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Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy

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JackSpadesSI

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I'm trying to make a point about the "Texas sharpshooter fallacy" to someone by using visual aids. My thought was to tell them that I could perform a feat, before their very eyes, with the odds of 1 in *insert crazy number here*. I would then pull out a deck of cards, shuffle them well, and then lay them out on a table in a straight line (it wouldn't matter to me, in the slightest, in what order the cards wound up being laid down).

I'd then let them know that the odds of laying out that EXACT sequence was truly 1 in *that same crazy number*. Clearly unimpressed at this point, I'd then remind them that's why this is a fallacy - you can't take an event which has already happened and marvel at its supposedly incredible odds when that event was never specifically predicted in the first place.

Anyway, I'm posting here because I'm having a brain fart and I wanted to check my math with you. Am I right that these are the odds for a specific sequence of cards?

(1/52)*(1/51)*(1/50)*...*(1/3)*(1/2)*(1/1)

I get 1 in 8*10^67 for that. Is that right?
 
Just wondering as Parade Magazine is widely read as it is included in the local newspapers throughout the country. Anyways, because of Sunday's vos Savant post, people may be more sav vy regarding your proposed demonstration.


PS: 52! = 8.0658175170943878571660636856404e+67
using Windows built in scientific calculator
 
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C1 said:
Just wondering as Parade Magazine is widely read as it is included in the local newspapers throughout the country. Anyways, because of Sunday's vos Savant post, people may be more sav vy regarding your proposed demonstration.
Click to expand...

The point of this isn't the "trick" but rather understanding the fallacy. I don't care how that's achieved.

On a side note, though, the people I plan to bring this up with aren't savvy of much at all. That's sort of the reason why a demonstration is necessary in the first place.
 
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