal engine. The Unreal engine is based in GLIDE, which is a 3dfx exclusive. Games since the TNT1 have been glide biased. Why do you think it owns in Quake3 but not in UT?

Also, did you notice that 3dfx whip complete ass in UT but not in any other games?


Either way, NVIDIA is here to stay. They know business and they do it well. Its hard to say which way the market is going, with 3dfx now using Gigapixel technology, ATI actully achieving, and Matrox with a hot g800 to slap Nvidia with... I guess we will just wait and see.

 

[Pocatello]

If we can predict where technology is heading, we'll be rich!

 

[Genius]

Sorry, perhaps Unreal Tournament was a bad example. Replace that with Midtown Madness. Or replace Midtown Madness with Direct3D.

 

[HigherGround]

<< that at least 75% of Nvidia's users live for the next leak >>



do you have any proof that confirms that number or is it because your fingers just happend to hit &quot;7&quot; and &quot;5&quot; in that sequence?



<< I think our next champion will be ATI >>



and you based that on...? the &quot;follow the leader&quot; example? or is it because it's easier to type ATI then Matrox or 3dfx?

my 1 cent...

 

[Genius]

BTW, I have a GeForce DDR and am in love with it. I'm not trying to bash Nvidia, I'm merely speculating, so please, let's not be immature and argue about why I chose to spell ATI over 3Dfx and Matrox.

 

[jmcoreymv]

Basically its just what you feel and has no real merit or evidence.

 

[Genius]

Brilliant observation. Forget it all then. I can't believe how many assholes there are around here.

 

[Sephiroth_IX]

Hey i wasnt trying to be an asshole, i backed up my thoughts with hard facts.

Either way, NVIDIA cards are quick in D3D, its only glide that they suck in (as they cannot do it)

 

[RagingGuardian]

Where's the article in discussion?

 

[Genius]

Sephiroth_IX,

Your reply wasn't neccessarily being an asshole, it just built the younger members up to bash my post. I find it a disgrace when people can come on the internet and be complete jerks to others and not even think twice.

My post wasn't supposed to be a hard evidence case against Nvidia. I love Nvidia, they are without a doubt my favorite hardware manufacturer out there, but I just think they might take small steps in the wrong direction. 3Dfx was king of the world once too. A time when we saw mini gl drivers released every other day, each speeding up by 3-5 fps, reaching for the accepted standard of 30fps. These little treats are something that keeps your customer base, when to goodies are gone, you fade away.

 

[KarlHungus]

Genius -

Since you are a GF user you might be interested in this thread. Looks like the UT/S3TC/GF problems have been solved.

 

[Leo V]

Just my 2 cents:

We have yet to see how NVIDIA will (mis)behave once it becomes a strong enough leader in PC graphics. So far, they have been exemplory in standard API support (especially with their commitment to OpenGL support under Windows/Linux). However, they have also consistently shown willingness to use legal bullying against competitors, as well as promotional hype blitzes against consumers, without restraint. They're also the only PC/3D graphics company that refuses to disclose their full hardware specs for open-source driver development.

With everything going their way, I cannot hope for the latter to change. Nonetheless, I hope that NVIDIA at least won't abuse its market position by adopting Microsoft's tactics of deliberate hardware/software incompatibility and semi-functional products. Hopefully NVIDIA'll remember that they became successful through doing the opposite.

 

[Finality]

Every other day?

You mean every 2 months.

They got to 1.5x on there mini-gl series for the V2. 3dfx always sucked at driver development even back in the day when they where king with V1/V2

 

[Midnight Rambler]

Seph,

I think you forgot about the Tribes problem ... :Q


<< 3dfx always sucked at driver development even back in the day when they where king with V1/V2 >>

Bull! They were one of the first companies (S3 was another) to widely release ref. drivers. Now if you had said Diamond sucked ...

 

[Rectalfier]

I don't discount the possibility that Nvidia could start going down. It is possible that Nvidia is spreading itself too thin moving into the chipset business and trying the capture ever corner of the market. However, if Nvidia proves itself in every market it enters, then it could be the next technology giant.

 

[Sephiroth_IX]

NVIDIA is in a powerful position, leading in video card manufacturing without a doubt. They have shown great planning, and also excellent penetration into a dominated market. If they play their cards right, this chipset move can give their video chips advantages that no other company can embrace.

I think the sound market is a much better place to run, however.

 

[BFG10K]

BTW, I have a GeForce DDR and am in love with it. I'm not trying to bash Nvidia, I'm merely speculating, so please,

If you start a thread, at least have the decency not to completely change the post after people have started to respond to it.

A time when we saw mini gl drivers released every other day, each speeding up by 3-5 fps, reaching for the accepted standard of 30fps.

Funny, the detonator drivers do this too. Each leak usually adds several fps or tweaks something somewhere.

On the other hand 3dfx's driver updates are really crap. Each new version I download eats away my framerates in Quake 3.

NVIDIA is in a powerful position, leading in video card manufacturing without a doubt. They have shown great planning, and also excellent penetration into a dominated market.

I agree with this and I disgree with the &quot;spread too thinly point.&quot; nVidia would never stretch their resources so that they would be backing themselves in the corner.

I am certain that the release of the GF2 MX into the general market was a planned and carefully crafted excercise. First they took over the high-end market, and now they are taking over the low-end market. It's that simple.

 

[Wingznut]

&quot;Funny, the detonator drivers do this too. Each leak usually adds several fps or tweaks something somewhere.&quot;

Unless of course, you have to use older drivers for compatibility reasons. Notice that they &quot;leaked&quot; (leaked, my @ss.) a bunch of drivers when the V5 came out. Since that time... pretty sparce. It's all about marketing.


&quot;nVidia would never stretch their resources so that they would be backing themselves in the corner.&quot;

Jeez, talk about blind loyalty. How in the world could you know that this could never happen? With this sort of insight, you surely ought to be investing in the stock market.

 

[Genius]

BFG10K1,

I had good reason to change the post before it generated any real responses. I changed it because people decided to bash, instead of hold a mature discussion. I am changing it back to the original now that it has become something more (even though everyone is still here to fight with each other).

 

[ElFenix]

nvidia has been market &quot;leader&quot; only since the tnt2 came out, then the matrox g400 max, which was actually faster given really great driver support, was discounted. i use leader in quotes because the max was faster, and when the tnt2 came out the v3 was faster. so they weren't really leader ever since the tnt2 came out, it was just proclaimed that way by some hardware sites on the net. they were undisputed leader when the geforce came out, and upped the ante with the gf2, which quickly had competition in the v5 and radeon. because of this competition they are bin sorting gf2s to make an ultra part, and also now a pro part since they have better ram now. nvidia can stary market leader as long as the keep hardware coming fast and furious.

we already know, however, that nvidia is not bringing out the nv20 until spring, so maybe someone (matrox?) could step in. the problem was addressing what gamers want. when the tnt2 came out, the hardware sites proclaimed 32bit to be king, not speed. but when the v5/gf2 came out, it was back to speed not image quality. say it swings back to quality, where matrox is king, and the g800 is faster than a gf2u, matrox might be proclaimed &quot;market leader&quot;

 

[Scorpion]

I don't see nVidia going downhill anytime soon. Personally, I think we should wait to see what their completely new designed chip(the NV20) can do before we write them off. Hopefully it's really fast, feature rich, and they impliment some decent 2D. I have a KVM switch and I go from my GeForce to my ATI Rage Pro, and it's like night and day almost... The GeForce's 2D is bad.

nVidia really has the potential right now to become the next technology giant. I just hope they don't do too much mucking about and start pulling a bunch of Microsofts.

 

[Blackhawk2]

My bet is on 3dfx if they can survive (taking into account loses and lawsuits). My reasoning is that Microsoft was looking very hard at Gigapixel's technology before Nvidia offered NV25, and the reason Microsoft went with Nvidia was because Nvidia had proven their technology worked where as going with Gigapixel would have been going with an unknown. Microsoft's decision was not based on which technology was better but on which technology had been proven reliable at the time. Knowing this gives us a much better sight into how powerful Gigapixel's technology was at the time. We must also take into account the technology 3dfx currently has plus an additional year of R&amp;D. The combined power of Gigapixel and 3dfx will be more than Nvidia can handle.

 

[Genius]

In contradiction to myself, Nvidia has just leaked some nice new drivers for us to play around with
By most accounts so far they rock too, can't wait to play!
Sucks I'm going out of town fishing all weekend