The Bounce: Obama's Gallup approval jumps nearly 10% in one week

[shira]

Yeah Romney is fvcked. I really hope Republicans realize this, the election is highly unlikely to be close; Romney has a very slim chance in hell of winning against Obama.

As I've said from the get go: He's an elitist asshole. This is why people aren't going to vote for him, plus he's not black, and minorities are growing at huge rates (90+% blacks will vote Obama). The Republicans' voters are almost unanimously whites and that approach that used to work won't anymore as minorities grow. Just shows how incredibly idiotic and out of touch Republicans are. What a terrible, terrible nominee. Shamefully poor choice.

Romney's election is over and there's no bright future for the GOP.

Voter ID and early poll closures in minority areas will help to ensure that only the "right" people vote.

 

[Ryan]

More good news for the Obama team: disapproval drops to 43%, approval at 50%. The bigger story is that in the election poll, Obama is a 50% and Romney is at 44%. This is the largest margin Obama has had over Romney in four months.

 

[PJABBER]

As the election will likely be decided by the results of eight swing states, those are the polls that have significance. It really doesn't matter if California loves Obama more.

Insofar as polling accuracy goes, I would credit polls of likely voters over those of registered voters.

Most of the polls I am seeing have a significant skew toward oversampling Democrats. If you believe the Dems will turn out in force again, then these might be accurate, but I don't see the enthusiasm that was there in 2008.

It looks to me like there was no more of an effective bounce for Obama than there was for Romney, once corrections are made for sampling issues.

Right now I am calling it an even race with the slightest post convention bounce for Obama. That bounce will fade very soon and it will be dead even.

The debates will be critical for both candidates.

Things really are heating up in the Mid East again, so a possible back swan event, like a Mid-East war, might determine how this election goes.

Feels good to know that sequestration will take down the military without a fight, doesn't it?

 

[jackstar7]

More good news for the Obama team: disapproval drops to 43%, approval at 50%. The bigger story is that in the election poll, Obama is a 50% and Romney is at 44%. This is the largest margin Obama has had over Romney in four months.

Which poll are you checking? I'm seeing one being talked about that makes it a 1-point race.

 

[Pens1566]

Hmmm ... who to believe, PJABBER or http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/. Tough decision.

 

[soundforbjt]

Which poll are you checking? I'm seeing one being talked about that makes it a 1-point race.

Let me guess, Rasmussen right?

 

[PJABBER]

Hmmm ... who to believe, PJABBER or http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/. Tough decision.

I glance at that analysis page every once in a while, but have come to think that in such a close race the swing state projections are unlikely to bear out. When you read that analysis, you will see that there is not a lot of confidence in the latest polling rounds and a number are actually favorable toward Romney.

Like I said, the debates will be likely to move the likely to vote undecideds, whomever they might be.

The get out the vote effort will also be critical this time around, so it will be union labor vs grass roots Tea Party Repubs.

The Rs have become confident in a number of places, ie Virginia, based on GOTV.

 

[jackstar7]

Let me guess, Rasmussen right?

ABC/WaPo I believe.

EDIT: Confirmed, ABC/WaPo

"Survey of 710 likely voters was conducted Sept 7-9 and has a margin of error of ±4% at a 0.50 proportion. "

Obama: 49
Romney: 48

 

[Ryan]

Which poll are you checking? I'm seeing one being talked about that makes it a 1-point race.

Oh, I don't know...how about the Gallup one? There are plenty of others...CNN has Obama with a 6 point lead.

 

[jackstar7]

The Rs have become confident in a number of places, ie Virginia, based on GOTV.

Meanwhile Ohio is leaning towards the President and all but locking up the EC without some real surprises for Romney.

 

[jackstar7]

Oh, I don't know...how about the Gallup one? There are plenty of others...CNN has Obama with a 6 point lead.

Not sure why the passive-hostility, just asking which ones you're citing.

 

[OneOfTheseDays]

I glance at that analysis page every once in a while, but have come to think that in such a close race the swing state projections are unlikely to bear out. When you read that analysis, you will see that there is not a lot of confidence in the latest polling rounds and a number are actually favorable toward Romney.

Like I said, the debates will be likely to move the likely to vote undecideds, whomever they might be.

The get out the vote effort will also be critical this time around, so it will be union labor vs grass roots Tea Party Repubs.

The Rs have become confident in a number of places, ie Virginia, based on GOTV.

Nate Silver is the undisputed king of political polling at this point. Nobody else has come close to his level of accuracy in the last few elections. In 2008 he predicted every single state with the exception of Indiana and a huge number of Senate/House races. The man knows what he's talking about, certainly more than you or I do.

The problem with your thought process is that you assume there is a large pool of undecided voters. There is not. We know this from all of the polling data that we've seen thus far. There is a small sliver of the electorate that is on the fence and Romney has to essentially win them by 4-1 or higher if he's going to overtake Obama at this point. This is just not going to happen, no presidential candidate has ever done that well in our history. Why do you believe Romney will be different?

Looking at the swing state polling reveals an even grimmer picture for Romney. Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin are all out of reach. Ohio is now moving solidly into the Obama camp, +5 from latest polls, and Virginia looks to be following suit. Without Ohio Romney cannot win this election.

The only swing states I'm willing to give Romney at this point are North Carolina and Missouri. There is a good chance he can pickup Florida too, but without Ohio it's pointless.

OHIO, OHIO, OHIO, OHIO. No chance for Romney if he can't win this state and Florida.

 

[PJABBER]

Meanwhile Ohio is leaning towards the President and all but locking up the EC without some real surprises for Romney.

Ohio is showing a very close race, and I would wait for more data to see if any trends show a break out.

Ohio polling.

 

[PJABBER]

Nate Silver is the undisputed king of political polling at this point. Nobody else has come close to his level of accuracy in the last few elections. In 2008 he predicted every single state with the exception of Indiana and a huge number of Senate/House races. The man knows what he's talking about, certainly more than you or I do.

Like I said, I don't doubt his competency and I read the entirety of his articles, but what I am reading is that he is hedging a lot. This means that he has reduced certainty based on what he is seeing as flawed polling. Garbage in gets you garbage out.

The problem with your thought process is that you assume there is a large pool of undecided voters. There is not. We know this from all of the polling data that we've seen thus far. There is a small sliver of the electorate that is on the fence and Romney has to essentially win them by 4-1 or higher if he's going to overtake Obama at this point. This is just not going to happen, no presidential candidate has ever done that well in our history. Why do you believe Romney will be different?

I think there is only a small pool of undecided voters. What I do want to see is likely voter enthusiasm - who is going to actually turn out. And for that I am more interested in GOTV. I see the Rs more than matching the Ds in GOTV this time around and almost as many pissed off voters as in 2010. Polling is very poor in capturing some of those elements.

Looking at the swing state polling reveals an even grimmer picture for Romney. Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin are all out of reach. Ohio is now moving solidly into the Obama camp, +5 from latest polls, and Virginia looks to be following suit. Without Ohio Romney cannot win this election.

I am not giving as much weight to convention bounces as you are. Barring a black swan event, I am holding off on calling the race for anyone until the debates are done with.

 

[jackstar7]

Ohio is showing a very close race, and I would wait for more data to see if any trends show a break out.

Ohio polling.

How do you get 3-5pts as "very close"?

Certainly something could shift, but Ohio looks to be going for Obama and that's practically the ballgame right there.

 

[Pens1566]

I'll take Silver's statistical analysis over pjabber's "feelings" any day of the week.

 

[Fern]

As the election will likely be decided by the results of eight swing states, those are the polls that have significance. It really doesn't matter if California loves Obama more.

Insofar as polling accuracy goes, I would credit polls of likely voters over those of registered voters.

Most of the polls I am seeing have a significant skew toward oversampling Democrats. If you believe the Dems will turn out in force again, then these might be accurate, but I don't see the enthusiasm that was there in 2008.

It looks to me like there was no more of an effective bounce for Obama than there was for Romney, once corrections are made for sampling issues.

Right now I am calling it an even race with the slightest post convention bounce for Obama. That bounce will fade very soon and it will be dead even.

The debates will be critical for both candidates.
-snip-

Exactly.

And unless something dramatic happens this will be a close election. And that's not just my hunch, I'm hearing it from Poly Sci Professors of major universities.

There's a bunch of misinformation floating around now. I sense some desperation. Lot of private polling going on we won't hear about. I think somebody's trying to manipulate big 'Mo'.

Fern

 

[jackstar7]

Exactly.

And unless something dramatic happens this will be a close election. And that's not just my hunch, I'm hearing it from Poly Sci Professors of major universities.

There's a bunch of misinformation floating around now. I sense some desperation. Lot of private polling going on we won't hear about. I think somebody's trying to manipulate big 'Mo'.

Fern

Isn't the whole point of polling so that you can found your thinking in data and not feelings?

 

[Fern]

Isn't the whole point of polling so that you can found your thinking in data and not feelings?

Your sentence is a bit awkward, particularly the use of the word "found", so I'm not sure I understand you.

But I believe professional campaign strategists would want an honest poll for the reason you cite. However, newspapers, networks and others commission polls for their own purpose. Like others, I see polls where the Dems seem obviously over-represented. I must wonder why.

I flip between the news channels to see what each is saying. As regards my comment about misinformation I see many here saying no bounce for Romney, yet Kirsten Powers, who is on the Left (and I think pretty hot), was reporting a 5% bounce following the Repub convention.

And here I see this joker claiming a 10% bounce, yet everywhere I look, and from what I hear from poly-sci professors, it's 3%.

Back to polling: It's not a perfect science and includes a good deal of 'judgement'. E.g., the ratio of Dems:Repubs:Indies that has a major influence on the results.

In any case I don't think the polls are worth a whole lot ATM. The campaign season is only 10 days old, with millions $ more to spend, and the debates haven't yet happened. Who knows what else may occur? My firm recollection is that McCain was holding a slight lead in the polls when the economy blew-up and he was stuck with his "I don't know sh!t about economics" comment. Now, he may not have won if the economy didn't blow-up until after the election, but his polling never recovered from that. We'll see if one of these two candidates can manage something similar.

Fern

 

[Agent11]

found
/faʊnd/

verb (used with object)
1.
to set up or establish on a firm basis or for enduring existence: to found a new publishing company.

2.
to lay the lowest part of (a structure) on a firm base or ground: a house founded on solid rock.

3.
to base or ground (usually followed by on or upon ): a story founded on fact.

4.
to provide a basis or ground for.

Origin:
1250&#8211;1300; Middle English founden < Old French fonder < Latin fund&#257;re, derivative of fundus bottom, foundation


Synonyms
1. organize, inaugurate, institute, originate.

It is a perfectly normal use of the word.

 

[Perknose]

Isn't the whole point of polling so that you can found your thinking in data and not feelings?

Your sentence is a bit awkward, particularly the use of the word "found", so I'm not sure I understand you.

Base. To base your thinking in data.

Definition of FOUND

1: to take the first steps in building

2: to set or ground on something solid : base

3: to establish (as an institution) often with provision for future maintenance

 

[OneOfTheseDays]

Your sentence is a bit awkward, particularly the use of the word "found", so I'm not sure I understand you.

But I believe professional campaign strategists would want an honest poll for the reason you cite. However, newspapers, networks and others commission polls for their own purpose. Like others, I see polls where the Dems seem obviously over-represented. I must wonder why.

I flip between the news channels to see what each is saying. As regards my comment about misinformation I see many here saying no bounce for Romney, yet Kirsten Powers, who is on the Left (and I think pretty hot), was reporting a 5% bounce following the Repub convention.

And here I see this joker claiming a 10% bounce, yet everywhere I look, and from what I hear from poly-sci professors, it's 3%.

Back to polling: It's not a perfect science and includes a good deal of 'judgement'. E.g., the ratio of Dems:Repubs:Indies that has a major influence on the results.

In any case I don't think the polls are worth a whole lot ATM. The campaign season is only 10 days old, with millions $ more to spend, and the debates haven't yet happened. Who knows what else may occur? My firm recollection is that McCain was holding a slight lead in the polls when the economy blew-up and he was stuck with his "I don't know sh!t about economics" comment. Now, he may not have won if the economy didn't blow-up until after the election, but his polling never recovered from that. We'll see if one of these two candidates can manage something similar.

Fern

Wrong, wrong, wrong.

Democrats are typically over-represented because there are actually more registered Democrats than Republicans in this country. You're attempt to paint polling as some kind of voodoo science is laughable to anyone who is actually educated in basic math and statistics.

Polling is by no means an exact science, but you'd be surprised to know how scarily accurate it is. Political polling, in particular, is HIGHLY evolved at this point. You're a fool if you truly believe Romney and co. are not shitting over the poll numbers that have been coming out. Every single move they make is based off of poll numbers. Where to deploy money, ads, etc. is ALL based on polling data they are collecting. When you see the Romney campaign pulling out of Michigan, Wisconsin, etc. it's because the polls are showing he's got no chance to win there.

From the myriad of polls that came out after the DNC we can find one common denominator. Obama got a bounce, a nice one. His base is coming home and taking many undecideds with them. Romney got NO SUCH BOUNCE from the RNC. This is terrible and terrifying news for the Romney campaign. There simply aren't enough game-changer moments left in the campaign and he's already 3-4 points behind at least.

This election mirrors Obama-McCain more than anything else. It's funny to me how people think Romney is going to somehow skyrocket after the debates. He'll actually have to explain the 50 different positions he's taken on every single issue. Couple that with the fact that he's not likable, not great on camera, and not really a better debater than Obama. There's a reason why Conservative commentators en masse are now defecting from Romney and casting doubts and aspersions. They see the writing on the wall that you can't see.

This election will not be close. I'm willing to throw money up on this one.

 

[Ryan]

Gallup shows favorable numbers again today for Obama - His disapproval drops to 42%, approval bounces up a notch to 51%..and there is now a 7 point gap in the election poll - 50% Obama to 43% Romney.

 

[monovillage]

"To be a tech site, ostensibly patronized by intelligent people, this forum has some of the stupidest, disingenuous, intellectually dishonest, and just plain sociopathic excuses for human beings this side of /b. I don't know if the toleration for such people is insouciance, pretense to honoring the First Amendment, or tacit approval. What I do know is it's a fucking embarrassment. I won't be participating any further.

P.S. Fuck you, too, to the inevitable "Good riddance." Most of you deserve each other."




Thank you, this has made my day....maybe even my month.

 

[Pens1566]

"To be a tech site, ostensibly patronized by intelligent people, this forum has some of the stupidest, disingenuous, intellectually dishonest, and just plain sociopathic excuses for human beings this side of /b. I don't know if the toleration for such people is insouciance, pretense to honoring the First Amendment, or tacit approval. What I do know is it's a fucking embarrassment. I won't be participating any further.

P.S. Fuck you, too, to the inevitable "Good riddance." Most of you deserve each other."




Thank you, this has made my day....maybe even my month.

Link? Is this a PM? Posting those can get you a ban.

Also, quoted for posterity.