Originally posted by: Jhhnn
The beauty of forum discussions, Blackangst1, is that whatever anybody had to say is still there- no matter how much they'd like to disown it. Which is precisely what you're attempting.
first, you offer this-
er...I have never contended that he didnt lead a posh life. Or that he didnt ignore things you and I think about. Hell, John Kerry does the same thing. My contention is that his policies have nothing to do with the price at the pumps.
His policies have nothing to do with the price at the pumps....
I point out just how his policies affect the price, by creating instability and uncertainty, and by creating a dollar surplus via debt, adversely afecting our trading partners in oil. Obviously, I'm getting a little too close to the truth, threatening your sense of well-being achieved thru denial, because you then bluster abusively-
As I've said before, I havent said anything about stability in the ME, nor have I eluded that the stability we're seeing DOESNT contribute to the price of oil. I think, to some extent, it does. But there is certainly more going on other than the war that would affect oil prices. Of course Im assuming the war is what you mean by instability in the ME, but thats an assumption. And certainly the Bush administration doesnt affect all the bullshit going on there. As I've asked in other threads about oil, what specific policy or bill has contributed directly to the price of oil? NONE. The ME factor is indirect. Hell, I can indirectly place blame on Bush for the fact my wife blew out a tire in a pothole if I wanted. Im talking about specifics. There arent any that Im aware of.
Are you? When did I ever mention instability in the middle east? Are you trying to put words in my mouth? And how the fuck would you assume I DONT think it has to do with the price of oil based on what I said? I was clearly and specifically talking about Bush and the price of oil Keep up there kiddo.
Deficits? Notthing to do with it. The "currency of oil"? WTF are you talking about? Oil is a commodity. Read up kiddo. Reserves in oil producing states? I never said it didnt contribute to oil prices, now did I imply it. Quit putting words in my mouth. Youre as bad as Dave.
Who causes instability with unjustified pre-emptive war, half-assed occupations, and threats of more pre-emptive military action towards others in the region? the tooth fairy, or GWB?
Simply an opinion. Dont pass it on as fact.
And, if you really think that huge deficits have nothing to do with the value of the dollar, you're truly delusional- need I remind you that deficits don't just happen, whoops!, but are conscious policy decisions, signed into law by the chief executive himself? Or that trade policies allowing huge balance of payment deficits are conscious policy decisions, as well?
when did I mention value of the dollar in relation to deficits?? I didnt. Maybe I wasnt clear when I posted that, but I was referring to oil prices. My statement is true in that regard, and the rest of your statement is therefore an invalid hot air rant.
And, when I return to the actual topic at hand (read the thread title, just in case you're truly lost) you again go to the obtuse mode-
WTF does the Fed have to do with commodities? Oh I guess we switched gears. I guess I'll answer your questions, although Im not sure why youre asking...
*Do you somehow imagine that the Fed could maintain giveaway rates w/o approval from the Whitehouse, or that various financial entities could skirt the rules w/o a blind eye from neutered executive branch regulators? No.
*That expansive exploitation of existing methods and creation of new ones could occur w/o tacit acquiescence? No.
*That the current coverup wrt near insolvency iin banking could occur w/o the same? Not sure what coverup youre talking about, so I cant answer this.
I ask, because that's the topic... and you basically agreed with me, yet, I'm sure, maintain the idea that the mentioned policy decisions from the executive branch had no effect on the current situation whatsoever, right?
Never said that. And of course I agree with you on some points. If people would quit nitpicking we would probably find ALL of us (well, except Dave) agree on more things than not. But I digress.
Sometimes we have to abandon our preconceived notions to look a little deeper, find the true relationships of cause and effect.
I hope you looked in the mirror when you posted that.
Watch how this real estate/ bank liquidity crisis shakes out. If the Fed and the executive branch just sit back and let the whole thing unfold in that natural "free market" way, both overextended homebuyers and their overextended creditors will mostly go under. That's the worst case scenario, and both the executive and the fed will do their damndest to prevent that.
I agree 100%
Despite pious utterances to the contrary, very little will be done to extend a bailout beyond the banks to financially strapped homeowners, and real estate prices will continue to slide. Investors will continue to be wary of real estate paper, rightfully so, thus contributing to the decline. Homeowners who successfully refinance their ARMS into conventional notes will become locked into their dwelling for many years to come because they'll have negative equity. Many of them will just fold later than sooner, when some financial crisis forces them over the edge. People who have large cash downpayments and solid credit will find excellent bargains down the road, because a speculative market never regains equilibrium until it falls past that equilibrium point and climbs back up to it... that has to happen to re-establish confidence and investment.
OK I agree for the most part.
Current efforts are merely intended to extend and soften the decline, particularly wrt the banking community. Incrementally smaller losses over longer timeframes help them survive, but really don't change the situation wrt homebuyers who are likely to go under- they just get to stay on the treadmill a little longer... as losses are transferred from the banks to the FHA and other federally insured entities, externalizing the costs of failure onto the taxpayers.
Agree again.
The Japanese real estate market went through something very similar in the early 90's, driving their economy into the doldrums for over a decade. There's little reason to think it'll play out much differently in this country, if it plays out that well...
It will, and it may or may not be harder or softer or shorter or longer. Who cares? Its a cycle and a correction. It will take as long as it takes. *shrug* I can find opinions on both ends of the argument as far as predictions go, all with very detailed analysis. So can you. If you and I agree with different ones, who is right? We dont know do we. It's OPINION. No one can predict the future. Right? And something to keep in mind is just because a majority believes something doesnt make it true. If you disagree with THAT, be prepared to be peppered with dozens of examples.