Tesla Motors death watch

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Staples

Diamond Member
Oct 28, 2001
4,952
119
106
I don't know how much longer Tesla can stay shut down without going under and CA is definitely going to be the last state to reopen.
You'd think CA would be the last to open but I don't think it will be far behind everyone else. Basically the counties can set the limits. A few rural counties are open for business. Statewide, a few things that were not allowed to operate a month ago are now back in business. Nothing totally significant yet but work offices will soon be able to open for those who can't work from home (that probably means Tesla too).
 

manly

Lifer
Jan 25, 2000
10,907
2,057
126
I don't know how much longer Tesla can stay shut down without going under and CA is definitely going to be the last state to reopen.
They raised capital at the perfect time in January, and have enough financial cushion to get through the short term. Obviously they're hurting because they have just two global production plants, but I don't think insolvency is a concern. Having said that, I did opine a long time ago that once a recession hits, Tesla YoY sales growth will evaporate. But on their current trajectory, they should still be profitable if they wind up selling over 400k autos this year, and sufficiently belt-tighten. I'd be astounded if they wind up anywhere close to 500k unit sales, as previously projected.
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,509
5,159
136
They raised capital at the perfect time in January, and have enough financial cushion to get through the short term. Obviously they're hurting because they have just two global production plants, but I don't think insolvency is a concern. Having said that, I did opine a long time ago that once a recession hits, Tesla YoY sales growth will evaporate. But on their current trajectory, they should still be profitable if they wind up selling over 400k autos this year, and sufficiently belt-tighten. I'd be astounded if they wind up anywhere close to 500k unit sales, as previously projected.

They needed that $2B to not go bankrupt... in a world where they were still making and selling cars. And since they aren't making any cars they can't even sell to areas of the country that do reopen.
 

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,689
2,811
126
They needed that $2B to not go bankrupt... in a world where they were still making and selling cars. And since they aren't making any cars they can't even sell to areas of the country that do reopen.
TSLA is going bankrupt. Right... That's why they're currently worth $150 billion. Because Wall Street totally thinks they're going bankrupt. The morons here in this thread and at ATOT never cease to amaze me.
 

OccamsToothbrush

Golden Member
Aug 21, 2005
1,389
825
136
TSLA is going bankrupt. Right... That's why they're currently worth $150 billion. Because Wall Street totally thinks they're going bankrupt. The morons here in this thread and at ATOT never cease to amaze me.

Wall Street is the morons, they create a bubble, cash in and then abandon smaller investors when they can't prop up a failing stock anymore. Oh, wait, they're not the morons, it's the people who believe that Wall Street is interested in anything other than short term profits who are morons.

Bearn Streans went from $50 billion to almost zero in a year, Enron $70 billion to near zero in 22 months and WorldCom went from $175 billion to zero although they didn't manage to do it as quickly as Enron. Wall Street doesn't give a rats ass if Tesla is going bankrupt, they'll be out before anyone else and it's good for them to make you think the company is a slam dunk even if Wall Street knows they're destined to crater.

2019 was Tesla's best year ever. Did they make money? Did they break even? No? Then they're not too big to fail and that $150 billion market cap means nothing.
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,509
5,159
136
TSLA is going bankrupt. Right... That's why they're currently worth $150 billion. Because Wall Street totally thinks they're going bankrupt. The morons here in this thread and at ATOT never cease to amaze me.

Tesla is the poster child for the current insanity of the stock market.
 

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,689
2,811
126
Tesla is the poster child for the current insanity of the stock market.
You sound like OP. For 7 years and counting, OP was totally wrong. Anyone who listened to him/her would be bankrupt and living on the street now. My guess is you're also going to be totally wrong. You'll still be screaming insanity when TSLA shares are worth $3,500 /shr.
 

manly

Lifer
Jan 25, 2000
10,907
2,057
126
They needed that $2B to not go bankrupt... in a world where they were still making and selling cars. And since they aren't making any cars they can't even sell to areas of the country that do reopen.
Although they have a lot of LT debt, they had something like $8B cash on hand a couple months ago. I don't know what their cash burn rate is, but they're not going bankrupt unless economic conditions drastically deteriorate.
Wall Street is the morons, they create a bubble, cash in and then abandon smaller investors when they can't prop up a failing stock anymore. Oh, wait, they're not the morons, it's the people who believe that Wall Street is interested in anything other than short term profits who are morons.

Bearn Streans went from $50 billion to almost zero in a year, Enron $70 billion to near zero in 22 months and WorldCom went from $175 billion to zero although they didn't manage to do it as quickly as Enron. Wall Street doesn't give a rats ass if Tesla is going bankrupt, they'll be out before anyone else and it's good for them to make you think the company is a slam dunk even if Wall Street knows they're destined to crater.

2019 was Tesla's best year ever. Did they make money? Did they break even? No? Then they're not too big to fail and that $150 billion market cap means nothing.
They did turn a net profit last year, although keep in mind some of that is from selling carbon credits. You can call me a Tesla bear, but at this point it seems unfair to compare them to Bear Stearns or Enron. I agree the market cap is absurd, and bakes in perfect execution for years.
 

OccamsToothbrush

Golden Member
Aug 21, 2005
1,389
825
136
I agree the market cap is absurd, and bakes in perfect execution for years.

It requires a hell of a lot more than perfect execution, it requires things outside of Tesla's control going Tesla's way too. Making cars is easy and Tesla isn't all that good at it. The entire Tesla bubble is built on having superior battery tech FOR NOW. A whole lot of very big companies with huge resources and smart engineers are all in on battery development and it's not hard to see how that could end. Is Tesla like Microsoft, capable of leveraging their lead into long term financial success or are they like Yahoo!, looking like they have things sewn up only to watch Google do something better and seize control of the segment?

What happens if a better car builder like Toyota, Honda or VW makes a breakthrough and narrows the battery gap? That's all Tesla has going for it and it can disappear completely within a year.
 
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ultimatebob

Lifer
Jul 1, 2001
25,135
2,445
126
You sound like OP. For 7 years and counting, OP was totally wrong. Anyone who listened to him/her would be bankrupt and living on the street now. My guess is you're also going to be totally wrong. You'll still be screaming insanity when TSLA shares are worth $3,500 /shr.

I think that Tesla is actually going to have to become profitable before it can get above $1,500 a share. That said, I'm amazed at the valuations that it can pull off just on growth hype alone... even .com stocks in the late 1990's would have trouble hitting these valuation multiples just on growth projections alone.
 

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,689
2,811
126
I think that Tesla is actually going to have to become profitable before it can get above $1,500 a share. That said, I'm amazed at the valuations that it can pull off just on growth hype alone... even .com stocks in the late 1990's would have trouble hitting these valuation multiples just on growth projections alone.
Have you done any back of the napkin growth projection math on TSLA? Or are you one of those retards that buys stuff without doing any homework?
 
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ultimatebob

Lifer
Jul 1, 2001
25,135
2,445
126
Have you done any back of the napkin growth projection math on TSLA? Or are you one of those retards that buys stuff without doing any homework?

Honestly, I don't really expect huge growth from Tesla until they can get a long range electric car that's cost competitive with an ICE model. They're getting there, but I think that they're going to continue to be a niche luxury brand until they get the prices down.

Sub $2 a gallon gas isn't really helping the cause, either.
 

Ajay

Lifer
Jan 8, 2001
15,332
7,792
136
Honestly, I don't really expect huge growth from Tesla until they can get a long range electric car that's cost competitive with an ICE model. They're getting there, but I think that they're going to continue to be a niche luxury brand until they get the prices down.

Sub $2 a gallon gas isn't really helping the cause, either.
Well, from the tear downs I've seen on the YouTube, Tesla needs to become much better at making cars b/4 they'll be ready for mass market. They overbuild their cars and use too many steps/parts compared to top quality brands like Toyota.
 

Brovane

Diamond Member
Dec 18, 2001
5,271
1,441
136
Well, from the tear downs I've seen on the YouTube, Tesla needs to become much better at making cars b/4 they'll be ready for mass market. They overbuild their cars and use too many steps/parts compared to top quality brands like Toyota.

You might want to watch the latest teardown the Munro did on the Model Y. He commented a lot on how much Tesla had improved with the Model Y as compared to the 3.
 

manly

Lifer
Jan 25, 2000
10,907
2,057
126
I think that Tesla is actually going to have to become profitable before it can get above $1,500 a share. That said, I'm amazed at the valuations that it can pull off just on growth hype alone... even .com stocks in the late 1990's would have trouble hitting these valuation multiples just on growth projections alone.
(Read my posts throughout the years, it's fair to say I'm a TSLA bear, but am rooting for the company to be successful.) Tesla isn't about growth hype, they made a net profit for 2019 and were FCF positive for the calendar year. In a healthy economy, they can make a good profit margin selling cars for $50k a pop (their ASP is probably higher but I'm somewhat ignoring the S/X vehicles due to age and low volume). In contrast, 1990s .com companies had an infinite or negative P/E ratio. Regardless of what ultimately happens to Tesla, it's no small feat that they built a sustainable U.S. auto company from scratch, and helped accelerate the timeline for switching from ICE to BEV. Now that doesn't justify the market cap, but bulls envision a scenario where they take over the world and multiple legacy automakers disappear.

Strategically, they do appear to be well-positioned with a shipping CUV that should sell reasonably well (despite a recession), and a light truck in development that potentially has no rivals anytime soon. Personally, Cybertruck is butt ugly with a silly name, but it is priced to dominate its product class. Of course it remains to be seen if typical pickup truck owners will trade in their Fords and Chevys for a Cybertruck.

2020 is likely to be a soft year for Tesla with modest YoY unit sales growth, but they're still in a good position to grow sales. It's hard to say what the economy looks like during or after recovery, but there are legacy automakers that are in way worse shape than Tesla.
 

ondma

Platinum Member
Mar 18, 2018
2,718
1,278
136
(Read my posts throughout the years, it's fair to say I'm a TSLA bear, but am rooting for the company to be successful.) Tesla isn't about growth hype, they made a net profit for 2019 and were FCF positive for the calendar year. In a healthy economy, they can make a good profit margin selling cars for $50k a pop (their ASP is probably higher but I'm somewhat ignoring the S/X vehicles due to age and low volume). In contrast, 1990s .com companies had an infinite or negative P/E ratio. Regardless of what ultimately happens to Tesla, it's no small feat that they built a sustainable U.S. auto company from scratch, and helped accelerate the timeline for switching from ICE to BEV. Now that doesn't justify the market cap, but bulls envision a scenario where they take over the world and multiple legacy automakers disappear.

Strategically, they do appear to be well-positioned with a shipping CUV that should sell reasonably well (despite a recession), and a light truck in development that potentially has no rivals anytime soon. Personally, Cybertruck is butt ugly with a silly name, but it is priced to dominate its product class. Of course it remains to be seen if typical pickup truck owners will trade in their Fords and Chevys for a Cybertruck.

2020 is likely to be a soft year for Tesla with modest YoY unit sales growth, but they're still in a good position to grow sales. It's hard to say what the economy looks like during or after recovery, but there are legacy automakers that are in way worse shape than Tesla.
Lets face it, Tesla was already far out of reach price wise for the people most hurt by the Corona pandemic and the subsequent recession. So they could actually be less hurt by the recession than some of the more mainstream makers.
 

ultimatebob

Lifer
Jul 1, 2001
25,135
2,445
126
Lets face it, Tesla was already far out of reach price wise for the people most hurt by the Corona pandemic and the subsequent recession. So they could actually be less hurt by the recession than some of the more mainstream makers.

Yeah... realistically speaking, there aren't many families out there with an annual income of less than $100,000 a year that could afford a Model 3 or a Model Y. Even if they could afford the car payments, the high insurance costs would be a deal breaker.