Taiwan folds away the flags as China woos its allies

[pauldun170]

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSKBN14C0KC


By J.R. Wu | TAIPEI
In Taipei's leafy Tienmu district, nearly half the flagpoles in front of the imposing pink building that houses most foreign embassies are bare, as Taiwan's dwindling band of diplomatic friends jump ship to its giant neighbour.

Another flag was taken down this week when tiny West African state Sao Tome and Principe severed ties with the self-ruled island that China claims as a renegade province.

Reshuffled for symmetry, the flag of the Solomon Islands now flutters from the pole still bearing the Sao Tome plaque.

Taiwan had as many as 30 diplomatic allies in the mid-1990s, but now has formal relations with just 21, mostly smaller and poorer nations in Latin America and the Pacific.

And Beijing is keen to nab the rest, angered by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's call with Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen earlier this month, the first public contact at that level since Washington switched recognition to China from Taiwan in 1979.

China is deeply suspicious of Tsai, who leads the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which traditionally advocates independence for Taiwan, even though Tsai says she wants peace with China. Beijing has never renounced the use of force to bring the island under its control.

"From the issue of Sao Tome cutting off ties it can be seen that the DDP authorities ought to understand one thing – that they should speed up the proper handling of cross-Strait relations, or similar incidents will continue to happen," said the overseas edition of the People's Daily, an official organ of China's ruling Communist Party.

Taiwan - official title Republic of China (ROC) - has competed with China for diplomatic recognition since the defeated Nationalists fled there in 1949 at the end of the Chinese civil war, but the tables turned decisively in Beijing's favour in the 1970s when the United Nations and United States switched sides.

Taiwan has accused China of providing financial incentives to Sao Tome in exchange for recognition, charges Beijing denies.

While Taipei and Beijing have both played that game previously, Taiwan now cannot hope to match the spending power of the world's second-largest economy.

"If China, for the sake of gaining Sao Tome, wants to put up large sums of money, please go ahead. It can play dollar diplomacy, but Taiwan will not play," said Lo Chih-cheng, a senior DPP lawmaker.

"UNNECESSARY SPENDING"

Taiwan's diplomatic efforts have at times descended into farce, with some countries like Liberia switching ties several times, sometimes in the space of a few years, depending on the money they could wrangle out of Taipei or Beijing.

In 1999, Papua New Guinea (PNG) changed its mind just a week after deciding to establish ties, and in the following decade there was a public outcry after media reported millions of dollars were wasted in a failed bid to lure it back.

The public remain unimpressed by the cost of what some see as a face-saving exercise, said Chuang Fu-yao, a Taipei resident walking near the embassy compound.

"Most people don't even know how many diplomatic allies we have. Our own feeling is we are spending a lot of money to do unnecessary things," he said.

Taiwan lost six allies during the last DPP-led government from 2000-2008, accounting for many of the 12 empty flagpoles at the embassy building.

Under Tsai's predecessor Ma Ying-jeou, from the more China-friendly Nationalist party, one more was lost.

Sao Tome, population just under 200,000, needed around $210 million in grants and low-interest loans, according to Taiwanese daily the United Daily News.

Taiwan foreign minister David Lee told reporters only that an "astronomical figure" was discussed.

"The government of Sao Tome and Principe, however, with excessive financial difficulties, and demands beyond those the ROC could meet, has ignored 20 years of friendly diplomatic relations, playing both sides of the Taiwan Strait while holding out for the highest bidder," Taiwan's Foreign Ministry said.

Sao Tome's prime minister this week denied the country asked Taiwan for money.

Taiwan's Central American allies are also vulnerable.

Diplomats in Beijing have told Reuters they believe Panama, one of Taiwan's oldest diplomatic friends, could be next to go.

Earlier this month, a large Chinese business delegation visited Panama after Tsai was there in June for the formal opening of the expanded Panama Canal.

Seeking to shore up its Central American ties, Tsai will visit Honduras, Nicaragua, Guatemala and El Salvador next month.

In Africa, now only Swaziland and Burkina Faso have ambassador-level relations with Taiwan.

Perhaps, said one foreign diplomat at the embassy building, allies are leaking away to the mainland in anticipation that Beijing will eventually win this battle of wills and bring Taiwan back under its control.

"Maybe they think: 'I will wait for you there'," he said.



(Additional reporting by Ben Blanchard in Beijing; Editing by Will Waterman)

However

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_US_arms_sales_to_Taiwan

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan_Relations_Act

http://www.cnn.com/2015/12/16/politics/u-s-taiwan-arms-sales/
"U.S. arms sales to Taiwan are guided by the Taiwan Relations Act and based on an assessment of Taiwan's defense needs," McKeeby said.
"Our longstanding policy on arms sales to Taiwan has been consistent across six different U.S. administrations," he added. "We believe our consistent policy has contributed to the security of Taiwan, and has also supported the maintenance of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait."

 

[agent00f]

For all the talk of support, ie directing money to the US "defense" industry, it's pretty obvious that Taiwan is just a pawn in this game.

 

[kage69]

Taipei wants to lay low for awhile, they've got Beijing riled enough that a new round of undermining Taiwan's diplomatic connections has begun. Xi and mouthy admirals are puffing out their chests and going red in the face. Taiwan doesn't want to add anything else to the stew for awhile.

I don't think it will help. I still think Xi is going to invade. It has to happen on his watch, and he doesn't have time to do it diplomatically. Not with Taiwan's current president and less than 5% of Taiwanese identifying as Chinese.

I hope Trump and his new cabinet see fit to give Taiwan some THAAD action, along with cutting edge AA, jamming, and anti-ship/sub capabilities. They need it.

 

[desura]

Taipei wants to lay low for awhile, they've got Beijing riled enough that a new round of undermining Taiwan's diplomatic connections has begun. Xi and mouthy admirals are puffing out their chests and going red in the face. Taiwan doesn't want to add anything else to the stew for awhile.

I don't think it will help. I still think Xi is going to invade. It has to happen on his watch, and he doesn't have time to do it diplomatically. Not with Taiwan's current president and less than 5% of Taiwanese identifying as Chinese.

I hope Trump and his new cabinet see fit to give Taiwan some THAAD action, along with cutting edge AA, jamming, and anti-ship/sub capabilities. They need it.

You really think he'll invade? that would be such a shitstorm.

Chinese nationalism really is something else. From what I've seen of it online and elsewhere, it is worse than anything in Europe because like, objectively China doesn't face anything like what Europe is experiencing and yet they're still so mad about stuff.

 

[agent00f]

You really think he'll invade? that would be such a shitstorm.

Chinese nationalism really is something else. From what I've seen of it online and elsewhere, it is worse than anything in Europe because like, objectively China doesn't face anything like what Europe is experiencing and yet they're still so mad about stuff.

That's really unfair to europe which has had quite the illustriousness history with doing something about peoples they don't like.

 

[desura]

That's really unfair to europe which has had quite the illustriousness history with doing something about peoples they don't like.

You mean unfair to the Chinese?

I've engaged with Chinese nationalists online...it's kind of scary because they'll talk about nuking Los Angeles pretty nonchalantly.

 

[agent00f]

You mean unfair to the Chinese?

I've engaged with Chinese nationalists online...it's kind of scary because they'll talk about nuking Los Angeles pretty nonchalantly.

It's almost like they have their own warloving chickenhawk right. Fortunately their officials pocket all the money instead of making foreigners suffer for it.

 

[desura]

It's almost like they have their own warloving chickenhawk right. Fortunately their officials pocket all the money instead of making foreigners suffer for it.

Yeah, I don't buy into that. I think most governments are rough approximations of the society that they represent.

 

[agent00f]

Yeah, I don't buy into that. I think most governments are rough approximations of the society that they represent.

First the CCP isn't exactly a representative gubmint no matter what anyone thinks, and second I'm sure you also think you really got the pulse on their society just like their dummies must think all of US are trump level degenerates.

 

[Jhhnn]

Taipei wants to lay low for awhile, they've got Beijing riled enough that a new round of undermining Taiwan's diplomatic connections has begun. Xi and mouthy admirals are puffing out their chests and going red in the face. Taiwan doesn't want to add anything else to the stew for awhile.

I don't think it will help. I still think Xi is going to invade. It has to happen on his watch, and he doesn't have time to do it diplomatically. Not with Taiwan's current president and less than 5% of Taiwanese identifying as Chinese.

I hope Trump and his new cabinet see fit to give Taiwan some THAAD action, along with cutting edge AA, jamming, and anti-ship/sub capabilities. They need it.

I think that's bullshit. So long as the Taiwanese just keep doing their thing the way they have then the Mainlanders will very likely do the same. Business ties across the strait are huge.

The mainlanders don't have the kind of Navy or Air force required to successfully invade Taiwan, an Island with 24M people who'd fight like Hell.

 

[JSt0rm]

It's almost like they have their own warloving chickenhawk right. Fortunately their officials pocket all the money instead of making foreigners suffer for it.

They live in every country. lol

 

[rommelrommel]

I think that's bullshit. So long as the Taiwanese just keep doing their thing the way they have then the Mainlanders will very likely do the same. Business ties across the strait are huge.

The mainlanders don't have the kind of Navy or Air force required to successfully invade Taiwan, an Island with 24M people who'd fight like Hell.

Most of the analysts are saying the PRC could probably take Taiwan by force, but at the cost of destroying an awful lot of what they're capturing. The PRC navy and airforce is kind of shit but Taiwan is so close that they could probably operate with some success.

The speed and ferocity of US support would likely still be a deciding factor.

 

[sdifox]

There is no longer a need for PRC to invade Taiwan, just through sheer economic destruction PRC can erase ROC within three decades. That is unless Taiwan pushes PRC too far and PRC just goes postal.

 

[Balt]

There is no longer a need for PRC to invade Taiwan, just through sheer economic destruction PRC can erase ROC within three decades. That is unless Taiwan pushes PRC too far and PRC just goes postal.

Well, they've already enticed a lot of the Taiwan business elites to have ties in mainland China. Why take over by military invasion when you can use money? I'm not sure it will even take three decades.

PRC also has a lot of money to throw around to encourage other countries to isolate Taiwan from any sort of participation in the international sphere, whether it's the UN, NGOs, whatever.

Will Trump be the answer? I kind of doubt it. He does have some China hawks on his team, but his comments also indicate he personally views the One China policy as a bargaining chip. In other words, for enough incentive, it seems like he's willing to throw Taiwan under the bus.

 

[sdifox]

Well, they've already enticed a lot of the Taiwan business elites to have ties in mainland China. Why take over by military invasion when you can use money? I'm not sure it will even take three decades.

PRC also has a lot of money to throw around to encourage other countries to isolate Taiwan from any sort of participation in the international sphere, whether it's the UN, NGOs, whatever.

Will Trump be the answer? I kind of doubt it. He does have some China hawks on his team, but his comments also indicate he personally views the One China policy as a bargaining chip. In other words, for enough incentive, it seems like he's willing to throw Taiwan under the bus.

Taiwan will forever be a bargaining chip. And extorsion target. The arms sales are protection money.

 

[Balt]

Taiwan will forever be a bargaining chip. And extorsion target. The arms sales are protection money.

Agreed. The question (IMO) is whether Trump is willing to use it as a bargaining chip to actually improve Taiwan's standing in the world. I doubt it. It seems more like he's willing to make concessions to weaken the long-standing US policy on Taiwan.

 

[sdifox]

Agreed. The question (IMO) is whether Trump is willing to use it as a bargaining chip to actually improve Taiwan's standing in the world. I doubt it. It seems more like he's willing to make concessions to weaken the long-standing US policy on Taiwan.

Realistically, I am not even sure he knows what he is thinking.

 

[agent00f]

Well, they've already enticed a lot of the Taiwan business elites to have ties in mainland China. Why take over by military invasion when you can use money? I'm not sure it will even take three decades.

PRC also has a lot of money to throw around to encourage other countries to isolate Taiwan from any sort of participation in the international sphere, whether it's the UN, NGOs, whatever.

Will Trump be the answer? I kind of doubt it. He does have some China hawks on his team, but his comments also indicate he personally views the One China policy as a bargaining chip. In other words, for enough incentive, it seems like he's willing to throw Taiwan under the bus.

Just fyi, One China is official policy of both sides of the strait.

 

[rommelrommel]

Just fyi, One China is official policy of both sides of the strait.

Taiwan abandoning the One China policy is tantamount to a declaration of independance. Given the PRC guarantee to go to war if that happens what choice does Taiwan have? If Taiwan wasn't under constant threat of PRC aggression they would have been formally independent decades ago.

 

[Jhhnn]

Taiwan abandoning the One China policy is tantamount to a declaration of independance. Given the PRC guarantee to go to war if that happens what choice does Taiwan have? If Taiwan wasn't under constant threat of PRC aggression they would have been formally independent decades ago.

Please. Trump is talking trash, trying to pick up an illegitimate bargaining chip in Taiwan. They & the mainlanders have maintained the peace for 40 years under one China policy. Neither one really has proper incentive to knowingly change that.

 

[MajinCry]

Yeah, I don't buy into that. I think most governments are rough approximations of the society that they represent.

Following that logic, Americans are racist, rapacious, ignorant warmongers that love to rape and slay brown 'n' yellow people.

Or are you saying that the American Government isn't representative of America, that America is the exception? Would be awfully convenient for you.

 

[desura]

Following that logic, Americans are racist, rapacious, ignorant warmongers that love to rape and slay brown 'n' yellow people.

Or are you saying that the American Government isn't representative of America, that America is the exception? Would be awfully convenient for you.

So are people all over the world. Every people across the world has their petty little hatred of their neighbors. Hutus and Tutsis murdered each other pretty readily, Even though most people couldn't tell the difference between the two.

 

[MajinCry]

So are people all over the world. Every people across the world has their petty little hatred of their neighbors. Hutus and Tutsis murdered each other pretty readily, Even though most people couldn't tell the difference between the two.

Huh. Didn't know that America was right next to Vietnam.

 

[desura]

Huh. Didn't know that America was right next to Vietnam.

Vietnam was ideological. It was from the struggle between the USA and USSR. Ironically, both USA and USSR had far more in common than they had with others peoples.

Vietnam war also was just one along a string of conflicts. Not long after Vietnam goes to war with China and today they hate the Chinese far far more. Today they love America and there are talks of becoming an American ally.

 

[Jhhnn]

[.

Most of the analysts are saying the PRC could probably take Taiwan by force, but at the cost of destroying an awful lot of what they're capturing. The PRC navy and airforce is kind of shit but Taiwan is so close that they could probably operate with some success.

The speed and ferocity of US support would likely still be a deciding factor.

Please. The parties have kept the peace themselves under the one China policy & there's no reason to think they'll change that, regardless of American chest beating.