Tegra revenue down 48% Y/Y

[NTMBK]

http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix...wJlNRREVTQz1TRUNUSU9OX0VOVElSRSZzdWJzaWQ9NTc=

In one year Tegra revenue has fallen from $764m to $398m. How much longer can Nvidia keep propping up this failing business?

 

[sontin]

And next year their revenue will be up 50%.

 

[AtenRa]

They will have K1 in 2014, they should have an increase in Tegra revenue this year.

 

[krumme]

http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix...wJlNRREVTQz1TRUNUSU9OX0VOVElSRSZzdWJzaWQ9NTc=

In one year Tegra revenue has fallen from $764m to $398m. How much longer can Nvidia keep propping up this failing business?

They need to be there. What is the alternative?

The alternative is staying in x86 competing with Intel without x86 rights. Its hopeless in the long run.

 

[krumme]

And next year their revenue will be up 50%.

From 400M?
It needs to be 200% within the next 1½ year with Denver from this Q. Denver should really kick off h1 2015 big time.

 

[sontin]

From 400M?
It needs to be 200% within the next 1½ year with Denver from this Q.

It will be up easily with Tegra K1v1, Tegra K1v2 Tegra 4, Tegra 4i (+LTE modem) and automotive.

 

[teejee]

And next year their revenue will be up 50%.

you understand that -48% and then +50% is huge decline?
It is decline of 22% from last year to next year...

 

[krumme]

It will be up easily with Tegra K1v1, Tegra K1v2 Tegra 4, Tegra 4i (+LTE modem) and automotive.

But where is the huge important wins for K1?

Agree automotive is very interesting. But having an Arm business running is expensive. At some time, some of it needs to earn some profit. Their professional business can not continue for ever to finance it.

The problem is it looks like QQ is always constantly ½-1 year in advance to the rest. And it goes for everything on the soc. Take the dsp as an example.

 

[sontin]

But where is the huge important wins for K1?

If there is someone it will be announced over the next months.

Agree automotive is very interesting. But having an Arm business running is expensive. At some time, some of it needs to earn some profit. Their professional business can not continue for ever to finance it.

It's an investment. On the other hand with the integration of their core GPU technology the R&D cost will come down.

 

[NTMBK]

It will be up easily with Tegra K1v1, Tegra K1v2 Tegra 4, Tegra 4i (+LTE modem) and automotive.

When do you realistically expect the Denver K1 to arrive? Either NVidia pushes both of them out in the same year, Osborne's the cortex A15 version of the K1 and completely tanks its sales; or it comes out in 2015, meaning that it will be a 28nm SoC up against 20nm SoCs. The K1v1 does have some promise, though- they're finally putting a modern unified shader GPU into Tegra. Should be interesting to see how it does.

The Tegra 4 is dead weight. The fact that it crashed the revenues by 48% should tell you just how well that is doing in the market.

And the 4i is just a joke at this point. Launching a Cortex A9 product in mid 2014, with a modem that doesn't even work in NVidia's biggest market? Have fun competing against the sea of commodity Mediatek and Rockchip parts that flood China, which are using more modern ARM cores.

I hope revenue will rebound a bit, after such a catastrophe this year. But enough to be profitable? I doubt it.

 

[NTMBK]

If there is someone it will be announced over the next months.

When Tegra 3 launched, they announced on launch day that it would be going into Asus tablets. http://www.anandtech.com/show/5072/nvidias-tegra-3-launched-architecture-revealed/3 When they announced Tegra 4 and 4i, all that they had was reference designs. Tegra 3 actually sold a decent number of chips (even if not enough to be profitable), while Tegra 4 tanked the revenue and Tegra 4i is completely MIA. And now the Tegra K1 launched with only reference models on display. Make of that what you will.

 

[StrangerGuy]

No surprise when the Xiaomi Mi3 phone proves T4 version is no better than the S800 and the latter chip have integrated LTE and much better economics of scale.

 

[sontin]

When Tegra 3 launched, they announced on launch day that it would be going into Asus tablets. http://www.anandtech.com/show/5072/nvidias-tegra-3-launched-architecture-revealed/3 When they announced Tegra 4 and 4i, all that they had was reference designs. Tegra 3 actually sold a decent number of chips (even if not enough to be profitable), while Tegra 4 tanked the revenue and Tegra 4i is completely MIA. And now the Tegra K1 launched with only reference models on display. Make of that what you will.

Tegra 3 (Kal-El) was first shown at the MWC2011(!). Then nVidia gave another look at it at Computex 2011. Prime was available in december 2011. Other products with Tegra 3 only hit the market in April 2012.

Tegra K1 was shown at the CES 4 weeks ago. Hm. :hmm:

 

[NTMBK]

Tegra 3 (Kal-El) was first shown at the MWC2011(!). Then nVidia gave another look at it at Computex 2011. Prime was available in december 2011. Other products with Tegra 3 only hit the market in April 2012.

Tegra K1 was shown at the CES 4 weeks ago. Hm. :hmm:

NVidia are claiming that K1 devices will be hitting the market in H12014, so you'd damn well hope that they have some OEMs lined up by now.

 

[ams23]

No surprise when the Xiaomi Mi3 phone proves T4 version is no better than the S800 and the latter chip have integrated LTE and much better economics of scale.

And the former "chip" is less expensive to produce (much smaller SoC die size) and is well suited for the target market (China Mobile). In fact, the Mi3 is probably the biggest sales success for Tegra 4.

 

[ams23]

you understand that -48% and then +50% is huge decline?
It is decline of 22% from last year to next year...

Even though Tegra revenue was at it's highest in fiscal year 2013, Tegra profitability was also at it's lowest that same fiscal year. Moving forward, expenses will be better contained as NVIDIA is able to leverage the same or similar GPU architecture across all lines of business. Tegra will be the building block, so to speak, for all future architectures starting with Maxwell.

 

[BrightCandle]

Nvidia is dabbling in a market that is in full swing competition, and there are a lot of ARM partners making parts that directly compete with where Nvidia is positioning its parts. In that sort of market dabbling and having slower release cycles than your competitors is I think reflected in their revenue. K1 is likely to help restore some of them (if it performs like they think it will) but they basically need to be putting put upgrades every 6 months to have any chance of retaining any share they get.

 

[Gikaseixas]

Nvidia is dabbling in a market that is in full swing competition, and there are a lot of ARM partners making parts that directly compete with where Nvidia is positioning its parts. In that sort of market dabbling and having slower release cycles than your competitors is I think reflected in their revenue. K1 is likely to help restore some of them (if it performs like they think it will) but they basically need to be putting put upgrades every 6 months to have any chance of retaining any share they get.

This sums it up
K1 is entering an hostile environment and has to beat Intel, the ARMy, Samsung, etc

 

[Genx87]

http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix...wJlNRREVTQz1TRUNUSU9OX0VOVElSRSZzdWJzaWQ9NTc=

In one year Tegra revenue has fallen from $764m to $398m. How much longer can Nvidia keep propping up this failing business?

As long as it takes. With the PC market stagnant they need to find a new revenue source. This is a very competitive market but Nvidia is determined to carve out their chunk of it.

 

[NTMBK]

As long as it takes. With the PC market stagnant they need to find a new revenue source. This is a very competitive market but Nvidia is determined to carve out their chunk of it.

They can't just pour money down this sinkhole indefinitely.

 

[ams23]

It is no surprise that Tegra revenue has dramatically dipped this fiscal year vs. prior fiscal year. That is what happens when one goes nearly 6 months with little to no new Tegra revenue (due to the delay in T4), and when T4i revenue doesn't get reflected yet either (that will be next fiscal qtr).

Tegra K1 is obviously a huge step forward. The GPU perf., perf. per watt, and feature set will likely be unrivaled in 1H 2014. And in 2H 2014, NVIDIA believes that they will have the most advanced ARM processor on the market. We'll see how it goes.

 

[ams23]

As long as it takes. With the PC market stagnant they need to find a new revenue source. This is a very competitive market but Nvidia is determined to carve out their chunk of it.

And it's not just that. The efficiency breakthroughs made in Tegra will filter through to each and every one of their products moving forward. And at some point in the future, each and every one of their products will be Tegra, in a sense, as technologies developed for Tegra get integrated on all the other products.

 

[BrightCandle]

The k1 demo was promising for performance level, but questionable on a power level. It looked like a 15W part in its demo board not a 5W part and that is a problem. I want high performance graphics and CPUs in my mobile devices, I just know its a way off yet.

 

[Homeles]

http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix...wJlNRREVTQz1TRUNUSU9OX0VOVElSRSZzdWJzaWQ9NTc=

In one year Tegra revenue has fallen from $764m to $398m. How much longer can Nvidia keep propping up this failing business?

Well, Tegra 4 was a massive flop. I don't mean to imply that I have faith that Nvidia will rule the mobile industry or anything, but anything would be an improvement on Tegra 4, as long as they can deliver on time. Tegra 4 came out far too late to be relevant.

 

[bullzz]

the more I see tegra losing money, I really think Intel missed buying nvidia instead of mcafee. instead of reinveting the wheel, they could be much better position in mobile, hpc and dgpu business