The Crash. When? How Bad?

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Lost_in_the_HTTP

Lost_in_the_HTTP

Lifer
Nov 17, 2019
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We've had ... what ... 12 years, maybe more of growth. Markets are nuts. Economists all say it's coming but they vary on when, why or how deep.

What say y'all?
 
nOOky

nOOky

Platinum Member
Aug 17, 2004
2,838
1,858
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Early next year. Not a crash per se, but a correction. The conservative media will roast Biden over it of course.
 
F

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,006
47,967
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Lost_in_the_HTTP said:
We've had ... what ... 12 years, maybe more of growth. Markets are nuts. Economists all say it's coming but they vary on when, why or how deep.

What say y'all?
Click to expand...
Economists definitely don’t all say it’s coming, unless you mean some vague statement about how at some point in the future we will have a recession, which is kind of just a truism.

I don’t see a crash any time soon, probably the opposite at least in the near term. We appear poised for significantly higher growth than we’ve had in the past decade.
 
Lost_in_the_HTTP

Lost_in_the_HTTP

Lifer
Nov 17, 2019
10,799
6,461
136
That was nothing, artificially induced. And it lasted what ... a few days? Markets were rampaging almost as soon as they dropped. Once people realized the sky wasn't really falling and that they'd been snookered that is.
 
Amused

Amused

Elite Member
Apr 14, 2001
55,854
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uclaLabrat said:
Am I fucking high? Does no one else remember like a year ago?
Click to expand...

The short term memory has been pathetic.

No one (mostly on the right) seems to remember gas prices pre-pandemic. Or that the pandemic crashed gas prices to record lows.

And that is just the start of the fucking amnesia lately.
 
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S

s0me0nesmind1

Lifer
Nov 8, 2012
20,828
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Amused said:
The short term memory has been pathetic.

No one (mostly on the right) seems to remember gas prices pre-pandemic. Or that the pandemic crashed gas prices to record lows.

And that is just the start of the fucking amnesia lately.
Click to expand...

Right... because people that work in the oil/gas industry... don't remember the pricing of the oil/gas industry....

You're fucking slow in life beyond repair, aren't cha?
 
Amused

Amused

Elite Member
Apr 14, 2001
55,854
13,966
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Lost_in_the_HTTP

Lost_in_the_HTTP

Lifer
Nov 17, 2019
10,799
6,461
136
Gas is going up because people are free again, no longer under threat of imprisonment for daring to step outside.

But that's not the point of this thread.
 
A

Amol S.

Platinum Member
Mar 14, 2015
2,390
709
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Lost_in_the_HTTP said:
We've had ... what ... 12 years, maybe more of growth. Markets are nuts. Economists all say it's coming but they vary on when, why or how deep.

What say y'all?
Click to expand...
There is going to be a slight dip. But there is the possibly of a very strong surge after that. Don't know the amount of time between the two, but the British and Euro markets are showing signs that the UK's market is a bit slower than the Euro market. GBP/EUR since the 2007-2009 stock market crises has been on a very slight downward slope. The Moving Average Convergence and Divergence since 2009 has been most of the time in the red. Probably soon the US could be seeing itself outpace UK.

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A

Amol S.

Platinum Member
Mar 14, 2015
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M

manly

Lifer
Jan 25, 2000
11,014
2,134
126
fskimospy said:
Economists definitely don’t all say it’s coming, unless you mean some vague statement about how at some point in the future we will have a recession, which is kind of just a truism.

I don’t see a crash any time soon, probably the opposite at least in the near term. We appear poised for significantly higher growth than we’ve had in the past decade.
Click to expand...
Are you conflating the stock markets with the real economy?

The current asset bubbles are driven by Federal Reserve policies and partly by high levels of discretionary income with few ways of spending it. Although I don't believe it's inflated larger than the .com bubble (meaning it won't crash like NASDAQ did in 2000), the total size of the equity and RE bubbles is much, much bigger.

I suck at stock market timing, but predict a roughly 30% drop from the recent peaks. I'd expect the absolute floor to be pre-pandemic levels, i.e. January 2020.
 
D

Denly

Golden Member
May 14, 2011
1,433
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With the world printing $$$, record low interest rate, bitcoin, retire saving funds, insurances, line of credit and other tools it is just flooded with money. Correction maybe I doubt there will be a crash in the near term.
 
F

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,006
47,967
136
manly said:
Are you conflating the stock markets with the real economy?

The current asset bubbles are driven by Federal Reserve policies and partly by high levels of discretionary income with few ways of spending it. Although I don't believe it's inflated larger than the .com bubble (meaning it won't crash like NASDAQ did in 2000), the total size of the equity and RE bubbles is much, much bigger.

I suck at stock market timing, but predict a roughly 30% drop from the recent peaks. I'd expect the absolute floor to be pre-pandemic levels, i.e. January 2020.
Click to expand...
I assumed the OP was talking about the real economy - that’s what I’m talking about at least. I do not anticipate a crash in the real economy any time soon, really the opposite.
 
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Meghan54

Meghan54

Lifer
Oct 18, 2009
11,528
5,045
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Amol S. said:
NY
www.nytimes.com

Scrutiny of Social-Distance Policing as 35 of 40 Arrested Are Black (Published 2020)

Mayor Bill de Blasio said the police had enforced rules properly, but other officials expressed concern about tactics similar to unfair “stop and frisk” practices.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com
Click to expand...

Wrong. That's not about just "stepping outside" dumbass. That was about groups congregating, but of course you knew that and yet you posted it as something other than it was. Why is that? Think everyone here except you is too stupid to read?

What a putz.
 
M

manly

Lifer
Jan 25, 2000
11,014
2,134
126
fskimospy said:
I assumed the OP was talking about the real economy - that’s what I’m talking about at least. I do not anticipate a crash in the real economy any time soon, really the opposite.
Click to expand...
He specifically said markets, and that's what everybody else is referring to. Outside of "black swan" events such as the Great Depression or Great Recession, there aren't that many real crashes in the U.S. economy as compared to stock market crashes.

As for the real economy, most projections are in the ballpark of 5% annual GDP growth in 2021 (over last year's depressed levels), so obviously nobody is expecting an economic crash soon.
 
F

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,006
47,967
136
manly said:
He specifically said markets, and that's what everybody else is referring to. Outside of "black swan" events such as the Great Depression or Great Recession, there aren't that many real crashes in the U.S. economy as compared to stock market crashes.

As for the real economy, most projections are in the ballpark of 5% annual GDP growth in 2021 (over last year's depressed levels), so obviously nobody is expecting an economic crash soon.
Click to expand...
Okay then, well I don’t try to predict the stock market because it’s a pointless endeavor.
 
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hal2kilo

hal2kilo

Lifer
Feb 24, 2009
23,425
10,320
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Lost_in_the_HTTP said:
We've had ... what ... 12 years, maybe more of growth. Markets are nuts. Economists all say it's coming but they vary on when, why or how deep.

What say y'all?
Click to expand...
I've heard about the impending doom of the stock market since, since forever. Funny play money has people confused for now. Let's make a fiat currency to avoid state fiat currency.
$15 away from my FB sell limit.
 
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