Texas a swing state?

[Wreckem]

Originally posted by: M0RPH

Originally posted by: Wreckem

Alot of Dems in TX blame the Clintons for the massive losses they suffered from 1994-2004. The Clintons wrote TX off.

And yet still more Texas Dems voted for Clinton than Obama.

And the TX Super Delegates are split pretty close to 50/50. She won by 98,000 votes, a little over 3%. Im just stating the facts, alot of Dems in TX dont like the Clintons.

They fault the Clintons for thier massive losses in the state from 1994 onward.

 

[RightIsWrong]

Originally posted by: M0RPH

Originally posted by: Wreckem

Alot of Dems in TX blame the Clintons for the massive losses they suffered from 1994-2004. The Clintons wrote TX off.

And yet still more Texas Dems voted for Clinton than Obama.

How do you know that? In TX, you can vote for anyone in the primaries regardless of party affiliation. Obama could have given her a huge beat down within the registered democratic voters but the republican voters (which is the districts where she was strongest by the way) want to have her instead because she is more beatable.

It's too bad that they don't break out how many registered republicans voted for each candidate.

 

[M0RPH]

Originally posted by: Wreckem
If you can get 3000 people packed into a caucus from 7:15 and until 2am(there was atleast one precient in Harris County that had that happen), the odds are you might just be able to mobilize your base extremely well.

Those relatively small groups of motivated voters don't mean so much in a general election when the voting pool is MUCH larger. If Obama is the candidate, Democrats are going to find out the hard way that his strong primary performance will not necessarily translate to the general election.

 

[Wreckem]

Originally posted by: M0RPH

Originally posted by: Wreckem
If you can get 3000 people packed into a caucus from 7:15 and until 2am(there was atleast one precient in Harris County that had that happen), the odds are you might just be able to mobilize your base extremely well.

Those relatively small groups of motivated voters don't mean so much in a general election when the voting pool is MUCH larger. If Obama is the candidate, Democrats are going to find out the hard way that his strong primary performance will not necessarily translate to the general election.

And if Clinton gets the nomination, there will be record low black turnout.

 

[RY62]

Originally posted by: RightIsWrong

Originally posted by: M0RPH

Originally posted by: Wreckem

Alot of Dems in TX blame the Clintons for the massive losses they suffered from 1994-2004. The Clintons wrote TX off.

And yet still more Texas Dems voted for Clinton than Obama.

How do you know that? In TX, you can vote for anyone in the primaries regardless of party affiliation. Obama could have given her a huge beat down within the registered democratic voters but the republican voters (which is the districts where she was strongest by the way) want to have her instead because she is more beatable.

It's too bad that they don't break out how many registered republicans voted for each candidate.

They told the stats on this on CNN and FOX, both said that 9% of the total voters in the Dem primary were Republicans. Of that 9% the majority voted for Obama. I can't remember the breakdown but I think it was something like 60/40. Take away all of the Republicans and she won by a larger number. Take away just the Republicans that voted for her and she would have lost. Spin it whichever way suits you.

 

[RY62]

Originally posted by: Wreckem

Originally posted by: M0RPH

Originally posted by: Wreckem
If you can get 3000 people packed into a caucus from 7:15 and until 2am(there was atleast one precient in Harris County that had that happen), the odds are you might just be able to mobilize your base extremely well.

Those relatively small groups of motivated voters don't mean so much in a general election when the voting pool is MUCH larger. If Obama is the candidate, Democrats are going to find out the hard way that his strong primary performance will not necessarily translate to the general election.

And if Clinton gets the nomination, there will be record low black turnout.

Actually, I think that is completely dependant on how she would get the nomination. If it were today, and Obama felt cheated by backroom deals, I would agree. There is still plenty of time for things to change before the convention. If things change enough for her to actually get the nomination, I would guess that even Obama would be asking the party to unite behind her. Call me optomistic but I still think it'll work itself out where the majority will be ok with it (and her ).