The "don't be a political hack/dick" thread on COVID-19 and consequences- SOLUTIONS for once if you have them.

[UNCjigga]

Looks like Germany figured it out:

Why are so few Germans dying from the coronavirus? Experts wonder

"I would be happy if we can come back in two months' time and still be able to talk about what Germany did right," one expert said.

www.nbcnews.com

Everything goes back to this Administration, and how they refused to implement a WHO testing regimen in favor of a homegrown solution—and said homegrown solution ultimately failing.

Testing everyone has benefits beyond just containment—it helps reassure the public and elected officials and helps them make better decisions about whether drastic measures are warranted. In Germany’s example, even as the case load was growing (more testing) deaths remained low (better isolation and treatment options) and they only needed social distancing vs. shelter-in-place and shut down the economy.

 

[JSt0rm]

Looks like Germany figured it out:

Why are so few Germans dying from the coronavirus? Experts wonder

"I would be happy if we can come back in two months' time and still be able to talk about what Germany did right," one expert said.

www.nbcnews.com

Everything goes back to this Administration, and how they refused to implement a WHO testing regimen in favor of a homegrown solution—and said homegrown solution ultimately failing.

Testing everyone has benefits beyond just containment—it helps reassure the public and elected officials and helps them make better decisions about whether drastic measures are warranted. In Germany’s example, even as the case load was growing (more testing) deaths remained low (better isolation and treatment options) and they only needed social distancing vs. shelter-in-place and shut down the economy.

cant make money off someone elses test.

 

[interchange]

The only way to make any progress is through enacting emergency powers and using them to:
1. Implement the restrictions recommended to enforce lockdown
2. Enhance access to point of care testing to basically universal
3. Closely monitor positives and contacts and require testing for contacts of known positives
4. Ensure all PPE goes to healthcare and is not available for private purchase

Then there needs to be radical temporary social assistance:
1. Cutting checks -- shortest term band-aid
2. Implementing disaster care response measures so that people can deliver basic goods to consumers
3. Temporary freeze on interest accrual
4. Massive extension of FDIC to protect bank panics -- would have to think this through to avoid bailouts
5. Probably have to close down markets completely to keep these measures from causing disaster

 

[K1052]

The only way to make any progress is through enacting emergency powers and using them to:
1. Implement the restrictions recommended to enforce lockdown
2. Enhance access to point of care testing to basically universal
3. Closely monitor positives and contacts and require testing for contacts of known positives
4. Ensure all PPE goes to healthcare and is not available for private purchase

Basically test the thing into the ground and hold it there, which should work until a drug or a vaccine is available.

In the near term this seems like the only viable path. The odds of finding a miracle therapeutic or antiviral already on the shelf aren't great.

 

[ivwshane]

Create hotlines for people to call into who need support (food, supplies, etc) at all levels of government.
Quarantine and treat all military personnel including national guard, and the reserves.

Utilize the defense protection act to find companies to produce essential items including make shift hospitals and pop up testing centers. Also utilize drug and research companies to jointly study the virus and work on a cure.

Have the federal government be the single point of contact for finding/distributing all medical supplies and needed equipment.

Test the essential personnel like the people who would be working for the above companies and who are part of the support system.

Initiate a federal lock down for at least two and a half weeks. Shutting down all trade and travel (except for things that are deemed essential) and suspending all transfer of money and/or interest/penalties/payments.

Use the various military branches to provide support and delivery of supplies and help to those in need.

Enforce the quarantine using local, state, and federal resources.


The important part is the initial testing of those that will be making contact with the public and the mandatory quarantine.

 

[interchange]

Basically test the thing into the ground and hold it there, which should work until a drug or a vaccine is available.

In the near term this seems like the only viable path. The odds of finding a miracle therapeutic or antiviral already on the shelf aren't great.

I think finding something useful is actually pretty reasonable but not going to be a miracle. It would need to fit with everything else and hopefully keep us from too badly overwhelming ICU resources. There may be more danger in people relaxing their vigilance, though.

 

[sdifox]

Self quarantine and wfh
Release stockpile of government cheese and other subsidy induced produce delivered door to door
Activate military to help in logistics and medical personnel/supply
Basic income for all.
Allow small business to operate on timeslot basis, phone order in, pick up at x time. Delivery to business handled same way.

Establish standard package handling protocol to include decontamination steps.

 

[Greenman]

Looks like Germany figured it out:

Why are so few Germans dying from the coronavirus? Experts wonder

"I would be happy if we can come back in two months' time and still be able to talk about what Germany did right," one expert said.

www.nbcnews.com

Everything goes back to this Administration, and how they refused to implement a WHO testing regimen in favor of a homegrown solution—and said homegrown solution ultimately failing.

Testing everyone has benefits beyond just containment—it helps reassure the public and elected officials and helps them make better decisions about whether drastic measures are warranted. In Germany’s example, even as the case load was growing (more testing) deaths remained low (better isolation and treatment options) and they only needed social distancing vs. shelter-in-place and shut down the economy.

Perhaps I'm misunderstanding the information presented, but it appears that Germany has a lower death rate because they're testing finds mild cases that aren't counted elsewhere. That doesn't indicate that fewer are dying, it simply means their model is more accurate.

 

[vi edit]

Perhaps I'm misunderstanding the information presented, but it appears that Germany has a lower death rate because they're testing finds mild cases that aren't counted elsewhere. That doesn't indicate that fewer are dying, it simply means their model is more accurate.

It's a lot of things, including that.

Also in the article:

"Another possible factor is that most of Germany's cases have been among younger people. The median age of those infected is 47, compared to 63 in Italy."

That's huge.

 

[pmv]

It's a lot of things, including that.

Also in the article:

"Another possible factor is that most of Germany's cases have been among younger people. The median age of those infected is 47, compared to 63 in Italy."

That's huge.

This article's a little out-of-date now, but it makes that same point.

Coronavirus: Why it’s so deadly in Italy

Demographics and why they are a warning to other countries

medium.com

Though more cases being among younger people seems directly related to the level of testing - if you test a lot more mild cases, you'll probably also find a lot more young people with the infection.

Also, I heard somewhere that Germany takes a much more conservative approach to assigning the virus as the cause of death. When someone elderly and/or with other health-issues dies, it can be difficult to say one single thing was the cause, and, according to what I heard, Germany tends not to ascribe it to coronavirus unless there's strong reason to think that was definitely _the_ cause. Whereas Italy tends to the other side and will count anyone who dies _with_ the virus.

In many cases the virus probably does push an already-ill person over the edge, but I can imagine that can be a difficult judgement to make, with scope for different interpretations.

 

[vi edit]

Italy had such a surge that it overwhelmed health systems and resources. Physicians and people themselves were forced to make decisions to let an older person die to give a vent to a younger one with a better chance. That's not a place that anyone wants to be in. But that's where we will be soon if we don't get things under control.

That said, I'm diverting away from the topic of this thread and not offering any solutions.

 

[pmv]

Re: solutions. Huge expansion of testing, economic supports in place to allow people to self-isolate without becoming destitute, more rational allocation of medical resources than the pure market will allow (the US has a reasonable number of intensive-care places, but they are geographically not very evenly-distributed, because of course it depends how wealthy an area is).

Testing would seem to be critical, surely? As then you know who can safely resume normal life and who should continue to keep away from others, either because they are infected or are vulnerable to infection. Seems as if we just don't know at the moment how many people have had it and gotten through it and perhaps become immune to it? Ridiculous that medical staff have to stop work and isolate becuase they _might_ have the virus, but in fact might not.

 

[UNCjigga]

It's a lot of things, including that.

Also in the article:

"Another possible factor is that most of Germany's cases have been among younger people. The median age of those infected is 47, compared to 63 in Italy."

That's huge.

Yeah, that probably has something to do with the lower rate in Germany too... but my point was that better testing helped determine the true fatality rate, and based on that data and knowing who had it where, Germany could avoid the more extreme control mechanisms.

What’s weird is how in NYC, I saw a data point that nearly half of all COVID-related hospitalizations are young people, aged 18-44. My sister was suggesting we could see more young people hospitalized based on novel American factors—I.e. vaping usage, marijuana smoking, or any number of other traits unique to American youth.