THE COMPLETE BREAKDOWN OF IRAQI WMD< YOU MUST SEE THIS

[Alistar7]

Claims and evaluations of Iraq's proscribed weapons


"It is not about Iraq's overall compliance with that resolution or subsequent resolutions on Iraq, including SCR 1441 (2002). For example, it does not attempt to analyse the extent of Iraq's obstruction of inspectors from UNSCOM, UNMOVIC or IAEA. It is instead a presentation of what is actually known about the weapons and programmes themselves. For the UN inspectors currently in Iraq, discovering what is unknown about the history and present status of these items is the task at hand. Inspectors must engage with the possibility of Iraq's retention or development of non-conventional weapons, and report to the Security Council on this basis. However, a set of evaluations can also be made of the likelihood of Iraq's non-conventional weapons programmes, given the material available. No overall judgements are made in this reference file, but material is presented that should allow a more well informed opinion to be reached."






"UNSCOM supervised the destruction of more than 40,000 chemical munitions, nearly 500,000 liters of chemical agents, 1.8 million liters of chemical precursors, and seven different types of delivery systems, including ballistic missile warheads.
More than 10 years after the Gulf war, gaps in Iraqi accounting and current production capabilities strongly suggest that Iraq maintains a stockpile of chemical agents, probably VX,[3] sarin, cyclosarin,[4] and mustard.


Iraq probably has concealed precursors, production equipment, documentation, and other items necessary for continuing its CW effort. Baghdad never supplied adequate evidence to support its claims that it destroyed all of its CW agents and munitions. Thousands of tons of chemical precursors and tens of thousands of unfilled munitions, including Scud-variant missile warheads, remain unaccounted for.

UNSCOM discovered a document at Iraqi Air Force headquarters in July 1998 showing that Iraq overstated by at least 6,000 the number of chemical bombs it told the UN it had used during the Iran-Iraq War?bombs that remain are unaccounted for.

Iraq has not accounted for 15,000 artillery rockets that in the past were its preferred means for delivering nerve agents, nor has it accounted for about 550 artillery shells filled with mustard agent.

Iraq probably has stocked at least 100 metric tons (MT) and possibly as much as 500 MT of CW agents."

Hopefully this comprehensive look can shed some light on the debate.

 

[cpumaster]

In some cases, it is quite clear that any stocks that were retained no longer exist in usable form. Most chemical and biological agents are subject to processes of deterioration. A working paper by UNSCOM from January 1998 noted that: "Taking into consideration the conditions and the quality of CW-agents and munitions produced by Iraq at that time, there is no possibility of weapons remaining from the mid-1980's" (quoted in Arms Control Today, June 2000). As discussed below, mustard constitutes an exception to this general pattern. This point was acknowledged by UNMOVIC in its 6 March 2003 working document, specifically about remaining warheads which had been filled with chemical agents, but seemingly applicable to any storage of chemical weapons:

"While 155-mm projectiles filled with Mustard could be stored for decades, it is less likely that any remaining warheads filled with nerve agents would still be viable combat munitions."

UNMOVIC, "Unresolved Disarmament Issues" (6 March 2003), p.55.

If the allegations that Iraq possessed a stockpile of illicit weapons were to be true, then the UK and US would need to present credible evidence that Iraq had managed to stabilise its chemical and biological agents to a greater extent than it is previously thought to have done. The UK dossier does not make this claim, except as an unsubstantiated assertion that Iraq had "the knowledge and capability to add stabiliser to nerve agent and other chemical warfare agents which would prevent such decomposition." The fact that this assertion falls short of the claim that Iraq actually achieved the stabilisation of its chemical agents can be taken as an acknowledgement that no evidence has been discovered - after over 7 years of intrusive inspections and 11 years of intelligence gathering - to demonstrate Iraq's retention of stabilised chemical or biological agents.

Bush II and Blair seemed to close their eyes and cover their ears to some of the reports regarding dubious claims and no evidence of further WMD in Iraq, but hey maybe they know more than what everyone know, and Bush II probably doesn't need to see the report since he consult directly with God
Thanks for the website, quite informative if you have time to read em all...

 

[Insane3D]

Bush II probably doesn't need to see the report since he consult directly with God

/Blues Brother's mode

We're on a mission from God.

/end Blues Brother's mode

 

[Alistar7]

UNSCOM discovered a document at Iraqi Air Force headquarters in July 1998 showing that Iraq overstated by at least 6,000 the number of chemical bombs it told the UN it had used during the Iran-Iraq War?bombs that remain are unaccounted for.

Iraq has not accounted for 15,000 artillery rockets that in the past were its preferred means for delivering nerve agents, nor has it accounted for about 550 artillery shells filled with mustard agent.


This is from the UN. There is no bias in this report, only the facts, accept them or not. Your denial suggests an inablility to change what you think in light of overwhelming evidence.


Nothing in there states conclusively what happened to them either, they remain UNACCOUNTED for, they have not just ceased to exist.

 

[43st]

Baghdad never supplied adequate evidence to support its claims that it destroyed all of its CW agents and munitions.

This has to be one of my personal favorites. It comes up all the time. It's like getting mugged in Central Park and you tell the mugger that you only have $10. And then he says... Prove to me you don't have more money.

Uhhh... ok!?!?!

How do you prove something doesn't exist? You certainly can't show them anything.

Anyhoo... I'm sure all those alleged scientists they've captured are spouting off all the weapon programs and locations.

 

[Insane3D]

The fact remains that these weapons could have been destroyed, they just may not of kept the proper documentation for it. If they are destroyed, but there is not proper documention to prove it, how can they possibly prove it? The US kept asking for proof of them being destroyed, but they didn't have it. This does not mean they were not destroyed, jus that they don't have the proof that will satisfy the UN or the US government. It seems like a no matter hat they did, it would not have mattered.

Nothing in there states conclusively what happened to them either, they remain UNACCOUNTED for, they have not just ceased to exist.

Just because they are unacounted for does not mean they still exist. WMD's that have been destroyed, but not accounted for do not exist.

 

[Insane3D]

Originally posted by: Thera

Baghdad never supplied adequate evidence to support its claims that it destroyed all of its CW agents and munitions.

This has to be one of my personal favorites. It comes up all the time. It's like getting mugged in Central Park and you tell the mugger that you only have $10. And then he says... Prove to me you don't have more money.

Uhhh... ok!?!?!

How do you prove something doesn't exist? You certainly can't show them anything.

Anyhoo... I'm sure all those alleged scientists they've captured are spouting off all the weapon programs and locations.

Exactly. If they are gone, how are they supposed to prove it?

 

[jaeger66]

100 metric tons and they can't find an ounce?

 

[cpumaster]

yeah here, the more complete quote from the website:

Iraq provided the 6-page "Air Force" document to UNMOVIC on 30 November 2002, as discussed in an article in The Times of 21 December. After reviewing it, Hans Blix, Executive Chairman of UNMOVIC, in his notes for briefing the Security Council of 9 January 2003, stated:

"The so-called Air Force document, which was provided separately from the Declaration, relates to the consumption of chemical munitions in the Iraq/Iran war. It was hoped that the submission of this document would help verify material balances regarding special munitions. After having analysed the document, we have concluded that it will in fact not contribute to resolving this issue. There remains therefore, a significant discrepancy concerning the numbers of special munitions."

Dr Blix elaborated on these comments in his update to the Security Council on 27 January 2003:

"The document indicates that 13,000 chemical bombs were dropped by the Iraqi Air Force between 1983 and 1988, while Iraq has declared that 19,500 bombs were consumed during this period. Thus, there is a discrepancy of 6,500 bombs. The amount of chemical agent in these bombs would be in the order of about 1,000 tonnes. In the absence of evidence to the contrary, we must assume that these quantities are now unaccounted for."

Dr Blix clarified his position in his briefing to the Security Council on 14 February 2003:

"To take an example, a document, which Iraq provided, suggested to us that some 1,000 tonnes of chemical agent were 'unaccounted for'. One must not jump to the conclusion that they exist."

More details are provided in the UNMOVIC Working Document of 6 March 2003: "Unresolved Disarmament Issues", p.50:

"The 'Air Force document' recently received by UNMOVIC introduces additional uncertainty in accounting as it indicates that 6,526 fewer aerial CW bombs (of gauges 250, 500 and DB-2 types) had been ?consumed? during the Iraq Iran War. Iraq has explained that the 'Air Force' document, which had been complied [sic] by one of its officers in 1995, was incomplete. According to Iraq, data on consumption of CW filled munitions positioned at three airbases was not included as the airbases had been occupied in 1991 and the records destroyed. This explanation is being reviewed by UNMOVIC."

Of these, 450 aerial bombs contained mustard, and would still be viable ("Unresolved Disarmament Issues", pp.76-77). The others, containing Sarin and Tabun, would no longer be of use (see below).

If you're going to use Iraqis own documents as proof of existence of unaccounted WMD, shouldn't you also have to accept their explanation of incomplete accounting technique in the July 1998 documents? following the logic of course...

Iraq declared that it filled approximately 13,000 artillery shells with mustard prior to 1991. UNSCOM accounted for 12,792 of these shells, and destroyed them in the period of 1992-94. However, Iraq also declared that 550 mustard-filled artillery shells had been lost in the aftermath of the Gulf War; it later (in March 2003) claimed that this figure was arrived at by way of approximating the amount used, for which reliable records are not available, and thus the quantity unaccounted for is simply a result of the use of unreliable approximations. UNMOVIC report that the 550 artillery shells would contain between them "a couple of tonnes of agent" ("Unresolved Disarmament Issues", 6 March 2003, p.76). The extent to which these - if they still existed - could constitute an ongoing danger should be assessed in light of the need to deploy large amounts of mustard for effective use.

Iraq has also cooperated in the destruction of remaining mustard items. 10 artillery shells were found by UNSCOM but were not destroyed before UNSCOM withdrew in 1998. As requested, Iraq kept these shells at al-Mutanna facility, where they were identified by UNMOVIC on 4 December 2002. On 11 February 2003, UNMOVIC reported:

"An UNMOVIC chemical team went to Al Mutanna, approximately 140 km north of Baghdad in preparation for the beginning of the process of destroying 10 155mm artillery shells and four plastic containers filled with mustard gas. The destruction process will begin tomorrow and is expected to last four to five days to complete. UNMOVIC chemical inspectors will work with an Iraqi team in the destruction process. These artillery shells were scheduled to be destroyed by the United Nations Special Commission (UNSCOM) in 1998 but the plan was halted when UNSCOM withdrew from Iraq."

Technical problems were subsequently reported, but destruction continued from 25 February 2003, and was completed by 5 March 2003.

With regard to the "1,000 tons of mustard gas", referred to by the State Department on 27 February 2003, this seems to be an exaggeration. The only mustard that is unaccounted for except for the artillery shells is the discrepancy revealed in the Air Force document between the aerial bombs that Iraq claims it used in the Iran-Iraq war and the lower figure for those used in that document (see above). As Hans Blix said (quoted above), the total amount of chemical agents in these bombs could be around 1,000 tonnes. However, a considerable proportion of this would be made up of Sarin and Tabun bombs, agents that would not have lasted for more than a few months, and not mustard.

well, unlike building or gun, chemical agents could actually ceased to exists if not properly maintain, due to leaks or due to expiration of their life/usefulness...

 

[Alistar7]

Originally posted by: Thera

Baghdad never supplied adequate evidence to support its claims that it destroyed all of its CW agents and munitions.

This has to be one of my personal favorites. It comes up all the time. It's like getting mugged in Central Park and you tell the mugger that you only have $10. And then he says... Prove to me you don't have more money.

Uhhh... ok!?!?!

How do you prove something doesn't exist? You certainly can't show them anything.

Anyhoo... I'm sure all those alleged scientists they've captured are spouting off all the weapon programs and locations.

If you have a problem with burden of proof that was required of Saddam maybe you should have advised him otherwise before HE AGREED AND ACCEPTED IT HIMSELF.

If you had taken the time to read the article and the 1,000 plus links that are included, you A.) would still be reading and not posting yet, B.) wouldn't be posting inane dribble like that, you would be going, wow, theres tons of sh*t we have no clue what happened to, wonder what happened to it anyway, where is it now.

UUhhh ok?

 

[Alistar7]

"well, unlike building or gun, chemical agents could actually ceased to exists if not properly maintain, due to leaks or due to expiration of their life/usefulness... "

They can add agents to stabilize them, they can also make fresh batches, lol.


UNSCOM discovered a document at Iraqi Air Force headquarters in July 1998 showing that Iraq overstated by at least 6,000 the number of chemical bombs it told the UN it had used during the Iran-Iraq War?bombs that remain are unaccounted for.



WHERE ARE THOSE READY TO GO WMD?

 

[CADsortaGUY]

Originally posted by: Insane3D
The fact remains that these weapons could have been destroyed, they just may not of kept the proper documentation for it. If they are destroyed, but there is not proper documention to prove it, how can they possibly prove it? The US kept asking for proof of them being destroyed, but they didn't have it. This does not mean they were not destroyed, jus that they don't have the proof that will satisfy the UN or the US government. It seems like a no matter hat they did, it would not have mattered.

Nothing in there states conclusively what happened to them either, they remain UNACCOUNTED for, they have not just ceased to exist.

Just because they are unacounted for does not mean they still exist. WMD's that have been destroyed, but not accounted for do not exist.

True, but....
If you were a ruler of a country and you had the UN and US telling you to get rid of things and that they want proof of their destruction(per cease fire agreement) would you not keep good records as to the destruction of said items? And if you did keep records why not show them to vindicate yourself?


CkG

 

[Insane3D]

Alistar...you are still avoiding the obvious. Just because they are unaccounted for does not immediately mean they exist by default. They very well may...but they just as easily may not..

 

[Insane3D]

Originally posted by: CADkindaGUY

Originally posted by: Insane3D
The fact remains that these weapons could have been destroyed, they just may not of kept the proper documentation for it. If they are destroyed, but there is not proper documention to prove it, how can they possibly prove it? The US kept asking for proof of them being destroyed, but they didn't have it. This does not mean they were not destroyed, jus that they don't have the proof that will satisfy the UN or the US government. It seems like a no matter hat they did, it would not have mattered.

Nothing in there states conclusively what happened to them either, they remain UNACCOUNTED for, they have not just ceased to exist.

Just because they are unacounted for does not mean they still exist. WMD's that have been destroyed, but not accounted for do not exist.

True, but....
If you were a ruler of a country and you had the UN and US telling you to get rid of things and that they want proof of their destruction(per cease fire agreement) would you not keep good records as to the destruction of said items? And if you did keep records why not show them to vindicate yourself?


CkG

You would think so...but we are talking about Saddam Hussein here. He is not exactly a "normal" person and or leader....

 

[CADsortaGUY]

Originally posted by: Insane3D

Originally posted by: CADkindaGUY

Originally posted by: Insane3D
The fact remains that these weapons could have been destroyed, they just may not of kept the proper documentation for it. If they are destroyed, but there is not proper documention to prove it, how can they possibly prove it? The US kept asking for proof of them being destroyed, but they didn't have it. This does not mean they were not destroyed, jus that they don't have the proof that will satisfy the UN or the US government. It seems like a no matter hat they did, it would not have mattered.

Nothing in there states conclusively what happened to them either, they remain UNACCOUNTED for, they have not just ceased to exist.

Just because they are unacounted for does not mean they still exist. WMD's that have been destroyed, but not accounted for do not exist.

True, but....
If you were a ruler of a country and you had the UN and US telling you to get rid of things and that they want proof of their destruction(per cease fire agreement) would you not keep good records as to the destruction of said items? And if you did keep records why not show them to vindicate yourself?


CkG

You would think so...but we are talking about Saddam Hussein here. He is not exactly a "normal" person and or leader....

So you'd rather give him the benefit of the doubt?

I sure as hell don't.

CkG

 

[Alistar7]

Insane if he agreed to destroy them and then did, whjy did he not also provide the proof he agreed he would? He IDID NOT WANT sanctions and inspections to stop? He did not want to stay in power wihtout oversight or restriction? Why were they still working on the programs into the late 1990's????

try to accept the fact you don't really know, you only have biased preconcieved notions about this action. This article states itself it makes no determinations or assumptions, it is a techinal breakdown of their programs to the best of the knowledge currently at hand.

WTF is with all these people acting as if it's so likely Saddam had no WMD considering his history?

 

[cpumaster]

Originally posted by: Alistar7
"well, unlike building or gun, chemical agents could actually ceased to exists if not properly maintain, due to leaks or due to expiration of their life/usefulness... "

They can add agents to stabilize them, they can also make fresh batches, lol.

of course they could, and I'll believe you when they were found! otherwise it is like saying I could have won the $30 million lottery if I bought the ticket, well show me the money.

Originally posted by: Alistar7

UNSCOM discovered a document at Iraqi Air Force headquarters in July 1998 showing that Iraq overstated by at least 6,000 the number of chemical bombs it told the UN it had used during the Iran-Iraq War?bombs that remain are unaccounted for.


WHERE ARE THOSE READY TO GO WMD?

probably not, otherwise it would have been used on our troops during the war, don't you think (or you don't think )?
quoted from the site you selectively quoted to support you stand:

The 'Air Force document' recently received by UNMOVIC introduces additional uncertainty in accounting as it indicates that 6,526 fewer aerial CW bombs (of gauges 250, 500 and DB-2 types) had been ?consumed? during the Iraq Iran War. Iraq has explained that the 'Air Force' document, which had been complied [sic] by one of its officers in 1995, was incomplete. According to Iraq, data on consumption of CW filled munitions positioned at three airbases was not included as the airbases had been occupied in 1991 and the records destroyed. This explanation is being reviewed by UNMOVIC."

Of these, 450 aerial bombs contained mustard, and would still be viable ("Unresolved Disarmament Issues", pp.76-77). The others, containing Sarin and Tabun, would no longer be of use (see below).

 

[Insane3D]

So you'd rather give him the benefit of the doubt?

I sure as hell don't.

CkG

No, not really. I just think that the fact he has no proof they have been destroyed does not immediately mean they are still in exisitence. The UN inspectors were testing areas that they had supposedly disposed of these weapons at for residue, but were pulled out before they really got much of a chance.

 

[Alistar7]

"selectively quoted"

theres probably a thousand pages, how could I not be selective, lol.

"of course they could, and I'll believe you when they were found! otherwise it is like saying I could have won the $30 million lottery if I bought the ticket, well show me the money."


I think we might be getting somewhere, you want to know where they are? WELL WE ASKED DI*CKHEAD SADDAM THE SAME THING FOR 12 YEARS, what answer did he give, got rid of them. Ok, how, cant remember, how, cant remember, any proof, no, oh well , CPUMaster believes you so we will go home now.

"Of these, 450 aerial bombs contained mustard, and would still be viable"

Where are those then?

You would believe Iraqi explanantions, notice their claims were being investigated, never PROVEN, so the 6,000 are still unaccounted for, they could have changed the loads to kepp them fresh, or those could have been stabilized before being loaded and are still usable.

What is known, they existed. Nothing else has been PROVEN, including their destruction, so all we know FOR SURE 100% is that they exist.

 

[cpumaster]

Originally posted by: Alistar7
Insane if he agreed to destroy them and then did, whjy did he not also provide the proof he agreed he would? He IDID NOT WANT sanctions and inspections to stop? He did not want to stay in power wihtout oversight or restriction? Why were they still working on the programs into the late 1990's????

try to accept the fact you don't really know, you only have biased preconcieved notions about this action. This article states itself it makes no determinations or assumptions, it is a techinal breakdown of their programs to the best of the knowledge currently at hand.

WTF is with all these people acting as if it's so likely Saddam had no WMD considering his history?

I am not saying Saddam doesn't have the ambition to own WMD, but the fact remain that his once alleged dangerous WMD program are nothing more than limited useless "easy-to-hide" but difficult to assembly weapon. I thought Saddam has repeatedly declare through his foreign minister and Iraq UN ambassador that they have complied with UN and ask for lifting of the sanction, the thing is US doesn't believe him and keep telling the world how much WMD he still posses... btw according to Scott Ritter one of the UN inspector, CIA and US military is using the UN inspection team to locate Saddam and try to kill him using the tomahawk earlier (Clinton era, 1998)

 

[CADsortaGUY]

Originally posted by: Alistar7
"selectively quoted"

theres probably a thousand pages, how could I not be selective, lol.

"of course they could, and I'll believe you when they were found! otherwise it is like saying I could have won the $30 million lottery if I bought the ticket, well show me the money."


I think we might be getting somewhere, you want to know where they are? WELL WE ASKED DI*CKHEAD SADDAM THE SAME THING FOR 12 YEARS, what answer did he give, got rid of them. Ok, how, cant remember, how, cant remember, any proof, no, of , well CPU Master believes you so we will go home now.

"Of these, 450 aerial bombs contained mustard, and would still be viable"

Where are those then?

You would believe Iraqi explanantions, notice their claims were being investigated, never PROVEN, so the 6,000 are still unaccounted for, they could have changed the loads to kepp them fresh, or those could have been stabilized before being loaded and are still usable.

What is known, they existed. Nothing else has been PROVEN, including their destruction, so all we know FOR SURE 100% is that they exist.

He He He - settle down man You won't change his mind No sense in giving yourself a heart-attack over someone challenging your posts.

<--needs to take my own advise at times especially in this P&N forum

CkG

 

[Alistar7]

but difficult to assembly weapon

"From three Iraqi defectors we know that Iraq, in the late 1990s, had several mobile biological weapons labs. These are designed to produce germ warfare agents, and can be moved from place to a place to evade inspectors. Saddam Hussein has not disclosed these facilities. He's given no evidence that he has destroyed them."

They found 20 such labs next t oan artillery plant, these were not difficult by any means, they were designed with that aspect in mind as well.


One of the most worrisome things that emerges from the thick intelligence file we have on Iraq's biological weapons is the existence of mobile production facilities used to make biological agents. [...]. We have firsthand descriptions of biological weapons factories on wheels and on rails. The trucks and train cars are easily moved and are designed to evade detection by inspectors. In a matter of months, they can produce a quantity of biological poison equal to the entire amount that Iraq claimed to have produced in the years prior to the Gulf War. Although Iraq's mobile production program began in the mid-1990s, U.N. inspectors at the time only had vague hints of such programs. Confirmation came later, in the year 2000. The source was an eye witness, an Iraqi chemical engineer who supervised one of these facilities. He actually was present during biological agent production runs. He was also at the site when an accident occurred in 1998. Twelve technicians died from exposure to biological agents. He reported that when UNSCOM was in country and inspecting, the biological weapons agent production always began on Thursdays at midnight because Iraq thought UNSCOM would not inspect on the Muslim Holy Day, Thursday night through Friday. He added that this was important because the units could not be broken down in the middle of a production run, which had to be completed by Friday evening before the inspectors might arrive again.

24 hours per batch, quick enough to reproduce pre 1991 war levels in MONTHS. Notice the eyewitness accounts from 1998, sounds like he was complying, did anyone ever explain to Saddam that destroy was not the same as the every similar sounding Iraqi word that means "produce"?

 

[sMiLeYz]

BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH...

I remained unconvinced until they find some freakin` REAL evidence of the existence of these WMDs.

EVIDENCE! NOT EXCUSES!

 

[sMiLeYz]

Originally posted by: sMiLeYz
BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH...

I remained unconvinced until they find some freakin` REAL evidence of the existence of these WMDs.

EVIDENCE! NOT EXCUSES

like our current administration has been giving us.

 

[cpumaster]

many of the source quoted are from CIA or State department via some obscure sources or from inside Iraq itself, such as the July 1998 documents, I'm not saying I trust Saddam and not the US govt, it's apparent that both side lied to achieve their objective, the question is how do you tell which one is lie and which is closer to the truth. Alistar7 you have obviously decided to trust the US govt 100% even before reading the material to voice your opinion. If that's the case, nothing I'd say would change your mind.
But the fact remain, of all those "unaccounted" for numbers, where are they now and isi it really easy to hide them or that hard to find them?
Like I say before, show me the unaccounted for WMD as alleged and I'll rest my mind peacefully.