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The Bounce: Obama's Gallup approval jumps nearly 10% in one week

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Ryan

Lifer
Oct 31, 2000
27,518
1
81
The bounce continues - Gallup's presidential election pole has Obama at 49%, Romney at 45%.
 

Matt1970

Lifer
Mar 19, 2007
12,321
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0
We still have a long way to go. Carter had an almost 10 point lead over Reagan at this point and had an 8 point lead in October.
 

Jhhnn

No Lifer
Nov 11, 1999
61,832
13,980
136
We still have a long way to go. Carter had an almost 10 point lead over Reagan at this point and had an 8 point lead in October.
Heh.

Reagan was a very strong candidate who captured the imagination of the electorate.

Romney? Don't piss down my leg & tell me it's raining, OK?
 

Doppel

Lifer
Feb 5, 2011
13,313
2
0
Yeah Romney is fvcked. I really hope Republicans realize this, the election is highly unlikely to be close; Romney has a very slim chance in hell of winning against Obama.

As I've said from the get go: He's an elitist asshole. This is why people aren't going to vote for him, plus he's not black, and minorities are growing at huge rates (90+% blacks will vote Obama). The Republicans' voters are almost unanimously whites and that approach that used to work won't anymore as minorities grow. Just shows how incredibly idiotic and out of touch Republicans are. What a terrible, terrible nominee. Shamefully poor choice.

Romney's election is over and there's no bright future for the GOP.
 

Jhhnn

No Lifer
Nov 11, 1999
61,832
13,980
136
Yeah Romney is fvcked. I really hope Republicans realize this, the election is highly unlikely to be close; Romney has a very slim chance in hell of winning against Obama.

As I've said from the get go: He's an elitist asshole. This is why people aren't going to vote for him, plus he's not black, and minorities are growing at huge rates (90+% blacks will vote Obama). The Republicans' voters are almost unanimously whites and that approach that used to work won't anymore as minorities grow. Just shows how incredibly idiotic and out of touch Republicans are. What a terrible, terrible nominee. Shamefully poor choice.

Romney's election is over and there's no bright future for the GOP.
Romney is the best they've got, which says a lot about the current state of Republicanism. He and Huntsman looked out of place in the clown car with the rest of the aspirants.
 

Rainsford

Lifer
Apr 25, 2001
17,520
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We still have a long way to go. Carter had an almost 10 point lead over Reagan at this point and had an 8 point lead in October.
It's true, anything can happen in the next 2 months. But Reagan's election is notable because it was a historic reversal in the last few months of the campaign, from being seen as virtually unelectable to winning big. The key word there is "historic" and what made it historic is that that sort of reversal is very unusual. It happened because of some good moves on Reagan's part combined with some very bad news for Carter. Romney and Obama could have a similar situation, but I wouldn't bet on it.

I don't know why Republicans insist that this election is Reagan v Carter 2 aside from wishful thinking. Not only is Obama not really in the position Carter was in, Romney isn't quite the candidate Reagan was.
 

Matt1970

Lifer
Mar 19, 2007
12,321
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It's true, anything can happen in the next 2 months. But Reagan's election is notable because it was a historic reversal in the last few months of the campaign, from being seen as virtually unelectable to winning big. The key word there is "historic" and what made it historic is that that sort of reversal is very unusual. It happened because of some good moves on Reagan's part combined with some very bad news for Carter. Romney and Obama could have a similar situation, but I wouldn't bet on it.

I don't know why Republicans insist that this election is Reagan v Carter 2 aside from wishful thinking. Not only is Obama not really in the position Carter was in, Romney isn't quite the candidate Reagan was.
Reagan's surge in the end was all due to the debates. Reagan basically wiped the floor with Carter. I don't want to make any predictions about the debate at this point.
 

Rainsford

Lifer
Apr 25, 2001
17,520
0
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Reagan's surge in the end was all due to the debates. Reagan basically wiped the floor with Carter. I don't want to make any predictions about the debate at this point.
That's true, the debate was most likely a big contributing factor for Reagan...and could certainly help Romney if he pulls off a great performance.

I still don't really see much in the way of parallels though, at least not enough to consider the election in 1980 a model for either side. The overall economic situation is quite a bit better for Obama than it was for Carter and Obama doesn't have the same foreign policy weakness as Carter (in fact it might even be an advantage for him over Romney). More importantly though, Romney has shown little indication that he has Reagan's likeability or skill at connecting with and inspiring confidence in people.

But like you suggested, predicting what could happen for both sides in the next 60 days is difficult...particularly since there have been surprise upsets in American politics (like Reagan). We'll have to wait and see, I suppose.
 

Throckmorton

Lifer
Aug 23, 2007
16,833
1
0
You cannot deny the man can give a good speech... that is his gift. It is also fortunate that his supporters don't care about the reality of the situation but prefer the feeling of well being they get from his speeches.
LOL

No, his supporters do care about reality, which is why they're still supporting him. You jackasses think we're gullible enough to vote Republican even though Republicans are the reason Obama hasn't gotten everything done that he wanted to? Mitch McConnell even admitted that his main goal was to make Obama a 1 term president.
 

mshan

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2004
7,869
0
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That 538 article said that Reagan got a 30 point convention bounce, so there were apparently hints of his competitiveness:
"Conservatives sometimes cite Ronald Reagan’s win in 1980 as a favorable precedent for Mr. Romney, because the polls showed him in a tight race with Jimmy Carter in October and early November, 1980. Nevertheless, Mr. Reagan had shown much clearer signs of upside potential earlier in the race — most conspicuously, in leading Mr. Carter by nearly 30 points after the Republican convention in Detroit.

Because of demographic changes, the Republican base is probably just a bit too narrow to win the election for Mr. Romney on its own, even with a strong Republican turnout.

Certainly, Mr. Romney will win his fair share of independent voters because of the economy — and if there are substantive signs of economic decline in October and November, probably enough to win him the election.

But unless there is some change of course, it looks increasingly as though he lacks the appeal to the voting blocks that might allow him to win 51 percent of the vote rather than 49 percent."


http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/08/sept-8-conventions-may-put-obama-in-front-runners-position/




Romney has never led in polls, and got a negative convention bounce:





"The Presidential race is largely determined. The national media is correct that this year’s Presidential race is close. And voters are polarized: as few as 1-2% of voters are persuadable.

However, the media have failed to clearly spell out the logical consequence that the Presidential race is also very stable. President Obama has kept an electoral lead every single day since May. Based on the statistical behavior of polls in past re-election races, his November re-elect probability is 88%. Conversely, the probability of unusual movement or a black-swan event is 12%."


http://election.princeton.edu/2012/09/06/general-overview-sept-2012/
 
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Ryan

Lifer
Oct 31, 2000
27,518
1
81
It looks like we might be at the crest of the bump - Gallup's approval rating is now at 50%, but Obama's lead in the election poll grows to a 5% lead over Romney: 49% to 44%.
 

OneOfTheseDays

Diamond Member
Jan 15, 2000
7,052
0
0
This election in NO WAY parallels Reagan-Carter. ANYONE making that comparison is an absolute idiot.

Reagan was a once in a lifetime GOP candidate. He got a ridiculous 20-30 point bounce coming out of his convention. He captured the hearts and minds of the American electorate in a way that very few politicians are capable of.

Romney is no fucking Reagan. Give me a break your morons.
 

shortylickens

No Lifer
Jul 15, 2003
78,647
11,572
126
This election in NO WAY parallels Reagan-Carter. ANYONE making that comparison is an absolute idiot.

Reagan was a once in a lifetime GOP candidate. He got a ridiculous 20-30 point bounce coming out of his convention. He captured the hearts and minds of the American electorate in a way that very few politicians are capable of.

Romney is no fucking Reagan. Give me a break your morons.
Ya alright brah?
 

Jhhnn

No Lifer
Nov 11, 1999
61,832
13,980
136
This election in NO WAY parallels Reagan-Carter. ANYONE making that comparison is an absolute idiot.

Reagan was a once in a lifetime GOP candidate. He got a ridiculous 20-30 point bounce coming out of his convention. He captured the hearts and minds of the American electorate in a way that very few politicians are capable of.

Romney is no fucking Reagan. Give me a break your morons.
Ya alright brah?
He's fine, and he's got it right.

Right or wrong, Reagan inspired confidence & trust. He could sell the equivalent of Arizona oceanfront, and did. He was a professional actor, after all, well versed in the role of body language, facial expression, and rhetorical cadence.

Romney is not that kind of figure. Even the Repub base distrusts him, and will vote for him only because he's not Obama. He inspires so much distrust that people will vote for Obama who otherwise might not.
 

shadow9d9

Diamond Member
Jul 6, 2004
8,133
1
0
Reagan's surge in the end was all due to the debates. Reagan basically wiped the floor with Carter. I don't want to make any predictions about the debate at this point.
You won't predict the debates? Rmoney and his insane vp pick will be annihilated. It is easier to repeat outright lies to their base when no one calls them on it. Gl doing that in a debate environment. Rmoney is more out of touch with reality than Bush was.. and that is truly saying something.
 

Matt1970

Lifer
Mar 19, 2007
12,321
2
0
You won't predict the debates? Rmoney and his insane vp pick will be annihilated. It is easier to repeat outright lies to their base when no one calls them on it. Gl doing that in a debate environment. Rmoney is more out of touch with reality than Bush was.. and that is truly saying something.
I guess we will see.
 

OneOfTheseDays

Diamond Member
Jan 15, 2000
7,052
0
0
I guess we will see.
One has to be astonished at your partisanship and outright refusal to accept reality as it is.

Romney has no chance. His advisors know it, he knows it, his party knows it. The DNC sealed Obama's reelection and barring a complete economic collapse (which isn't going to happen) Obama will cruise to another 4 years. Romney has never actually led Obama in the polls by any sizable margin for any extended period of time.

Debates won't be a turning point for Romney because he's just not that good at them and Obama is actually very skilled at them. There is no advantage for Romney here, especially now that he'll have to explain his myriad of positions on every issue. Only a fool like you would actually believe the debates are going to change the makeup of this race in Romney's favor. If anything, it will push that last bit of undecideds into Obama's camp.

Obama is America's president. They are comfortable seeing him there and sure as shit aren't going to replace him with a pathetic candidate like Mitt Romney. If we as a nation wouldn't replace GWB with Kerry there is no chance in hell we're going to do that with Romney here.
 

mshan

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2004
7,869
0
71
Was scanning Red State website and they mentioned this link:
"Where the two camps differ — and differ starkly — is on their theories of the case for navigating the final nine weeks. Romney, armed with more dismal jobs numbers, will run a one-size-fits-all campaign, wrapped around the message that the economy is bad, Obama is to blame and that change of leadership is absolutely essential. The Republican plan rests heavily on Romney’s capacity to bury Obama with negative ads — and reap the benefits of his billionaire backers hitting the president even harder, and more relentlessly. This, more than anything else, alarms the high command in Chicago.

A Democratic official said the other big worry for the Obama campaign is that when you dig into the small slice of undecided voters (probably only 6 percent to 8 percent of the electorate, according to the campaigns), the demographics are not favorable to Obama: mostly white, many with some college education, economically stressed, largely middle-aged. (see below; looks like unemployment rate for this block of voters may have dropped last month, despite "dismal" headlines being pushed by MSM: http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea05.htm)

“Many of them voted for Obama in 2008 and felt good about that vote, and still think Obama’s a good person who really tried hard, but the economy sucks for them,” said the Democratic official, who has access to reams of internal polls and focus groups.

Despite that, Obama officials have maintained for several weeks that there are too few undecided voters for Romney to get the bounce he needs from the debates. “Romney is not going to win undecided voters 4-to-1,” a senior administration official told reporters on Air Force One on Friday. “If you are losing in Ohio by 4 or 5 points and trailing in Colorado by 2 points, if you are trailing in Nevada by 2 or 3 points, you are not going to win in those states.

“There is a small number of undecided voters so you are not going to see tremendous movement out of these conventions, even out of the debates. … [W]e have a small but important lead in battleground states that is a huge problem for the Romney camp. … Ohio needs to be tied, Florida needs to be tied at least.”


http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0912/80949.html#ixzz262QZBnx7/






August Monthly Jobs Report (BLS):

- Some College or Associate's Degree: 7.1% (July) --> 6.6% (August)

- Less than High School: 12.7 (July)--> 12% (August)

- High School, No College: has been trending up from April (7.9%) --> May (8.1%) --> June (8.4%) --> July (8.7) --> August (8.8%)


http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea05.htm
 
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Wreckem

Diamond Member
Sep 23, 2006
9,267
690
126
I guess we will see.
Obama is going to make a fool out of Romney. Ryan will make a fool out of Biden. There are 3(IIRC) Presidential Debates and 1 VP Debate. The debates aren't going to get Romney a win. Not to mention his VP pick shored up his based but it alienated undecided independent voters. Romney needs a miracle to win.
 
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Jhhnn

No Lifer
Nov 11, 1999
61,832
13,980
136
Obama is going to make a fool out of Romney. Ryan will make a fool out of Biden. There are 3(IIRC) Presidential Debates and 1 VP Debate. The debates aren't going to get Romney a win. Not to mention his VP pick shored up his based but it alienated undecided independent voters. Romney needs a miracle to win.
I wouldn't count Biden out.

Ryan manages to look good to some by controlling the message & directing the conversation in staged venues. He won't have that.
 

mshan

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2004
7,869
0
71
Princeton Election Consortium's Meta-Margin just jumped from 1.96% yesterday to 2.68% today:
"The state poll Meta-analysis. The first step in our Presidential analysis is to use state polls to provide a snapshot of conditions today. As in past years, I use outlier-resistant medians to generate a probabilistic calculation using Electoral College mechanisms. The result is two outputs: an electoral vote median with a 95% confidence band, and a Meta-margin. They are updated every day at 8AM, noon, 5PM, and 8PM.

On Election Eve, the EV estimator lands on the final election outcome within approximately +/-5 EV. So the snapshot (in the top line of this site) tells us where the race is at any given moment with very high accuracy.

The Meta-margin is very special. It tells us how far the race would have to shift to create a electoral near-tie. It is like the standard national-poll margin you see in the news, with two differences: (1) It is in the units that matter, the Electoral College, and therefore closely reflects swing state movement. (2) It is more accurate than any poll aggregation you will find elsewhere. Its typical precision is +/- 0.2%. By this measure, today Obama leads Romney by 2.0%." (9/6/2012)


http://election.princeton.edu/2012/09/06/general-overview-sept-2012/




edit: PEC's new commentary up: http://election.princeton.edu/2012/09/10/the-post-democratic-convention-bounce-begins/#more-5243 (if I had to guess, combination of RNC and DNC has taken Florida from true toss up to lean / slight lean Obama (?)
 
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kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
17,777
8,755
136
Mittens is toast, and he hasn't even been pummeled by Obama in the debates yet.

Not that I expect Romney voters to acknowledge the impending beat down when it happens. If they could watch Bush in 2004 get the red headed step-child treatment to such a degree and maintain their composure, then it will be easier with Romney who is obviously a great deal smarter and more informed than Bush.
 

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