The Bounce: Obama's Gallup approval jumps nearly 10% in one week

[woolfe9999]

As Republicans we don't have to gush about our candidates as if we were teenagers and they were our first crushes . It's only you Democrats that have to pretend you're still in high school at a pep rally and act like a Tiger Beat fan club. It's an election folks, they're politicians.

You're right. Conservatives are better known for hating the dem candidate than for liking their own. I guess each side directs its emotion differently.

 

[Moonbeam]

You cannot deny the man can give a good speech... that is his gift. It is also fortunate that his supporters don't care about the reality of the situation but prefer the feeling of well being they get from his speeches.

An exact description of how the conservative mind sees the world. One doesn't know whether to laugh or to cry. But you have brass.

 

[Moonbeam]

What an excellent piece, thanks for the link to the article. Time will tell if the bounce sticks or not. With the media on board (hey, unemployment went down to 8.1%, hooray for the great leader!) they have a better chance of fooling the people just long enough to have another go at wrecking the country, we'll know in 60 days.

Why is it that you psychopaths, with the science flowing in, showing your life in an altered reality separate and immune to fact, still keep insisting you take over government when you believe it is evil. What is it going to take to show you that you are the ones that are evil, the complete destruction of the country you unconsciously wish to die?

 

[JEDIYoda]

actually his supporters do know the reality of the situation - thats why they support him!!

The Republican are on record stating they will do anything and all things to see that Obama does not succeed......

 

[mshan]

Mitt the Twit Strikes Again! (yes folks, you read that right, he got a NEGATIVE convention bounce!!!):

"Some notes and caveats…

As always, this EV history is viewed through state polls only, using Electoral College mechanisms. Therefore it is most sensitive to swing-state changes. In practice, changes in this index resemble changes in national polls. However, since the state polls sample more voters, the Meta-analysis has considerably less noise.

The horizontal axis reports the date that polls were released, and therefore when they entered the Meta-analysis. This accounts for the 2-3 day delay for a news event to exert its effect. I have color-coded the events for clarity.

The following events appear to be notable: the Bain Capital/tax return attacks, the Ryan VP pick, the Todd Akin “legitimate-rape” comment, and the last day of the Republican National Convention.



Some notes:

Bain Capital/tax returns. As I noted at the time, this attack appeared to be very effective. I note that July 13th, which is nearby, was when President Obama made the “you didn’t build that” remark. I think we can safely discard the hypothesis that the remark was a major, immediate help to Romney.


The Ryan VP pick. The pick of Paul Ryan on the GOP ticket led to major media saturation, and positive attention for Romney/Ryan. This drowned out other stories. As I pointed out at the time, the political media seems to be unable to cover more than one story at a time. This could account for the large, sudden shift.


Todd Akin. However, the Ryan bounce lasted exactly one news cycle (i.e. one week). Todd Akin’s remark that “legitimate” rape victims don’t get pregnant may have hurt Romney…or maybe it just reset the media’s mindless attention.

The negative GOP bounce. As I stated before, the GOP convention was of no help to them in the Electoral College. Indeed, it appears that the race shifted towards President Obama by 6-15 EV, or about 1.0% of Popular Vote Meta-Margin. From an analytical perspective, a negative bounce is quite remarkable. Such an event might have been missed in past years because national polls don’t have the best resolution.



The natural question arises: why would the Republicans be hurt by their own convention? Two answers come to mind.

(1) The Ryan-VP bounce effectively used up whatever room there was for a bounce. This year, opinion seems to be fluctuating in a very narrow range: Obama up by 1.0-5.0%. Maybe there was no room for improvement.

(2) The GOP convention was not particularly inspiring. Indeed, the most notable event was Clint Eastwood’s empty-chair routine, which overshadowed Romney’s acceptance speech.


And now we wait for the post-DNC bounce. I wrote the other day that given the narrow band of opinion movement, I will be surprised to see the bounce to go above 5.0% in Meta-margin or 330 EV. On the other hand, it was a very strong convention. The test will come in the numbers."


http://election.princeton.edu/2012/09/07/the-gop-convention-negative-bounce-a-final-look/

 

[mshan]

Black Swan Events:

"Eric Fisher // Sep 6, 2012 at 8:18 pm

Sam,

You are an excellent Matlab coder, and you have me as an academic hooked on what you are doing. I will try to get some students interested in this kind of modeling. It has broader applications in economics and finance.

Simple technical question: the time series properties of your Meta-margin seem to indicate that one campaign of attack ads (Bain Capital) can move the margin easily by two points. Perhaps some heavy Romney spending in FL and OH could bear fruit. Then the election would be a toss-up. Do you know how often the metamargin has moved 2% in a week in the years for which you have been doing this analysis?

That’s not how I understand Taleb’s notion of a black swan.

Eric

Sam Wang // Sep 6, 2012 at 10:41 pm

Eric Fisher – thank you. I wrote the MATLAB. Andrew Ferguson wrote the python.

A black swan would be a totally unexpected event like a hostage crisis or an economic collapse. Its effect would have to last until the election.

2% in a week: Swift Boat campaign, Sarah Palin VP nomination, Lehman Brothers collapse."




http://election.princeton.edu/2012/09/06/general-overview-sept-2012/

(one of that pollster's postings said he felt likelihood of Black Swan game changer for Romney was about 12% a few days ago)

 

[monovillage]

craig is that you?

 

[Jhhnn]

craig is that you?

Desperate again?

The R&R campaign should be.

 

[monovillage]

Desperate again?

The R&R campaign should be.

R&R pwnz joo

 

[Balt]

Peggy Noonan labeled it a "dead cat bounce", but pep rally cheer squads can gush about their fav!

Sorry, I should have included her piece.

http://online.wsj.com/article/declarations.html

"Republicans shut me out of a hearing on contraception," Ms. Fluke said. But why would anyone have included a Georgetown law student who never worked her way onto the national stage until she was plucked, by the left, as a personable victim?

Um. The left didn't create the notability of Ms. Fluke. Rush Limbaugh did that. It would never have been a major story if he hadn't compared her to a slut and a prostitute.

 

[Jhhnn]

Um. The left didn't create the notability of Ms. Fluke. Rush Limbaugh did that. It would never have been a major story if he hadn't compared her to a slut and a prostitute.

He just needed a name to put on his straw-woman, that's all.

He essentially argued that any woman who ever had sex outside of marriage & used birth control at the time is a slut, which is most of the women in America.

They understood what he said all too well, even if his boneheaded male defenders & fanbois failed to grasp that...

Too bad that Repubs didn't just show their true feelings, have Rush nominate Romney...

 

[SergeC]

That's what happens when one party's speeches have 0 facts, and the other is actually correct....even if it does take a former impeached president to do it.

God we need more parties. Fast. This system sucks for actual normal citizens.

 

[Jhhnn]

You cannot deny the man can give a good speech... that is his gift. It is also fortunate that his supporters don't care about the reality of the situation but prefer the feeling of well being they get from his speeches.

Clinton's gift is the ability to cut through the bullshit & engagingly lay out the facts in terms that ordinary people can grasp & appreciate.

That's exactly what he did at the DNC. He once offered that when people are *thinking*, that's good for Democrats, and he certainly set the gears to spinning in many people's heads.

Unfortunately, that doesn't work on the brain-dead, the totally propagandized, the delusional or the denialists, at all.

 

[feralkid]

As Republicans we don't have to gush about our candidates as if we were teenagers and they were our first crushes . It's only you Democrats that have to pretend you're still in high school at a pep rally and act like a Tiger Beat fan club. It's an election folks, they're politicians.

You were hurt by a politician as a teen; it's alright to admit it, let the healing begin.

 

[shira]

Peggy Noonan labeled it a "dead cat bounce", but pep rally cheer squads can gush about their fav!

Sorry, I should have included her piece.

http://online.wsj.com/article/declarations.html

You're so chock full of bias that you can't even understand the meaning of your own link. Peggy Noonan was GUESSING what sort of bounce Obama would get.

A guess? Dead-cat bounce. Just like the Republicans got.

But she guessed wrong. Unlike Romney, who Noonan acknowledges got a "dead cat" bounce, Obama got a real bounce.

 

[finglobes]

Dead cat bounce


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_cat_bounce

 

[monovillage]

You're so chock full of bias that you can't even understand the meaning of your own link. Peggy Noonan was GUESSING what sort of bounce Obama would get.


But she guessed wrong. Unlike Romney, who Noonan acknowledges got a "dead cat" bounce, Obama got a real bounce.

Rah, rah, rah lil' cheerleader.

 

[Hammerman]

Obama looked like he knew the jig was up when he was talking....He probably knew already about the lousy jobs report that was coming up in just a few hours and knew he could not emphasize job creation to any great extent. Both conventions were a joke, the dems even had to move it to a smaller venue to fill all the seats. Glad all that cheerleading hoopla crap is over with now.

 

[sportage]

That feeling of well-being you describe is no different than the false hope in Romney/Ryan and their ability to right the wrongs.

Right on. Damn straight.
Like Romney would or ever could create his promised jobs increase while his plan is the exact carbon copy of the GW plan that left us in the mess Obama is trying to clean up.
Anyone believing Romney could or would create one United States based job at all is being foolish.

But I'll say it again when it comes to Obama vs that lovable Bill Clinton...
Bill Clinton also tried to do right by initiating reform in the military with Gay's serving, and he FAILED.
And the Clinton's also tried to reform healthcare, and they FAILED.

President Obama, on the other hand, "succeeded" at doing BOTH.
And THAT should tell you everything you need to know about Obama, his abilities, AND our future during a second Obama presidential term.

If one person could ever turn the economy around for the betterment of all, it will be Obama and only Obama.

Romney and Ryan are the guys full of bull to beware of.
They want NOT to do one single thing to help the economy or create jobs.
THEY (Romney/Ryan) would do exactly what republican governors and the republican house has been doing since 2010, attach social issues.

THAT is their plan. Lie as was done in 2010 about creating jobs jobs jobs to get elected,
and THEN, ignore that and attack social issues at every opportunity.

Only a total fool would fall for that same bull, again....

PS...
However, on one hand, I'd love to see Mittens sent back to his horse ranch with his attached car elevating garage.

But on the other, I would enjoy watching republicans eat crow after unemployment rises to 25% within two years under Romney rule.
And the excuses...OH THE EXCUSES Mittens would have to come up with to explain his 25% national unemployment rate.
I guess in a sadistic way, I'd really like to experience that.

 

[Jhhnn]

Obama looked like he knew the jig was up when he was talking....He probably knew already about the lousy jobs report that was coming up in just a few hours and knew he could not emphasize job creation to any great extent. Both conventions were a joke, the dems even had to move it to a smaller venue to fill all the seats. Glad all that cheerleading hoopla crap is over with now.

Never pass up a chance at negative false attribution, huh?

Activities were moved indoors because of... threatening weather.

Amazing, huh?

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/07/u...-indoors.html?_r=1&nl=us&emc=edit_cn_20120907

 

[Pens1566]

As Republicans we don't have to gush about our candidates as if we were teenagers and they were our first crushes . It's only you Democrats that have to pretend you're still in high school at a pep rally and act like a Tiger Beat fan club. It's an election folks, they're politicians.

Excellent rebuttal. Forgot Palin already, have we?

 

[Gonad the Barbarian]

Never pass up a chance at negative false attribution, huh?

Activities were moved indoors because of... threatening weather.

Amazing, huh?

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/07/u...-indoors.html?_r=1&nl=us&emc=edit_cn_20120907

Likely story. The DNC knew what the weather would be months ago.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qAla8Jxwo4I&feature=player_embedded

 

[Pens1566]

Likely story. The DNC knew what the weather would be months ago.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qAla8Jxwo4I&feature=player_embedded

They had 65k tickets requested for the stadium. Had to turn credentialed people away from all nights of the convention at the 20k+ arena. Compare that to the numerous visible empty seats at the RNC.

 

[MomentsofSanity]

They had 65k tickets requested for the stadium. Had to turn credentialed people away from all nights of the convention at the 20k+ arena. Compare that to the numerous visible empty seats at the RNC.

You can't expect honesty now. i was reading some right wing blogs which referred to the night of Clinton's speech as "half full". There were multiple Fire Marshals on site who finally had to order the doors closed and people out it was so crowded.

 

[Gonad the Barbarian]

They had 65k tickets requested for the stadium. Had to turn credentialed people away from all nights of the convention at the 20k+ arena. Compare that to the numerous visible empty seats at the RNC.

At the RNC empty seats are people my friend.