The brits are in for a rough ride

[pmv]

Did Parliament not have to vote on the tax cuts? If they did vote on it, isn't it all of their fault not just Truss?

Good question. I understand the traditional once-yearly "budgets" have to be debated and voted on by parliaments. Plus there's then a long process of passing the resulting 'finacnce bill'.

But I can't find any mention of there being a vote - or even a debate - about this one (which they weirdly insisted on calling a "fiscal event" rather than a "budget").

I mean, according to this, budgets in the traditional sense are supposed to involve a 4 day parliamentary debate. Unless my memory is playing tricks on me, I don't remember any such debate being reported on in this case. Maybe the fact they are calling this a "mini budget" or a "Fiscal event"(!) is important?

https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/role/check-and-approve-government-spending-and-taxation/the-budget-and-parliament/

 

[pmv]

One thing that worries me, is that, as I remember, things went very badly at the dawn of Thatcherism as well. As I dimly remember it, as soon as the sado-monetarism kicked in, there was an unexpected burst of inflation, as the 'speed of circulation' of the restricted money-supply shot up.

And then (this being a memory I'm much more confident about) there was a massive rise in unemployment, to the extent that some of her colleagues started worrying about revolution. Thatcher of course did her "lady is not for turning" schtick and held firm even as her follow Tories panicked.

What worries me is that as Truss imagines she's the reincarnation of Thatcher, she'll follow her heroine's template and decide she has to hold firm no matter how bad the economic destruction gets.

 

[pmv]

We get what you're saying about an undemocratic process. But hasn't the UK been voting in the Tories for many, many years? It's a bit silly to say we wanted BoJo, but not this other nincompoop. Like someone once said, "elections have consequences." If the U.S. and UK continue to vote for elites (or fascists) that can deceive half the electorate, then we are all fucked over by it.

This is a minor disagreement over nuance, but I think Truss is a different flavour of nincompoop from Johnson. I think people were stupid to fall for Johnson's "charm", but I can see why they did. He appealed above all to people's nationalism.

I don't think that the same voters who were duped by Johnson would have been likewise fooled by Truss. She's a full on class-war warrior, not the type to attract working-class former-Labour voters.

And in terms of personal charisma she's his diametric opposite. She talks like a voice menu. "Sorry, but the government is not available at the moment, please select from one of the following options".

 

[pmv]

I find it hilarious that the Lefties on my side of the pond so easily mesh with the Lefties on the other side.

"I didn't vote for it' (hand slammed for emphasis).
But almost 52% of voters did.

Whats deeply ironic is, the complainer remainers are indignant that they weren't successful in voting for people who will put other people in power who are unelected and almost untouchable or unappealable....

The EU is fractured, and it won't be but a couple years before more -exits start occurring and bilateralism returns. Italy and Poland have been expected for a while, however with the EU President recently outright threatening Italy, thats only given it more momentum.
The common response is that Italy is to far in dept to exit, which overlooks the very possible situation where Italy tells the EU to stuff WRT its debt to it.

Britain/UK got out early and ahead. Why some people are so stupid as to believe you can turn an economy around in a couple years after decades of off-shoring and being mis-managed is beyond me.

I don't really care about Brexit. I am not sure who I find more annoying - the obsessive Brexiters who don't seem to care about any other issue as long as we leave the EU, or the equally-obsessive EU-fans who don't seem to care about anything other than being in the EU (aka Lib Dems).

Both are marked by their extreme monomania, by they way they constantly bring "Brexit" into every discussion and tendency to think that anyone they disagree with about anything must be on the other 'team', as if the only political division that exists is 'Brexiters vs Remainers".

The problems are far bigger than Brexit.

 

[Vic]

1. Not when it's primarily caused by imports. Unless you think the local currency needs to appreciate relative to the foreign counterpart via reduced circulation locally. (happy to be educated on that BTW)

2. Agreed. Utterly criminal - and if the system cannot provide checks and balances to stop precisely this kind of thing, then politicians shouldn't be shocked when individuals deprived of everything take matters into their own hands.

To address your points:

1. While the rising costs of imported goods is a problem in post-Brexit now-Ukraine war UK, loose monetary policies during the pandemic from central banks worldwide in the driving force behind the current global inflation.

2. They won't be shocked. This might sound conspiratorial, but I believe policies like this are part of an international agenda among right-wing elites to push govts towards fascism. They are planning on controlling those pitchforks, and thus far it's working. Just look at Italy. History is repeating itself.

The larger issue behind all of this is that the developed world is in decline because of aging or even shrinking populations, which is reducing the sizes of their productive workforces (and economies). And due to the generational lag (babies born today won't be able to enter the workforce for a generation), the die is cast.
So there are 2 solutions. We can stay the course of liberalism and re-open the doors to immigration from the developing world. This is the winner IMO but at the same time is disruptive to national and cultural identities and the current wealth and power establishments. Or we can embrace nationalism, close our borders and preserve our national identities and power elites, and fight amongst ourselves and other developed nations over our dwindling wealth while the developing world ascends with its rapidly growing workforces.
War is coming, people. Fascism is at our doorstep. History is repeating itself.

 

[Vic]

One thing that worries me, is that, as I remember, things went very badly at the dawn of Thatcherism as well. As I dimly remember it, as soon as the sado-monetarism kicked in, there was an unexpected burst of inflation, as the 'speed of circulation' of the restricted money-supply shot up.

And then (this being a memory I'm much more confident about) there was a massive rise in unemployment, to the extent that some of her colleagues started worrying about revolution. Thatcher of course did her "lady is not for turning" schtick and held firm even as her follow Tories panicked.

What worries me is that as Truss imagines she's the reincarnation of Thatcher, she'll follow her heroine's template and decide she has to hold firm no matter how bad the economic destruction gets.

Same thing happened with Reaganomics (that everyone seems to forget). The 1st 3 years of Reagan's 1st term were brutal: record inflation and unemployment (worse than Carter), and a crushing recession. It was only after oil prices cratered that the economy recovered.
That reminds me of something too. Everyone likes to credit Reagan for ending the fall of the USSR, but it was actually that mid-80s oil crash that took down the Soviet Union.

 

[ElFenix]

Inflation is caused by excess monetary supply. So cutting taxes so that people will have more money to spend on the increased prices will only increase prices that much more. If the majority of people see this as a good thing then yeah.. people aren't that smart.
This is actually one of the economic scenarios where raising taxes on the rich is the good solution. There's too much money in the economy, govts need to take some of it out of the economy, and the rich are the ones who can take that blow with the least pain. Especially when the cause of that too much money was the Central Banks' obscenely loose policies during the pandemic, and the rich were the primary beneficiaries of that.
What UKs govt is doing, cutting taxes on the rich while raising interest rates on the rest is practically criminal wealth redistribution. The UKs GINI is gonna be like a corrupt 3rd world country after this.

*can be caused. and gini isn't an acronym.

loose monetary policies during the pandemic from central banks worldwide in the driving force behind the current global inflation.

is it? they weren't particularly more loose than they were in the prior decade. it may be a necessary condition (may), but it certainly doesn't appear to be sufficient.

 

[Atari2600]

loose monetary policies during the pandemic from central banks worldwide in the driving force behind the current global inflation.

Again - that doesn't square. The main concern is essentials, not luxury goods.

People aren't spending extra disposable income on loads of additional heating oil above what they previously bought.


The primary driver of it all is oil and gas prices. That's pushing up everything. Sort that and it'll sort itself.

 

[WelshBloke]

This is a minor disagreement over nuance, but I think Truss is a different flavour of nincompoop from Johnson. I think people were stupid to fall for Johnson's "charm", but I can see why they did. He appealed above all to people's nationalism.

I don't think that the same voters who were duped by Johnson would have been likewise fooled by Truss. She's a full on class-war warrior, not the type to attract working-class former-Labour voters.

And in terms of personal charisma she's his diametric opposite. She talks like a voice menu. "Sorry, but the government is not available at the moment, please select from one of the following options".

I remember her describing herself as a "professional controversiallist" once and it's always stuck with me. It explains a lot of her decision making.
A lot of what she does is just to piss off the 'other side'.
Hence she can be someone that swung from making speeches about abolishing the monarchy to someone who is pushing trickle down economics. If it pisses off people she doesn't like its automatically good.

 

[pmv]

_Now_ she decides to listen to advice?

Liz Truss to hold emergency talks with OBR after failing to calm markets

Exclusive: in unusual move, PM and Kwasi Kwarteng will meet fiscal watchdog after mini-budget sparked investor panic

www.theguardian.com

I liked this line

One government insider said the OBR meeting was “like trying to read the manual after you’ve broken the thing”

(First time in all this I've felt the smallest twinge of sympathy - we've all been there, surely?)

I liked this line more, though

Veteran Tory MP Sir Charles Walker said if the poll lead was repeated at an election, the Conservatives will “cease to exist as a political party”.

One can dream...

 

[WelshBloke]

_Now_ she decides to listen to advice?

Liz Truss to hold emergency talks with OBR after failing to calm markets

Exclusive: in unusual move, PM and Kwasi Kwarteng will meet fiscal watchdog after mini-budget sparked investor panic

www.theguardian.com

I liked this line



(First time in all this I've felt the smallest twinge of sympathy - we've all been there, surely?)

I liked this line more, though


One can dream...

There's a 46% to 29% Labour lead in the polls at the moment! And there's no way that either Labour doesn't manage to cock that up or that the general public get distracted by a spurious ad on the side of a bus before the election.

 

[Vic]

*can be caused. and gini isn't an acronym.


is it? they weren't particularly more loose than they were in the prior decade. it may be a necessary condition (may), but it certainly doesn't appear to be sufficient.

Thanks for corrections. I admit I typo a lot from my phone.

And yes, central banks' policies were considerably looser during the pandemic than any time in recent history. This was driven not just by low rate policy, but the removal of fractional lending requirements along with a greatly increased appetite for borrowing. As a result, M3 in the US increased at the fastest rate in history. So excess money supply, combined with reduced labor productivity, and labor and product shortages, created the current inflationary environment.
I can't stress it enough that central bank policies created this inflation. And then Putin came along with his little war and made it way worse.

 

[Vic]

Again - that doesn't square. The main concern is essentials, not luxury goods.

People aren't spending extra disposable income on loads of additional heating oil above what they previously bought.


The primary driver of it all is oil and gas prices. That's pushing up everything. Sort that and it'll sort itself.

But the inflationary cycle began back in 2020. All the data shows it, and there have even been many conversations right here on ATPN discussing it going back to 2020. While oil and gas prices did not start going up meaningfully until mid-2021 and did not accelerate to until earlier this year when Putin invaded Ukraine. So sort the war out, and you'll sort out oil and gas prices.
Consider this though, if oil and gas prices by themselves were the sole causes of inflation, and loose monetary policies had no involvement, then how would people have the money to pay the higher prices?

 

[Lezunto]

The Brits still act as if they have billions underfoot in colonies around the world.

Instead of realizing they're little more than a burnt out rock whose legitimacy as a world power is increasingly questioned.

 

[Indus]

There's a 46% to 29% Labour lead in the polls at the moment! And there's no way that either Labour doesn't manage to cock that up or that the general public get distracted by a spurious ad on the side of a bus before the election.

Why do the people hate Labour so much?

After all Tories gonna Tory!

 

[WelshBloke]

Why do the people hate Labour so much?

For all the talk of the liberal left wing press there really isnt any. Pretty much all the media in the UK is (big C) Conservative or (small c) conservative.
The second we had a leader of the Labour Party that was actually left wing ALL the press went nuts. Even now with Starmer (who let's face it, no one would call exciting or radical) the Labour Party are getting more stick over what they would do than Truss is getting for what she is doing.

After all Tories gonna Tory!

But that was the other Tories! These ones are different! /S

 

[UNCjigga]

Why do the people hate Labour so much?

After all Tories gonna Tory!

Not so much Labour in general, but Starmer in particular, and the fact that since Brexit and all her failures, Labour STILL hasn’t found a message to appeal to the masses. I don’t understand why it is so hard for Labour to simply rebrand as the anti-Brexit party and convince everyone that they always knew better. Well, it probably has something to do with half of Labour trying to cheerlead for Brexit after the referendum just to try and hold on to Labour constituencies that turned pro-Brexit thanks to disinformation.

Starmer doesn’t have 1/10th the charisma of a Tony Blair or even a Cameron. Truss might still be able to beat him once he stuffs his foot in his mouth.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

Probably just as relevant for the P&N thread, but I'll drop it here. So unqualified it hurts.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1575500470768242689

 

[pmv]

All the opinion polls continue to show the Tories are collapsing. If one goes by the most extreme of them, the YouGov poll, apparently that would translate to the Tories being left with _three_ MPs. (most of them in Lincolnshire, for some reason).

I can't decide if this means Starmer's "empty suit" approach - of doing nothing, saying nothing, and taking no positions that Labour could be attacked for, while waiting for the Tories to self-immolate - was the right idea after all. Maybe he's not lacking in conviction but just smart?

 

[MrSquished]

Probably just as relevant for the P&N thread, but I'll drop it here. So unqualified it hurts.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1575500470768242689

Wowsa. That would be basically exactly like a Trump interview would go, minus some insults, if he had to sit down and actually answer hard questions with journalists not letting him slide on redirection.

 

[ElFenix]

But the inflationary cycle began back in 2020. All the data shows it

where's that?

CUUR0000SA0    2018    M05    0.4
CUUR0000SA0    2018    M06    0.2
CUUR0000SA0    2018    M07    0.0
CUUR0000SA0    2018    M08    0.1
CUUR0000SA0    2018    M09    0.1
CUUR0000SA0    2018    M10    0.2
CUUR0000SA0    2018    M11    -0.3
CUUR0000SA0    2018    M12    -0.3
CUUR0000SA0    2019    M01    0.2
CUUR0000SA0    2019    M02    0.4
CUUR0000SA0    2019    M03    0.6
CUUR0000SA0    2019    M04    0.5
CUUR0000SA0    2019    M05    0.2
CUUR0000SA0    2019    M06    0.0
CUUR0000SA0    2019    M07    0.2
CUUR0000SA0    2019    M08    0.0
CUUR0000SA0    2019    M09    0.1
CUUR0000SA0    2019    M10    0.2
CUUR0000SA0    2019    M11    -0.1
CUUR0000SA0    2019    M12    -0.1
CUUR0000SA0    2020    M01    0.4
CUUR0000SA0    2020    M02    0.3
CUUR0000SA0    2020    M03    -0.2
CUUR0000SA0    2020    M04    -0.7
CUUR0000SA0    2020    M05    0.0
CUUR0000SA0    2020    M06    0.5
CUUR0000SA0    2020    M07    0.5
CUUR0000SA0    2020    M08    0.3
CUUR0000SA0    2020    M09    0.1
CUUR0000SA0    2020    M10    0.0
CUUR0000SA0    2020    M11    -0.1
CUUR0000SA0    2020    M12    0.1

maybe those half percents there in the middle but then it goes back down to 0 and negative

even if you just want to look at the leadingest of leadingest (gasoline), i don't think this bears out what you're saying

CUUR0000SETB01    2018    M02    1.6
CUUR0000SETB01    2018    M03    -0.2
CUUR0000SETB01    2018    M04    6.2
CUUR0000SETB01    2018    M05    5.9
CUUR0000SETB01    2018    M06    0.3
CUUR0000SETB01    2018    M07    -1.4
CUUR0000SETB01    2018    M08    -0.3
CUUR0000SETB01    2018    M09    0.3
CUUR0000SETB01    2018    M10    0.6
CUUR0000SETB01    2018    M11    -7.3
CUUR0000SETB01    2018    M12    -9.9
CUUR0000SETB01    2019    M01    -5.2
CUUR0000SETB01    2019    M02    2.8
CUUR0000SETB01    2019    M03    9.0
CUUR0000SETB01    2019    M04    10.3
CUUR0000SETB01    2019    M05    2.4
CUUR0000SETB01    2019    M06    -4.9
CUUR0000SETB01    2019    M07    0.8
CUUR0000SETB01    2019    M08    -4.3
CUUR0000SETB01    2019    M09    -0.9
CUUR0000SETB01    2019    M10    1.6
CUUR0000SETB01    2019    M11    -1.1
CUUR0000SETB01    2019    M12    -1.6
CUUR0000SETB01    2020    M01    -0.8
CUUR0000SETB01    2020    M02    -3.8
CUUR0000SETB01    2020    M03    -7.4
CUUR0000SETB01    2020    M04    -16.5
CUUR0000SETB01    2020    M05    -0.2
CUUR0000SETB01    2020    M06    10.0
CUUR0000SETB01    2020    M07    4.8
CUUR0000SETB01    2020    M08    0.0
CUUR0000SETB01    2020    M09    0.7
CUUR0000SETB01    2020    M10    -1.6
CUUR0000SETB01    2020    M11    -2.7
CUUR0000SETB01    2020    M12    3.4

 

[pmv]

Yeah, I'm increasingly-inclined to walk back some of my previous frustration with Starmer. I did find myself saying that passively waiting for the Conservatives to destroy themselves really isn't much of a strategy...but now it's looking like it wasn't a bad approach after all.

I do now find myself imagining a video-game type voiceover snarling "finish them!", though. Someone needs to put them out of our misery.

 

[pmv]

She's doubling-down. Now proposing a new round of 'austerity' and welfare and spending cuts to pay for the crisis caused by the stupid in aid of the rich. And we can't get rid of her. This is essentially a coup.

 

[Fenixgoon]

instead of "how to lose a guy in 10 days", yall are getting "how to destroy an economy in 10 days"

 

[fkoehler]

load of crap , EU has been growing not shrinking . bean hearing this exact crap for the last 15 years...... still waiting.......

And, people like you were saying this right up until Brexit.

Its not just yahoos looking ahead:

A Meloni election win could shift Europe's balance of power

The European Union's powerhouses will have to tread carefully around Giorgia Meloni if the nationalist candidate's coalition wins Italy's election on Sunday, or risk pushing Rome towards Hungary and Poland, European officials said.

www.reuters.com

Italy on brink of EU split as far-right could win in Brexit-like vote

Giorgia Meloni's right-wing coalition could upset Italy's relations with the EU if they win the general elections, a former Italian Prime Minister has warned.

www.express.co.uk

Hungary and Poland are in the running.
Realistically, even if none of them actually go for a full exit, wouldn't be surprised to see them start working together as a bloc to Brussels squirm.