The brits are in for a rough ride

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pmv

Lifer
May 30, 2008
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The tory party could yet become desperate enough to turn to Farage, but I think that would be too great a humiliation for them. I think they would have to get relegated to third place, but then where would Reform be then? If Reform did better then Farage wouldn't bother going to the tories, and if Reform did worse then why would the tories want Farage?

IMO the only reason for any kind of split to be occurring in the tory party is because they don't have a figurehead for their personality cult: success is more important than scruples for the conservatives. I think it's more likely that they'll go back to Boris than Farage (which I don't think is likely either, but it might happen if the tories are either relegated to third place, or their second place is approximately as good as third place).

Well, I probably should have said "Farageism" rather than Farage. It's not impossible they might end up with the man himself, but it's more that the party hasn't fully and single-mindedly embraced the racist xenophobic agenda. At least it hasn't yet. Hence their losing the votes of those who support that agenda to Reform.

And given the influence in the party of figures who clearly have interests that clash with that agenda (not least in their personally not being white, but also in terms of economic self-interests), I find it hard to imagine the Tories turning wholesale into the Reform Conservatives (or Conform, as one internet comment suggested they should be called). Johnson, I suppose, got the closest to squaring the circle, by papering over the divide with showmanship and lies, but those lies seem to have destroyed what little credibility he had, and without that I can't see how it can avoid a split.

I just can't see how they can keep the show on the road when they are so divided. The puzzle is how come the US Republicans are able to manage it.
 

mikeymikec

Lifer
May 19, 2011
18,596
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The puzzle is how come the US Republicans are able to manage it.
The personality cult. As long as they think Trump gives them a shot at power, they will/have put up with a heck of a lot more than they normally would. Even if the next election is close but they still lose, they'll stick with Trump until someone else comes along.

IMO, if the tories lose the next election, BJ will have another title shot. IMO against Cameron, because Cameron was the closest thing they've had to a reasonably decent leader in a *long* time. AFAIK there's no-one else.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
85,632
50,852
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Well, I probably should have said "Farageism" rather than Farage. It's not impossible they might end up with the man himself, but it's more that the party hasn't fully and single-mindedly embraced the racist xenophobic agenda. At least it hasn't yet. Hence their losing the votes of those who support that agenda to Reform.

And given the influence in the party of figures who clearly have interests that clash with that agenda (not least in their personally not being white, but also in terms of economic self-interests), I find it hard to imagine the Tories turning wholesale into the Reform Conservatives (or Conform, as one internet comment suggested they should be called). Johnson, I suppose, got the closest to squaring the circle, by papering over the divide with showmanship and lies, but those lies seem to have destroyed what little credibility he had, and without that I can't see how it can avoid a split.
I don't know what any party is supposed to do when they've discredited themselves as totally as the Tories have in the last 10 years or so. When you've failed this utterly at governance what are you supposed to say and what are the voters supposed to do? They gave the Conservatives a very large majority in government and they shit the bed with it, no?
I just can't see how they can keep the show on the road when they are so divided. The puzzle is how come the US Republicans are able to manage it.
US Republicans are united in their hatred of Democrats. The reasons why they hate them may vary but that's the central unifying principle and I'm not joking, it's mostly a cultural thing.
 

WelshBloke

Lifer
Jan 12, 2005
31,441
9,343
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At some point the Tory party will have a split (I mean this is pretty much what's occurring now). The right that are obsessed with brown people and people using specific toilets after proving what their genitalia look like, and the right that are more worried about taxes, the social welfare bill, and transfering wealth from the poor upwards.
We could end up with the original Tories full of the one nation lot and a new party full of culture warriors, and the free market xenophobes.
I'd imagine if that happened a few Labour members would switch to the centrist Tories.
 
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fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
85,632
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At some point the Tory party will have a split (I mean this is pretty much what's occurring now). The right that are obsessed with brown people and people using specific toilets after proving what their genitalia look like, and the right that are more worried about taxes, the social welfare bill, and transfering wealth from the poor upwards.
We could end up with the original Tories full of the one nation lot and a new party full of culture warriors, and the free market xenophobes.
I'd imagine if that happened a few Labour members would switch to the centrist Tories.
It would be darkly amusing if Cameron destroyed a two century old (depending on what you count) political party from an O’Hare UNO’s pizza.
 

pmv

Lifer
May 30, 2008
13,633
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I don't think there's anything much left of the "One Nation" strand of Conservatism. They were a product of a specific era and set of circumstances.

But there does seem to me to be a clear clash of interests between those who are concerned with money above all else, and those who mono-maniacally fixate on "culture wars".

I know to a degree the former will use the latter instrumentally, as a means-to-an-end (something that seems to happen quite openly with the Republicans). But Brexit and the arguments over immigration seem to show the limits of that - the two interests are incompatible on that topic - and even someone as insulated by wealth as Sunak, appears not to be completely unaffected by blatant racism (I choose to take at face-value his upset about that Reform guy using the p-word...I suppose it might just be a calculated means of attacking Reform, but it's probably genuine hurt, and for the first and probably only time ever, I sympathise with him).

Badenoch is confusing, though - simultaneously upset at racism (she was the only Tory figure to object to that Tory donor's appalling comments about Diane Abbott) but also an anti-trans obsessive culture-war warrior.

I think there might be room for two far-right factions - the "Tory" one more inclusive than the Farageist one, insofar as they'll tolerate Hindu-origin Indians or African Christians, and far less interested in 'levelling up' for poorer mostly white areas, but both seeing Muslims as the enemy.
 

mikeymikec

Lifer
May 19, 2011
18,596
11,277
136
At some point the Tory party will have a split (I mean this is pretty much what's occurring now). The right that are obsessed with brown people and people using specific toilets after proving what their genitalia look like, and the right that are more worried about taxes, the social welfare bill, and transfering wealth from the poor upwards.
We could end up with the original Tories full of the one nation lot and a new party full of culture warriors, and the free market xenophobes.
I'd imagine if that happened a few Labour members would switch to the centrist Tories.

But aren't both of those "rights" obsessed about transferring wealth to the rich?
 

mikeymikec

Lifer
May 19, 2011
18,596
11,277
136

I can't tell whether UK politicians are acting intentionally like only the next five minutes matter or they're just naturally myopic, but it's funny to watch the conservative party trying to be more far-right to court would-be Reform (and others) voters while Reform politicians are defecting to the conservative party because Reform is a bit too far-right for them.
 

sdifox

No Lifer
Sep 30, 2005
96,949
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Kind of need the election to finish. And wait for whatever is the actual date for new members to takeover.
 

Fenixgoon

Lifer
Jun 30, 2003
32,117
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So are the tories really going to get wrecked? I feel like everyone is so blasé about it that there is a possibility of low voter turnout. See: Bart vs Martin in The Simpsons
 

mikeymikec

Lifer
May 19, 2011
18,596
11,277
136
So are the tories really going to get wrecked? I feel like everyone is so blasé about it that there is a possibility of low voter turnout. See: Bart vs Martin in The Simpsons

The only regularly reliable poll are the exit polls (taken after people have voted) in my experience.

I remember past elections (pre 21st century) where early polls predicted that the tories were going to get wrecked, then the polls kept slipping slowly in their favour. That hasn't happened this time AFAIK FWIW. The tories have done themselves so few favours this time around that I really can't see them winning, IMO the best they could hope for is a hung parliament and then *maybe* propped up by Reform, but UKIP (what Reform is now basically) never won many seats, though it picked up a surprising number of votes.

The tories this time around are like what Labour was with Corbyn at the helm, they acted like dead men walking at the election, like they didn't want to win with Corbyn at the helm. I wonder if the tories have a similar dilemma.

I would be *amazed* if the tories scored a decisive win this time.

In terms of winning enough votes from the tories, Labour have made tactically obvious decisions, ie. try to look as right wing as possible and hope that the weight of tory failure makes people feel more comfortable about voting for the 'realistic nearest equivalent', plus people like voting for the winner.

I've tactically voted for Labour FWIW this time even though I'm extremely uncomfortable with the fact that I've only heard them pander to the right. My pragmatic hope is that they'll be like Blair's Labour who could have been a lot more left but at least they made improvements rather than pretty much exclusively letting things go to shit like the tories have... again.
 

pmv

Lifer
May 30, 2008
13,633
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So are the tories really going to get wrecked? I feel like everyone is so blasé about it that there is a possibility of low voter turnout. See: Bart vs Martin in The Simpsons

Big risk of complacency, given the opinion poll results plus the stupid voter-photo-ID law there could well be a low turnout.

Tories will most likely still lose, but complacency might well mean being denied the joy of seeing Sunak, Truss, Rees-Mogg, Hunt and Shapps lose their seats. And as Starmer doesn't seem to be offering very much, seeing that gang humiliated is the only thing to look forward to, really. I doubt anything will improve much under Starmer.

Frustrating that IDS (possibly the Tory MP I most detest) may be saved becuase of the local split caused by Starmer's wishy-washy stance on Gaza.
 
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pmv

Lifer
May 30, 2008
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Exit poll suggests it will be a big Labour majority. Looks promising. Just wish we had some clue what Starmer will do with such a majority.
 
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WelshBloke

Lifer
Jan 12, 2005
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Exit poll suggests it will be a big Labour majority. Looks promising. Just wish we had some clue what Starmer will do with such a majority.
He used to be a bit of a lefty so there's some hope!
 

pmv

Lifer
May 30, 2008
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OK, well so far Labour have 2 MPs and nobody else has any.

Following the Trumpist attitude to electoral process, I presume they'll stop counting now - no need to count all the other votes - and Labour will form the government, with their 2 MPs, constituting 100% of the Commons.

(If the % of Labour MPs goes down from 100% over the course of the night that will be clear evidence of electoral fraud!)
 
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