Study: Calif. overdue for big quake

[StrongBad]

"LOS ANGELES, Nov. 17 ? Southern California is overdue for the next ?Big One,? say geologists who have uncovered a detailed history of more than a dozen major earthquakes in the past 1,500 years on a stretch of the San Andreas fault "

This would seriously suck.

Link

 

[Amused]

They've been crowing about the "Big One" since before I was born (1967). I remember being sacred to death the whole time I was growing up in the LA area about the "Big One" that was supposed to come. And that's even after living through the 1971 Sylmar quake and countless smaller quakes.

 

[tcsenter]

They've been crowing about the "Big One" since before I was born (1967).

I don't think this study is calling for "the" big one, but "a" big one.

 

[HappyPuppy]

California is always overdue for a big quake. Anticipating the big quake is akin to anxiously awaiting the second coming. Get on with your life and don't worry about it. There is nothing you can do. When it hits you could be anyplace.


Edit: I was born and raised in So. CA. I have been through many quakes here and even worse ones in other countries that don't have the building codes we do.

 

[The Stigenator]

I thought the northridge quake and the hisperia quake were big enough.. I dont need a big one.

 

[dethman]

yup they've been saying the 'big one' is coming since i was like 5, which was a loooong time ago.

 

[Jfur]

Originally posted by: Amused
They've been crowing about the "Big One" since before I was born (1967). I remember being sacred to death the whole time I was growing up in the LA area about the "Big One" that was supposed to come. And that's even after living through the 1971 Sylmar quake and countless smaller quakes.

before that it was "common knowledge" that California would actually split off from the rest if the U.S. and sink into the ocean during the big quake. I'm more concerned about the New Madrid fault.

 

[notfred]

Originally posted by: StrongBad
"LOS ANGELES, Nov. 17 ? Southern California is overdue for the next ?Big One,? say geologists who have uncovered a detailed history of more than a dozen major earthquakes in the past 1,500 years on a stretch of the San Andreas fault "

This would seriously suck.

Link

So, we've had 14 major earthquakes in 1500 years. Meaning we average roughly 1 major earthquake every 100 years. The last one was in 1994. We have 92 years before we're overdue. Where due they get that we're due for a major eathquake in So. Cal. every 8 years?

 

[NutBucket]

Who knows. HappyPuppy put it best, "Get on with your life and don't worry about it." If that's the main danger we have here then I think we're better off then a lot of other places.

 

[notfred]

?As far back as we look, we see these earthquakes happening, so I?d say there?s a very high probability of it happening again in the lifetimes of most people living in Southern California right now,? said Tom Fumal, a research geologist with the U.S. Geological Survey

So, it's likely there will be another earthquake in the next 50 years? So what? It's likely there'll be 5 hurricanes to hit Floida next year.

"Based on recurrence models, there is about a 30 percent probability that a quake nearly as large as the magnitude-7.9 that rocked Alaska on Nov. 3 will strike the southern San Andreas in the next 30 years. That number is in line with previous estimates."

yeah, so, one every hundred years, like I said....

 

[Jfur]

Originally posted by: notfred
?As far back as we look, we see these earthquakes happening, so I?d say there?s a very high probability of it happening again in the lifetimes of most people living in Southern California right now,? said Tom Fumal, a research geologist with the U.S. Geological Survey

So, it's likely there will be another earthquake in the next 50 years? So what? It's likely there'll be 5 hurricanes to hit Floida next year.

"Based on recurrence models, there is about a 30 percent probability that a quake nearly as large as the magnitude-7.9 that rocked Alaska on Nov. 3 will strike the southern San Andreas in the next 30 years. That number is in line with previous estimates."

yeah, so, one every hundred years, like I said....

I think they mean the 1994 quake wasn't all that big.

 

[Geekbabe]

The earth won't be moving till I get myself out there, Boston does know how to rock

 

[Yossarian]

I have a feeling that the tolerance on geological events is like +/- 1000 years so I'm not too worried.

 

[rayma2]

Originally posted by: HappyPuppy
California is always overdue for a big quake. Anticipating the big quake is akin to anxiously awaiting the second coming. Get on with your life and don't worry about it. There is nothing you can do. When it hits you could be anyplace.


Edit: I was born and raised in So. CA. I have been through many quakes here and even worse ones in other countries that don't have the building codes we do.

yeah I like that way of thinking of it.. There is nothing you can do and they can not predict them well enough to do any good so why worry. it will hit when it wants to.

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

Originally posted by: notfred
?As far back as we look, we see these earthquakes happening, so I?d say there?s a very high probability of it happening again in the lifetimes of most people living in Southern California right now,? said Tom Fumal, a research geologist with the U.S. Geological Survey So, it's likely there will be another earthquake in the next 50 years? So what? It's likely there'll be 5 hurricanes to hit Floida next year. "Based on recurrence models, there is about a 30 percent probability that a quake nearly as large as the magnitude-7.9 that rocked Alaska on Nov. 3 will strike the southern San Andreas in the next 30 years. That number is in line with previous estimates." yeah, so, one every hundred years, like I said....

Ummm when was the Great San Francisco Earthquake?

You will get a massive earthquake. You always have. BTW, no geologist ever said California was going to fall off. Indeed, HappyPuppy has the right idea. Get on with your lives. You can move though. Remember that one day, you will face your last moments gasping for air and failing. Just a cheery thought for you.

 

[Sid59]

woo .. go california

i think the world is overdue for a huge hot heat wave and then some flooding.

I am an expert too.

 

[0roo0roo]

eh no worries. never overdue on massive flooding or hurricanes or tornados(none in california) thats the price we pay, so be it

 

[manly]

For those dismissing this study, the Northridge earthquake isn't really supporting evidence. I recall it was a 6.7 (sometimes cited up to 6.9 or so) on the Richter scale and this study is referring to earthquakes 5 to 15 times stronger than that.

Yes, Northridge was considered a moderate to major earthquake, but mainly because it illustrated how vulnerable L.A. county buildings were. I was maybe less than 60 miles away from the epicenter, and just slept through it.

The Kobe, Japan earthquake shocked many geologists because it showed a moderately strong earthquake (slightly more powerful than Northridge) was able to cause very heavy damage in the most earthquake-prepared country in the world.

The last devastating earthquake in California was San Francisco, 1906 which was something like almost 8.0 on the Richter scale (historically considered an 8.3 but since modified downward). While nobody knows where or when the next massive earthquake will occur, this study basically says the probability in Southern California shouldn't be ignored.

I do agree that the hurricane situation in Florida is much more inane. There are coastal areas completely susceptible to annual weather patterns where the government still allows trailer parks to be built. It's all a huge waste of taxpayer money and insurance premiums.

 

[Jfur]

Originally posted by: Hayabusarider

BTW, no geologist ever said California was going to fall off.

No, but a lot of people were convinced it would.

 

[wellerdball]

if u guys live in socal stop by my place if u want any of my stuff look at my profile

 

[DanTMWTMP]

Originally posted by: wellerdball
if u guys live in socal stop by my place if u want any of my stuff look at my profile

LOL


neways...
aha, well, we've been through the northridge...it wasn't THAT bad...(from where i was at least...)...i never went to the are where it was hard hit though....but like someone said earlier...live on dude....

 

[dullard]

I just tossed a coin and got 10 tails in a row. That means I must be overdue for a heads so next toss is more likely to be heads. Yeah, and the sun revolves around the Earth. The fact is every year there is roughly a 1% chance for a major earthquake. This chance doesn't change even though the last big quake was nearly a century ago. The only way we could prove otherwise is if we found a Earth cycle of roughly a century that is guaranteed to cause Earthquakes and was predictable. So far nothing like that is known. So with the knowledge we have, its the same chance this year as it was last year, the same ~1% chance it was decades ago.

 

[StageLeft]

CA was overdue years ago!

 

[MomAndSkoorbaby]

And I thought tornados were bad....

 

[boi]

ahh, oh well, its my time