The current decade is the warmest on record

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piasabird

Lifer
Feb 6, 2002
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So how much temperature data did they have in 1880?

What about the drought and the dustbowl days? Seems like that would have been worse.

in the 70's we had a big drought in the midwest.

In recorded history does not go that far back.
 

werepossum

Elite Member
Jul 10, 2006
29,873
463
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On what basis do you 'know' that the data adjustments in the 'fudge factor' array reflect Briffa's post-1960 divergence problem? Or are you just making an assumption? If this is the case as you assert, then why is data prior to 1960 being 'adjusted' all the way back to 1924?

Also, why don't the adjustment factors more accurately follow Briffa's divergence curve? The divergence in 1984 was about 50% of the 1994 divergence...yet 2.6 divergence adjustments (x.75) were used for all data from 1969 to 1994. Please explain. Thanks.

Not to mention that applying divergence factors to part of your data without a testable, repeatable mechanism explaining why the divergence factors affect only that portion of the data makes your model pretty much worthless.
 

OutHouse

Lifer
Jun 5, 2000
36,410
616
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It's amazing all the peer reviewers for science journals we have right here. Who would have thought?

Experts in the field check things out and consider these methodological errors compensated for, but ATPN is on the case! Go get em guys!

man you are the worst offender. you seem to be a expert with every topic.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
87,758
54,781
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man you are the worst offender. you seem to be a expert with every topic.

If there's a topic I don't know something about, I read up on it and quote a source. Is that really so hard? (the answer is yes it is, because if people had to provide a source for half the stupid shit they post on here things would get mighty scarce) I find it interesting how much opposition my wish for people to back up their bullshit has gotten.

Since most of the discussion on here usually seems to be about political or military things, it's probably safe to say that I have more education and experience on those two topics than the vast majority of people on here.
 
Nov 30, 2006
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If there's a topic I don't know something about, I read up on it and quote a source. Is that really so hard? (the answer is yes it is, because if people had to provide a source for half the stupid shit they post on here things would get mighty scarce) I find it interesting how much opposition my wish for people to back up their bullshit has gotten.

Since most of the discussion on here usually seems to be about political or military things, it's probably safe to say that I have more education and experience on those two topics than the vast majority of people on here.
BS in political science and military experience after college? Late 20's?
 

shira

Diamond Member
Jan 12, 2005
9,500
6
81
On what basis do you 'know' that the data adjustments in the 'fudge factor' array reflect Briffa's post-1960 divergence problem? Or are you just making an assumption? If this is the case as you assert, then why is data prior to 1960 being 'adjusted' all the way back to 1924?

Also, why don't the adjustment factors more accurately follow Briffa's divergence curve? The divergence in 1984 was about 50% of the 1994 divergence...yet 2.6 divergence adjustments (x.75) were used for all data from 1969 to 1994. Please explain. Thanks.

I won't spend another second of my time explaining things to you. I won't spend more hours digging into the CRU emails and climatology research to clear up the confusion of you and the other climate-change deniers. That's your responsibility. If you want to state as fact that CRU engaged in fraudulent data manipulation, the burden is on YOU, not me.

The most honest, fairest statement you could make is, "I don't understand what these adjustments mean." But you don't do that. Instead, you in essense state, "Because it hasn't been proved to my satisfaction that CRU did NOT engage in fraudulent data manipulation, that proves that CRU DID engage in fraudulent data manipulation."

Your logic is: If A isn't proven true ==> A is proven false.

That's classic "God of the Gaps" reasoning: If you don't understand, then miraculous explanations MUST be correct.
 
Nov 30, 2006
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I won't spend another second of my time explaining things to you. I won't spend more hours digging into the CRU emails and climatology research to clear up the confusion of you and the other climate-change deniers. That's your responsibility. If you want to state as fact that CRU engaged in fraudulent data manipulation, the burden is on YOU, not me.

The most honest, fairest statement you could make is, "I don't understand what these adjustments mean." But you don't do that. Instead, you in essense state, "Because it hasn't been proved to my satisfaction that CRU did NOT engage in fraudulent data manipulation, that proves that CRU DID engage in fraudulent data manipulation."

Your logic is: If A isn't proven true ==> A is proven false.

That's classic "God of the Gaps" reasoning: If you don't understand, then miraculous explanations MUST be correct.
All I asked you to do was to back up your assertion and explain how the evidence you presented justifies the CRU's data adjustments. I gave you specific examples of where I'm struggling with your argument. And now...instead of talking it through... you want to run away. Sweet. :rolleyes:

Perhaps the most honest, fairest statement you could make is, "I don't understand what these adjustments mean." instead of trying to pawn this off as legitimate Briffa diversion adjustments. No?
 

shira

Diamond Member
Jan 12, 2005
9,500
6
81
On what basis do you 'know' that the data adjustments in the 'fudge factor' array reflect Briffa's post-1960 divergence problem? Or are you just making an assumption? If this is the case as you assert, then why is data prior to 1960 being 'adjusted' all the way back to 1924?

Also, why don't the adjustment factors more accurately follow Briffa's divergence curve? The divergence in 1984 was about 50% of the 1994 divergence...yet 2.6 divergence adjustments (x.75) were used for all data from 1969 to 1994. Please explain. Thanks.


Let's back up a bit, shall we:

Our latest series of exchanges began when you wrote (in part):

You've seen first hand how lack of transparency in this field has corrupted CRU in many ways....especially their intentional and fraudulent manipulation of data to exaggerate warming in recent years.

I challeged you on the bolded assertion, and wrote:

I hold you to the same burden of proof that you demand of climatologists. Lacking such proof, I insist that you stop posting as factual what amounts to personal conclusions based on exactly 0 objective evidence.

You, in response, presented me with a temperature modification expresssion used by CRU and asked me to explain it. Presumably, that was your "objective evidence" of fraud. Frankly, I should have stopped you right there. Your asking me questions does not constitute "objective evidence." It's not up to me to do the digging to determine if what CRU did was justified or not. "Objective evidence" means just that. All you have are subjective questions, and the answers to those question may or may not nail CRU. That's not "objective evidence." It's a hope and a prayer.

But I was weak, and my response to your question was intended to provide the context for the temperature modification, thus showing that the modification appeared to be benign, not "objective evidence" of fraud.

Now you've come back with additional questions about the correction. But note that these are again YOUR questions, not mine, and it's your job to run them to ground if you want to make "factual assertions" about fraud.

As to "what I know" - I don't, and I'm not making assumptions about any of this. I haven't dug into those specific questions yet and I don't propose to. I have the luxury of sitting back and letting you do the digging. I infer that your new questions are based on some blog from an ACC-skeptics site, to which I would ask you:

Have you back-searched the emails to determine why adjustments back to 1924 are being made? I'm sure there's an explanation somewhere. (I have my own theory: If Divergence is a consequence of continually-increasing CO2 levels, then it would be wrong to suddenly begin the adjustments at the point where the Divergence becomes evident, since smaller and shrinking effects undoubtedly go back many, many years. By way of analogy: Special Relativity is "true" even at non-relativistic velocities; so for maximal accuracy, relativistic computations should be performed even at non-relativistic velocities, even though the relativistic effects will be extremely small.)

How do you know that the adjustments are inaccurate? Just because someone on a blog says they're innaccurate doesn't mean they are.

Where are you coming up with the fact that the same adjustments were used for the entire 1969 to 1994 period? Again, just because an assertion to that effect is made doesn't mean it's true.

Are you sure you understand the entire algorithm used? It could be that additional corrections are made, and the combination is extremely accurate.

More generally: You're viewing scattered pieces of a much larger jigsaw puzzle. You're drawing conclusions from very limited information.
 
Nov 30, 2006
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I infer that your new questions are based on some blog from an ACC-skeptics site, to which I would ask you:

Have you back-searched the emails to determine why adjustments back to 1924 are being made? I'm sure there's an explanation somewhere. (I have my own theory: If Divergence is a consequence of continually-increasing CO2 levels, then it would be wrong to suddenly begin the adjustments at the point where the Divergence becomes evident, since smaller and shrinking effects undoubtedly go back many, many years. By way of analogy: Special Relativity is "true" even at non-relativistic velocities; so for maximal accuracy, relativistic computations should be performed even at non-relativistic velocities, even though the relativistic effects will be extremely small.)

How do you know that the adjustments are inaccurate? Just because someone on a blog says they're innaccurate doesn't mean they are.

Where are you coming up with the fact that the same adjustments were used for the entire 1969 to 1994 period? Again, just because an assertion to that effect is made doesn't mean it's true.

Are you sure you understand the entire algorithm used? It could be that additional corrections are made, and the combination is extremely accurate.

More generally: You're viewing scattered pieces of a much larger jigsaw puzzle. You're drawing conclusions from very limited information.
My new questions are based on my understanding of the algorithm and how it's being used. There are 20 elements in the array...the 1st one represents the year 1400 and the remaining 19 represent 5 year increments up to the year 1994. I surprised that you haven't figured this out based on how much time you've spent researching the subject. But anyway...my questions are not from any ACC-sceptics web site...these are my questions based on what I know about the workings of the data modification algorithm and my understanding of the Briffa 'bodge'.

My questions to you were based on what you presented to me as an explanation...I was attempting to discuss and understand your reasoning. Personally I think this is some sort of divergence adjustment...but a very questionable one as you can see from the unpredictable variance pattern after 1960. Briffa himself recommended NOT using the data after 1960. Is the intentional fraud? I can't say for sure...but I can say that we're apparently observing some highly suspect 'science'.
 

runzwithsizorz

Diamond Member
Jan 24, 2002
3,497
14
76
Simple. Follow the money. Al Gore has made millions on the "global warming crisis". Who stands to gain from this so called dire threat to mommy earth? Climate changes have been recorded throughout history...before man was a significant factor. Cap and trade, EPA calling carbon dioxide emissions a threat to humanity (even though every breath you exhale is Co2) is ludicrous. A money grab and more taxes at your expense. FOLLOW THE MONEY.