The changing face of the Blue-Red divide.

[techs]

http://www.realclearpolitics.c.../maps/obama_vs_mccain/

It is interesting to see how the relatively static Blue-Red divide which held up for the previous two Presidential elections has changed.
Virigina used to be part of the Solid South and when the rest of the South went Republican along went Virginia for like 25 years. Now the geographic changes have moved Virigina into a Presidential toss up.
Here are some other states with significant changes, at least according to the lates polls. Whether the change is a result of these particular candidates, or a sea change in these states, is up to you to comment on.

North Carolina went for Bush by 12.4 and 12.8 percent and now its a tossup. Could it be Obama's strength amongst black Americans, or is NC now a swing state?

Colorado went for Bush by 4.7 and 8.4 percent. Now its Obama by 7.7 percent in the latest average polls. Is this the first sign of the West moving towards being swing states?

Anyone else see any long term changes out there?

 

[miketheidiot]

virginia and north carolina are in play, and missouri and indiana are coming closer. after that, its probably south carolina, then north dakota and Montana.

 

[techs]

Originally posted by: miketheidiot
virginia and north carolina are in play, and missouri and indiana are coming closer. after that, its probably south carolina, then north dakota and Montana.

Interesting. I have always thought that Indiana should be more Demcoratic, yet year after year they were solidly Republican.

btw notice how in the polls many of the states McCain is leading in, he is leading very big. And in many of the states Obama is leading in he has on the whole much smaller leads? It is actually possible that Obama could win the electoral college and not the popular vote.

 

[QED]

On the flip side, Minnesota, the proud home of Paul Wellstone and the only state to vote for Walter Mondale, is getting closer to becoming a toss-up state. The margin of victory for Democrats in Pennsylvania has decreased each of the last four Presidential elections.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: miketheidiot
virginia and north carolina are in play, and missouri and indiana are coming closer. after that, its probably south carolina, then north dakota and Montana.

None of those have any chance of going Blue except for North Carolina

This election all comes down to North Carolina North Carolina North Carolina

 

[kstu]

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: miketheidiot
virginia and north carolina are in play, and missouri and indiana are coming closer. after that, its probably south carolina, then north dakota and Montana.

None of those have any chance of going Blue except for North Carolina

This election all comes down to North Carolina North Carolina North Carolina

Virginia will be blue. I think you underestimate the power of northern VA dems. And even if you don't believe that, I don't see how you think NC will turn before VA.

 

[nageov3t]

are these long term changes or single-election changes driven by projections of increased black voter turn-out?

VA's been trending blue, but what about NC or Georgia?

 

[Genx87]

I'd say a lot of this is Bush. People arent happy with him and the republicans havent done anything to convince people they arent the party of Bush.

Give them 4 years and we will see how it looks after the democrats and Obama have full reign to fuck things up with no excuse.

 

[Vette73]

Originally posted by: kstu

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: miketheidiot
virginia and north carolina are in play, and missouri and indiana are coming closer. after that, its probably south carolina, then north dakota and Montana.

None of those have any chance of going Blue except for North Carolina

This election all comes down to North Carolina North Carolina North Carolina

Virginia will be blue. I think you underestimate the power of northern VA dems. And even if you don't believe that, I don't see how you think NC will turn before VA.

Yep I grew up in NC and now live in N.VA and VA will be blue long before NC will.

 

[Vette73]

Originally posted by: Genx87
I'd say a lot of this is Bush. People arent happy with him and the republicans havent done anything to convince people they arent the party of Bush.

Give them 4 years and we will see how it looks after the democrats and Obama have full reign to fuck things up with no excuse.

awwwww... Dems can;t use the same excuse as republicans and say it was "insert last Prez/Congress/current members holding things up/etc...." ???

 

[uclaLabrat]

Originally posted by: techs

Originally posted by: miketheidiot
virginia and north carolina are in play, and missouri and indiana are coming closer. after that, its probably south carolina, then north dakota and Montana.

Interesting. I have always thought that Indiana should be more Demcoratic, yet year after year they were solidly Republican.

btw notice how in the polls many of the states McCain is leading in, he is leading very big. And in many of the states Obama is leading in he has on the whole much smaller leads? It is actually possible that Obama could win the electoral college and not the popular vote.

Not a chance. Look at the national numbers. The states he's up big in have miniscule populations. I had more people in my high school class than most towns in ND. ID? KS? WY? Mostly rural areas, one or two "big cities". One county in CA would wipeout the statewide vote in a state like that.

 

[Pens1566]

Originally posted by: Marlin1975

Originally posted by: kstu

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: miketheidiot
virginia and north carolina are in play, and missouri and indiana are coming closer. after that, its probably south carolina, then north dakota and Montana.

None of those have any chance of going Blue except for North Carolina

This election all comes down to North Carolina North Carolina North Carolina

Virginia will be blue. I think you underestimate the power of northern VA dems. And even if you don't believe that, I don't see how you think NC will turn before VA.

Yep I grew up in NC and now live in N.VA and VA will be blue long before NC will.

How long ago was that? I agree that VA will switch first, but NC isn't far behind ...

 

[StageLeft]

Originally posted by: Marlin1975

Originally posted by: Genx87
I'd say a lot of this is Bush. People arent happy with him and the republicans havent done anything to convince people they arent the party of Bush.

Give them 4 years and we will see how it looks after the democrats and Obama have full reign to fuck things up with no excuse.

awwwww... Dems can;t use the same excuse as republicans and say it was "insert last Prez/Congress/current members holding things up/etc...." ???

No fair. Republicans in 40 years will still blame all the ills on Clinton, why can't the dems do the same thing?

 

[Genx87]

Originally posted by: Marlin1975

Originally posted by: Genx87
I'd say a lot of this is Bush. People arent happy with him and the republicans havent done anything to convince people they arent the party of Bush.

Give them 4 years and we will see how it looks after the democrats and Obama have full reign to fuck things up with no excuse.

awwwww... Dems can;t use the same excuse as republicans and say it was "insert last Prez/Congress/current members holding things up/etc...." ???

Sure they will try.

 

[Stoneburner]

Tuck Chodd was indicating Tejas may be a swing state by 2016 or so.

 

[Vette73]

Originally posted by: Genx87

Originally posted by: Marlin1975

Originally posted by: Genx87
I'd say a lot of this is Bush. People arent happy with him and the republicans havent done anything to convince people they arent the party of Bush.

Give them 4 years and we will see how it looks after the democrats and Obama have full reign to fuck things up with no excuse.

awwwww... Dems can;t use the same excuse as republicans and say it was "insert last Prez/Congress/current members holding things up/etc...." ???

Sure they will try.

Oh so you admit that most problem are because of republicans and their work, not "insert Clinton/minor dems holding things up/etc..."? :laugh:

 

[nixium]

Originally posted by: Genx87
I'd say a lot of this is Bush. People arent happy with him and the republicans havent done anything to convince people they arent the party of Bush.

Give them 4 years and we will see how it looks after the democrats and Obama have full reign to fuck things up with no excuse.

The Rs stand to lose no matter what in this scenario.

If the Ds fvck things up, then these states can go back to being Red as was their wont.

If they don't, then it greatly favors the Ds in future elections. Barring blue states turning red, they might become the Ds' insurmountable advantage.

 

[AstroManLuca]

A whole lot of states have been trending toward the middle. Minnesota used to be as safely Democratic as California or any of the New England states, but now it's virtually a swing state (2-3% margin of victory in 2000-2004). Similar deal for Wisconsin and Michigan.

Meanwhile, there are states like Montana, North Dakota, North Carolina, and Indiana that are still pretty safely Republican but are much closer now (or in the case of Virginia, they may go over to the Democrats this election).

What pundits have been saying is that this newfound closeness in certain states can be a way of putting strain on a candidate. If Obama has to actively campaign in Wisconsin and Minnesota (as he did today), that's time and money he had to spend there that he could have used elsewhere. Similarly, McCain is now reevaluating his Florida strategy now that it's gone from slightly (but safely) Republican to an almost complete tie in the latest polls.

 

[Stoneburner]

It's not a simple blue/red question. Obama's expanded playing field was peculiar to him. Part of it is probably race, part is probably youth movements, another is entirely uncertain. But just look at the Hillary electoral map. She was leading john mccain in Florida and Ohio by substantial margins BUT she was not close to competitive in NC, VA, CO, GA, MO, IA, NM. Obama brought a different map.

I think VA is going to be a genuine battleground for the next few elections. CO and NM already have been. NC and MO though... depends on the candidate.

 

[Lemon law]

Indiana last when democratic when the GOP ran Goldwater. And 2008 looks like another Goldwater moment for the GOP. This time around, its not all McCain's fault, its just a matter that GWB's second term would and does gag a maggot.

It somewhat does not matter who wins POTUS now, whoever wins is going to catch hell, as spending, expectations, and options will be cut to the bone. The United States is going to have to spend the better part of at least a decade to dig ourselves out of part of the hole GWB put us in.

My guess is, history will somewhat repeat itself, JFK, the civil rights movement, and the Vietnam war all caused what amounts to a radical restructuring of American Political allegiances, as the formerly democratic Solid South drifted to the GOP, and I fully expect the post 2008 period to cause a similar restructuring depending how the cookies crumble.

But in 2008, the Presidential election will hinge on the swing states. The dems should easily hang on to their blue States. But if the GOP cannot hang onto almost all of their Red States, McCain is doomed. And with 7 weeks to go, the economy is likely to be in far worse shape, as the other shoes keep dropping.

 

[deftron]

Obama/Biden did a rally in Fredericksburg


Fredericksburg is a very conservative mid sized town
that's halfway between DC and Richmond ... not really a suburb of either
It's about 70% rural or blue collar, 30% commuters.


Police said he drew 30,000 people

The town's population is 20,000 and 100,000 including the county.
Bush won the county in 2000 and 2004.

The speech was notable because it rained all day and people stood for 7 hours in the rain waiting for Obama. It was all over the news.
It rained during his speech too, and he continued on, without breaking

 

[Excelsior]

I am very happy that my home state is now a swing state.

 

[Buck Armstrong]

Originally posted by: techs

Originally posted by: miketheidiot
virginia and north carolina are in play, and missouri and indiana are coming closer. after that, its probably south carolina, then north dakota and Montana.

Interesting. I have always thought that Indiana should be more Demcoratic, yet year after year they were solidly Republican.

btw notice how in the polls many of the states McCain is leading in, he is leading very big. And in many of the states Obama is leading in he has on the whole much smaller leads? It is actually possible that Obama could win the electoral college and not the popular vote.

Indiana's a wierd state. They always vote Republican nationally, but frequently elect Democratic governors.

 

[AstroManLuca]

Originally posted by: Buck Armstrong

Originally posted by: techs

Originally posted by: miketheidiot
virginia and north carolina are in play, and missouri and indiana are coming closer. after that, its probably south carolina, then north dakota and Montana.

Interesting. I have always thought that Indiana should be more Demcoratic, yet year after year they were solidly Republican.

btw notice how in the polls many of the states McCain is leading in, he is leading very big. And in many of the states Obama is leading in he has on the whole much smaller leads? It is actually possible that Obama could win the electoral college and not the popular vote.

Indiana's a wierd state. They always vote Republican nationally, but frequently elect Democratic governors.

The reverse is true with Minnesota. Always Democratic in the presidential races, but we haven't had a Democratic governor since 1991, and our senate seats are more often divided than not.

There are a lot of states that regularly elect governors of the "opposite" party, though. Just look at the map on this page:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Governors

You've got some of the most conservative states?Montana, Wyoming, Kansas, Oklahoma, among others?with Democratic governors, while many liberal states (California, Minnesota, Vermont, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Hawaii) have Republican governors.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: Marlin1975

Originally posted by: kstu

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: miketheidiot
virginia and north carolina are in play, and missouri and indiana are coming closer. after that, its probably south carolina, then north dakota and Montana.

None of those have any chance of going Blue except for North Carolina

This election all comes down to North Carolina North Carolina North Carolina

Virginia will be blue. I think you underestimate the power of northern VA dems. And even if you don't believe that, I don't see how you think NC will turn before VA.

Yep I grew up in NC and now live in N.VA and VA will be blue long before NC will.

Obama needs North Carolina too so even if Virginia goes blue it is not enough to hit 270.

It's North Carolina North Carolina North Carolina