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Thanks Obama! Unemployment trend he started continues down to 3.6%

glenn1

Lifer
Sep 6, 2000
25,388
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This is not a political statement meant to reflect on either Obama or Trump, but I wonder how much demographics play into the numbers above? Baby boomer retirements should be ramping up due to age and remember quite a few folks delayed retirement due to the Great Recession. Today's unemployment rate may be demonstrating the effects of more folks in retirement/out of the active workforce and thus not counting towards the 3.6% figure.
 
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zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
99,994
13,966
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This is not a political statement meant to reflect on either Obama or Trump, but I wonder how much demographics play into the numbers above? Baby boomer retirements should be ramping up due to age and remember quite a few folks delayed retirement due to the Great Recession. Today's unemployment rate may be demonstrating the effects of more folks in retirement/out of the active workforce and thus not counting towards the 3.6% figure.
Uh, aren't retirees always excluded from unemployment figures? Sure, it may be that there are more out-of-work people overall compared to previous generations, because of all the boomers, but just pointing to that now doesn't really make for a compelling argument as to why we should look at the same metric differently, for this specific situation.
 

[DHT]Osiris

Diamond Member
Dec 15, 2015
7,081
2,843
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This is not a political statement meant to reflect on either Obama or Trump, but I wonder how much demographics play into the numbers above? Baby boomer retirements should be ramping up due to age and remember quite a few folks delayed retirement due to the Great Recession. Today's unemployment rate may be demonstrating the effects of more folks in retirement/out of the active workforce and thus not counting towards the 3.6% figure.
Assuming static numbers (nobody hired or fired), people leaving the workforce via retirement would drive up the unemployment percentages, as the percentage of people out of work would increase compared to the number of people in the workforce.

Now, realistically, that's not the case. What's far more probable is that the economy is doing 'okay' for business owners, so they're hiring more compared to a few years ago. It's also possible (but I'm ignorant to this topic) that there's changes to rules regarding how people are counted for 'employed' 'not employed' or 'not seeking'. It's also possible the gig economy has ramped up quite a bit, and now there's people technically considered 'working' even if they're at below minimum wage levels.
 

glenn1

Lifer
Sep 6, 2000
25,388
1,010
126
Uh, aren't retirees always excluded from unemployment figures? Sure, it may be that there are more out-of-work people overall compared to previous generations, because of all the boomers, but just pointing to that now doesn't really make for a compelling argument as to why we should look at the same metric differently, for this specific situation.
Don't think it's a matter of "looking at it differently" or trying to give/deny credit to anyone but was rather just a hypothesis about one reason the trend seems to be going the way it is. I'll freely admit my thinking could be completely wrong and perhaps exactly opposite of reality but I was just sort of thinking aloud.
 

pete6032

Diamond Member
Dec 3, 2010
4,344
421
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Don't think it's a matter of "looking at it differently" or trying to give/deny credit to anyone but was rather just a hypothesis about one reason the trend seems to be going the way it is. I'll freely admit my thinking could be completely wrong and perhaps exactly opposite of reality but I was just sort of thinking aloud.
Retired people are not counted in the unemployment rate. The only people counted in the employment rate are people who are a) working or b) want to work and have actively looked for work in the last 4 weeks.

You may be thinking about labor force participation rate.
 
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KillerBee

Golden Member
Jul 2, 2010
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This thread title is hilarious - good job Giving it a thumbs up!

Oh wait, this isn't the 'P&Ns middle name' thread and OP actual believes this? That's even funnier :D
 

HomerJS

Lifer
Feb 6, 2002
21,778
6,393
136
This thread title is hilarious - good job Giving it a thumbs up!

Oh wait, this isn't the 'P&Ns middle name' thread and OP actual believes this? That's even funnier :D
Don't take my word for it, look at the chart. When did the trajectory change under Trump?
 
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thilanliyan

Lifer
Jun 21, 2005
10,803
737
126
Don't take my word for it, look at the chart. When did the trajectory change under Trump?
Well, Trump has been pre-ordained for the presidency since his conception so he's responsible for all jobs created in the last 72 yrs and 9 months.
 
Jan 25, 2011
15,481
6,456
146
This thread title is hilarious - good job Giving it a thumbs up!

Oh wait, this isn't the 'P&Ns middle name' thread and OP actual believes this? That's even funnier :D
While the title is tongue in cheek the underlying principle is true. The unemployment rates have been on a steady trajectory for years. They have neither accelerated or decelerated under Trump.
 

Vic

Elite Member
Jun 12, 2001
46,318
5,663
126

Vic

Elite Member
Jun 12, 2001
46,318
5,663
126
While the title is tongue in cheek the underlying principle is true. The unemployment rates have been on a steady trajectory for years. They have neither accelerated or decelerated under Trump.
The "weak" GDP growth rate hasn't changed either. Still trending in the same range as during Obama.
 

Vic

Elite Member
Jun 12, 2001
46,318
5,663
126
Not to mention completely ignoring what he did to the unemployment rate back around 2000!
I still remember when Obama let terrorists attack us on 9/11 while he was President! Traitor!
#neverforget
 

Indus

Diamond Member
May 11, 2002
6,272
1,867
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The numbers are full of shit!


The numbers are made up by the politicians for the politicians so that they can look good.
 

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