Syria: US and Turkey agree to seize, govern Raqqa

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
33,435
7,501
136
2016
August
Aug 9th: Russia's Putin and Turkey's Erdogan meet after damaging rift
Aug 10th: Turkey signals joint defense plan with Russia
Aug 18th: Syrian planes said to bomb Kurdish-held area for first time
Aug 20th: US scrambles jets to the Syrian city of Hassakeh
Aug 21st: Top US commander warns Russia, Syria
Aug 22nd: Kurdish militia launches assault to evict Syrian army
Aug 22nd: Turkey launches artillery strikes on IS, Kurdish PYD in north Syria
Aug 23rd: Syria Kurds win battle with government, Turkey mobilizes against them
Aug 24th: Turkish tanks, special forces launch first major push into Syria
Aug 24th: Biden orders Syrian Kurds to pull back

October

Oct 4th: VP Debate, US should escalate in Syria to establish safe / no-fly zones
Oct 6th: Russia Threatens to Shoot Down U.S. Aircraft in Syria
Oct 7th: Kerry says Russia, Syria should face war crimes probe


Well played Turkey.

First they play up the failed coup and Russian relations to amp up our desperation to keep them as an Ally. United States clearly believes it must not lose Turkey. Then Turkey enters Syria to show they mean business. Biden visits Turkey and suddenly we're throwing the Kurds under the bus.

United States wants a "safe zone" in Syria. Turkey wants a piece of the pie and to prevent Kurdish influence. The combination of those two ideas is going to be the official US / Turkey invasion, and KEEPING of land in Syria.

Wonder what Assad and Russia have to say about that... they already vowed to attack. Now we're calling their bluff.


In the game of escalation there are too many pieces on this board to know when one thing will lead to another. But you should be made aware of the stakes. Because it's not too late to stop our elected leaders from escalating things further. If anyone wants an adventure in Syria, tell them no.

World War Three may have already begun in Iraq and Syria
 
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Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
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Do you see what has occurred in quick succession, one event leading to another? War and violence is escalating in Syria and it starts with Syria bombing the Kurds for the first time in five years. Why now? Just look back one week and see who, at war with the Kurds, joined the Russian military alliance. Turkey.

We now have, on behalf of Turkey, Syria attacking US proxies with US special forces on the ground. We even scrambled jets threatening to shoot down Syrian aircraft. Will Russia let this slide without consequence? As one proxy fights another, both US and Russia are on the field. So if Syrians bomb the Kurds, and Kurds attack the Syrians. Does the US follow up by attacking Syrian military? Does Russia attack United States military to protect Syria?

Whose side is Turkey on? Surely not with the Kurds. It should be expected that in exchange for the military alliance, Putin and Assad had to agree to solve Turkey's ongoing war with the Kurds. For five years Assad did not attack them. One week after Turkey, all that changes.

In the game of escalation there are too many pieces on this board to know when one thing will lead to another. But you should be made aware of the stakes. Because it's not too late to stop our elected leaders from escalating things further. If anyone wants an adventure in Syria, tell them no.

World War Three may have already begun in Iraq and Syria

Since the OP, Turkey has directly entered the war in Syria to take out both ISIS and the Kurds.
I think our special forces helping the Kurds may want to leave. So we won't have to scramble jets against Syria, Russia, or Turkey.

 
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DrunkenSano

Diamond Member
Aug 8, 2008
3,892
490
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I'm not sure why we still have people over there, pull our people out. Let them slaughter each other in that region, we really need to stop wasting lives and tax dollars on useless regions like that.
 

norseamd

Lifer
Dec 13, 2013
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This is big shit, and I mean BIG SHIT!

I have no fucking clue how it is all going to play out from here.
 

norseamd

Lifer
Dec 13, 2013
13,990
180
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Since the OP, Turkey has directly entered the war in Syria to take out both ISIS and the Kurds.
I think our special forces helping the Kurds may want to leave. So we won't have to scramble jets against Syria, Russia, or Turkey.


If we have sufficient numbers, we can take them all on. Turkey is the only country who might have large numbers of aircraft in the area. They probably do.
 

Thump553

Lifer
Jun 2, 2000
12,672
2,425
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This is big shit, and I mean BIG SHIT!

I have no fucking clue how it is all going to play out from here.
I think, from the last thirty+ years or so it is almost a bygone conclusion that the Kurds will get screwed over again.

Interesting that Turkey signed a joint defense plan with Turkey-think they may pull out of NATO? US squaring off against Turkey would be NATO versus NATO.

One thing I just thought of-are our planes and personnel still operating out of Turkey?
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
83,989
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Since the OP, Turkey has directly entered the war in Syria to take out both ISIS and the Kurds.
I think our special forces helping the Kurds may want to leave. So we won't have to scramble jets against Syria, Russia, or Turkey.


The US is supporting the Turkish action with airstrikes. We are working together, not adversarially. Why would we want to leave?

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/25/w...column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news
 

norseamd

Lifer
Dec 13, 2013
13,990
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map.jpg


Possible map of 2nd Turkish Army. From South Front, take with a very large grain of salt.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
83,989
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Why would America want to support Turkey in something that not only doesnt do anything for us, but also is all but unlikely to not end in a deeping of the cesspool?

Why would weakening ISIS make the situation worse?
 

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
33,435
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If we have sufficient numbers, we can take them all on. Turkey is the only country who might have large numbers of aircraft in the area. They probably do.

I'm not sure we want to "take them all on".
If you're committing acts of war, it must be for a purpose. A clearly defined reason.

Russia / Turkey / Syria have an interest in stability, and government control over Syrian territory. They'll demolish ISIS.
Do they not share and achieve our goals?
 

norseamd

Lifer
Dec 13, 2013
13,990
180
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I'm not sure we want to "take them all on".
If you're committing acts of war, it must be for a purpose. A clearly defined reason.

Russia / Turkey / Syria have an interest in stability, and government control over Syrian territory. They'll demolish ISIS.
Do they not share and achieve our goals?

Syria obviously has interest in regaining and keeping control over their whole country. Russia has interests in keeping their ports and bases on the Eastern Mediterranean coast. Those may or may not be compatible with stability of the Middle East.

I dont think Turkey has interests in promoting stability in the Middle East, at least not until after they get rid of the Alawites and Kurds, and take control over the whole region for themselves.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
83,989
47,945
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I'm not sure we want to "take them all on".
If you're committing acts of war, it must be for a purpose. A clearly defined reason.

Russia / Turkey / Syria have an interest in stability, and government control over Syrian territory. They'll demolish ISIS.
Do they not share and achieve our goals?

This is not correct.

Turkey does not want government control over Syrian territory. They have in fact been a staunch supporter of the Syrian opposition from the start.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
83,989
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It has nothing to do with ISIS. If it did, then why did Joe Biden tell the Kurds to haul ass to the eastern side of the Euphrates?

So to be clear you believe the US is assisting the Turks in attacking the Kurds? I find this to be highly unlikely.
 

norseamd

Lifer
Dec 13, 2013
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So to be clear you believe the US is assisting the Turks in attacking the Kurds? I find this to be highly unlikely.

That isnt what I said. Im not even sure what the fuck is going on in the last 24 or 48 hours. Syria isnt going to take this lightly.
 

bguile

Senior member
Nov 30, 2011
529
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Pretty much throwing the Kurds under the bus. From what I have gathered the SDF were not supposed to advance after taking Manjib, but they did anyway. Probably this is the implementation of the long talked about security or buffer zone by Turkey.

Syria won't like it, but there isn't much they can do about it.
 

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
33,435
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This is not correct.

Turkey does not want government control over Syrian territory. They have in fact been a staunch supporter of the Syrian opposition from the start.

You haven't been paying attention.
  • Russia stepped in and now pulls some big strings with Assad / Syria.
  • Turkey apologized to Russia and changed position on Syria.
  • A United States General / NATO commander is accused of plotting the Turkish Coup.
  • Turkey begins a MILITARY Alliance with Russia.
  • A week later both Syria and Turkey are bombing Kurds.
  • Now Turkish military has moved into Syria.
I'll believe Turkey is not aligned with Syria's government when they stop attacking the same targets, and actually fight one another. Because right now, as I see it, Russia is brokering relations in an Alliance to shape the future of Syria.

July 13th: Syrian rebels stunned as Turkey signals normalisation of Damascus relations
Aug 20th: Turkey: Assad can be part of transition in Syria

This is Putin controlling the Middle East.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
83,989
47,945
136
You haven't been paying attention.
  • Russia stepped in and now pulls some big strings with Assad / Syria.
  • Turkey apologized to Russia and changed position on Syria.
  • A United States General / NATO commander is accused of plotting the Turkish Coup.
  • Turkey begins a MILITARY Alliance with Russia.
  • A week later both Syria and Turkey are bombing Kurds.
  • Now Turkish military has moved into Syria.
I'll believe Turkey is not aligned with Syria's government when they stop attacking the same targets, and actually fight one another. Because right now, as I see it, Russia is brokering relations in an Alliance to shape the future of Syria.

July 13th: Syrian rebels stunned as Turkey signals normalisation of Damascus relations
Aug 20th: Turkey: Assad can be part of transition in Syria

This is Putin controlling the Middle East.

From your link:

However, Yildirim told foreign media representatives on Saturday that Assad has no place in Syria's future.
...
Turkey is one of the main supporters of rebels fighting to overthrow Assad, and hosts more than 2.7 million Syrian refugees.

Turkey's position on Syria has not meaningfully changed. Turkey's current action is being done in conjunction with the United States. If Putin is controlling the Middle East he's doing an awfully bad job of it.
 

norseamd

Lifer
Dec 13, 2013
13,990
180
106
Turkey's position on Syria has not meaningfully changed. Turkey's current action is being done in conjunction with the United States. If Putin is controlling the Middle East he's doing an awfully bad job of it.

How is America going to respond if Turkey attacks Kurds east of the Euphrates?
 

agent00f

Lifer
Jun 9, 2016
12,203
1,242
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2016

Do you see what has occurred in quick succession, one event leading to another? War and violence is escalating in Syria and it starts with Syria bombing the Kurds for the first time in five years. Why now? Just look back one week and see who, at war with the Kurds, joined the Russian military alliance. Turkey.

We now have, on behalf of Turkey, Syria attacking US proxies with US special forces on the ground. We even scrambled jets threatening to shoot down Syrian aircraft. Will Russia let this slide without consequence? As one proxy fights another, both US and Russia are on the field. So if Syrians bomb the Kurds, and Kurds attack the Syrians. Does the US follow up by attacking Syrian military? Does Russia attack United States military to protect Syria?

Whose side is Turkey on? Surely not with the Kurds. It should be expected that in exchange for the military alliance, Putin and Assad had to agree to solve Turkey's ongoing war with the Kurds. For five years Assad did not attack them. One week after Turkey, all that changes.

In the game of escalation there are too many pieces on this board to know when one thing will lead to another. But you should be made aware of the stakes. Because it's not too late to stop our elected leaders from escalating things further. If anyone wants an adventure in Syria, tell them no.

World War Three may have already begun in Iraq and Syria

Uh, the whole point of proxy wars is you don't fight them yourself.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
83,989
47,945
136
How is America going to respond if Turkey attacks Kurds east of the Euphrates?

That's a very interesting question! I have no idea. I imagine we have strongly discouraged them from doing that but I guess you never know.
 

Texashiker

Lifer
Dec 18, 2010
18,811
197
106
I'm not sure why we still have people over there, pull our people out. Let them slaughter each other in that region, we really need to stop wasting lives and tax dollars on useless regions like that.

Wikileaks emails show the US wants Assad out of power.

We will stay there and continue to destabilize the area until Assad is out of power and Iran has no allies.