Stupid Q (that's me!): 401k going half to foreign index funds is protected from a domestic meltdown, right?

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No Lifer
Sep 29, 2000
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Yes, we're all in the same dirty bath, but for a moment pretend that the US stock market simply disappeared tomorrow and it cost $1M to buy a bigmac. If I had 50% in a S&P index fund and 50% in some international index, as long as the international stock markets were still there and pretend they were unchanged, I still have half my money, right? I know that my accounts are all valued in US dollars, but am I missing anything?
 

Pliablemoose

Lifer
Oct 11, 1999
25,195
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#1, the US stock market won't disappear, if it does, we'll be living la vida loca as Mad Max.

#2. Despite arguments to the contrary, the rest of the world is linked to our fiat currency, if the US economy catches a cold, they get pneumonia.

Bonds and Small Caps, in my current IRA, (most I've rolled over into a self controlled IRA through a broker) I'm 100% in bonds at the moment.
 

Fern

Elite Member
Sep 30, 2003
26,907
174
106
Originally posted by: Skoorb
Yes, we're all in the same dirty bath, but for a moment pretend that the US stock market simply disappeared tomorrow and it cost $1M to buy a bigmac. If I had 50% in a S&P index fund and 50% in some international index, as long as the international stock markets were still there and pretend they were unchanged, I still have half my money, right? I know that my accounts are all valued in US dollars, but am I missing anything?

Under your assumption - YES.

I think one must be careful because the exchange fluctuations can greatly influence returns for investments in foriegn markets.

You are engaged in risk diversity, the porfolio theory if you will, by spreading investments across countries. But there are other, additional ways, to diversify as well.

I.e., some choose commodities (there are those which trancend borders and currency such as gold, and those that don't because of transportion costs and /or other factors), some choose other things (real estate etc).

While I have benefited from playing with foriegn currency, I don't find it particularly helpful now as I am completely involved in the USA. Unless I am importing/buying/exporting/selling foreign goods, which I am not, so it matters little to nothing to me if USA currency depreciates compared to foreign currency.

BTW: If US currency depreciated to the point where a Big Mac cost $1 Million, you'd likely to be able to pay off all your loans (home mortgage, car loans etc) very easily; bankers would be the ones hurt not us, inspite of what others would tell you.

I'm not afraid of hyper-inflation, I'm worried about deflation or stagflation.

Fern
 

rchiu

Diamond Member
Jun 8, 2002
3,846
0
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Heh, maybe under your assumption. But your assumption is more unrealistic then your scenario of US market disappeared and it cost 1m to buy bigmac. Every economy is closely related, and many economy depends on US economy to function. Just look at the mortgage/banking mess in the US, US stock actually held up BETTER then European, China, India and many other major stock market this year. If US economy failed, don't expect your international holding to keep their value. In fact, some of your foreign holding may disappear in value before the US holding if it has high beta against US index, which a lot of foreign index does these days.
 

StageLeft

No Lifer
Sep 29, 2000
70,150
5
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Originally posted by: boomerang
Deleted the whole post because I was talking out of my ass.
Damnit, I missed what you were saying!
BTW: If US currency depreciated to the point where a Big Mac cost $1 Million, you'd likely to be able to pay off all your loans (home mortgage, car loans etc) very easily; bankers would be the ones hurt not us, inspite of what others would tell you.
Yep, please let me know before it happens so that I can get multiple car loans and credit cards on the same day :D
 

Thump553

Lifer
Jun 2, 2000
12,837
2,621
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Originally posted by: boomerang
Deleted the whole post because I was talking out of my ass.

In all my time in P&N I've never seen a a post like this. Several hundred times when it should have been said, but never once that it was. Congrats, sir.
 

StageLeft

No Lifer
Sep 29, 2000
70,150
5
0
Originally posted by: Thump553
Originally posted by: boomerang
Deleted the whole post because I was talking out of my ass.

In all my time in P&N I've never seen a a post like this. Several hundred times when it should have been said, but never once that it was. Congrats, sir.
He's too good for P&N ;)

 

yllus

Elite Member & Lifer
Aug 20, 2000
20,577
432
126
I don't know crap about crap, but I do read a lot of material from people who might? Take a gander and see if it makes sense to you.

ETFs can help ride volatility

While exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are associated in the popular mind primarily with equities, in recent years virtually every asset class has been represented among the multiple new product releases.

In light of the current turbulence in financial markets and the threat to the values of many stocks, advisors and their clients are building portfolios that also include ETFs focused on fixed-income, real estate or REITs, commodities, precious metals and other asset classes not highly correlated with equities.

As he notes in a video interview posted at www.financialpost.com, Barclays Global Investors Canada president and CEO Rajiv Silgardo says many advisors are embracing its broad iShares CDN Bond Index Fund [XBB/TSX] and its iShares CDN Real Return Bond Index Fund [XRB/TSX].

The former has a Management Expense Ratio (MER) of 0.3% and includes a broad cross-section of Canadian government and corporate bonds. The Real Return Bond fund provides inflation protection at an MER of 0.35%: either fee is far more cost-effective than the average bond mutual fund MER of 1.4% in this country.

Silgardo is confident an all-ETF portfolio diversified across multiple asset classes could withstand the kind of volatility we've experienced so far in 2008. "My view is investors have to stay focused on the longer term. They can take advantage of short term tactical opportunities with part of their portfolio but the bulk, the core of their portfolio, has to be positioned in line with their Investment Policy Statements, which comes off the Strategic Asset Allocation investors do."

Advisors need to know how to build portfolios that will give clients the return they need over the long term. "They can do it with all ETFs and be confident with the markets' ups and downs that their portfolios will serve them well. ETFs will give them the diversification they need, the transparency and it all comes at a lower cost."

If you're looking to simply preserve your capital and ride out this storm, you can supposedly do so using an investment mix termed the Ultra-Soft Bed Portfolio.
 

GTKeeper

Golden Member
Apr 14, 2005
1,118
0
0
Originally posted by: Pliablemoose
#1, the US stock market won't disappear, if it does, we'll be living la vida loca as Mad Max.

#2. Despite arguments to the contrary, the rest of the world is linked to our fiat currency, if the US economy catches a cold, they get pneumonia.

Bonds and Small Caps, in my current IRA, (most I've rolled over into a self controlled IRA through a broker) I'm 100% in bonds at the moment.


qft

Bonds are going to be a good deal going forward until the economy straightens itself out. When there is little money to borrow, its expensive to finance debt. Hence bond yields go up.
 

boomerang

Lifer
Jun 19, 2000
18,883
641
126
Originally posted by: Skoorb
Originally posted by: Thump553
Originally posted by: boomerang
Deleted the whole post because I was talking out of my ass.

In all my time in P&N I've never seen a a post like this. Several hundred times when it should have been said, but never once that it was. Congrats, sir.
He's too good for P&N ;)
Aw shucks you guys. (boomerang looks downward and kicks at the dirt a little bit)