Striking predictions for the furture of computing

[Diasper]

Just found an article on theinquirer.co.uk linked from a mainstream UK newspaper which has an article about the predicitions of Ian Pearson, who is the head of a futurology unit at BT.

Article.

What do you think?



I wasn't quite sure whether this belonged here or in CPU/Processors or in Off Topic. I hope this is fine else I shall repost there.

 

[Greenman]

Tripe.

 

[RussianSensation]

2020 hmmmm .... I am going on vacation to Mars and kicking back with 10 virtual girls.

 

[pm]

I don't buy a lot of it.

I think it's very hard to predict the future. 50 years ago, they had envisioned that we'd all be driving flying cars by now... it was commonly thought that flying cars were just around the corner. And 20 years ago, we all thought that we'd be using speech recognition to talk to our computers. But very few were imagining that we'd be hooking all of the computers in the world together so that we can have a gigantic garage sale called "Ebay", among other things.

Predicting the future is a very difficult challenge. Downloading human conciousness into a computer...? I have a feeling that this will be a little harder than Mr. Pearson seems to think.

 

[Tostada]

Predicting the future is ridiculous beyond a certain point, and the article in question has absolutely passed that point.

You just can't predict what kind of revolutionary leaps science will take. There really hasn't been much revolutionary going on in a long time. Sure, we have plenty evolutionary changes to technology, but if you transported someone from 1955 to 2005, I can't imagine what would shock them about our society in the past 50 years. They might think cell phones were awfully clever. They might be impressed that we landed on the moon 35 years ago, or maybe be relieved that society isn't full of post-apocalyptic mutants after a massive nuclear World War III, but not all that much has really changed in 50 years. And now this moron is claiming that in less than 50 years we will have achievd immortality? That's a lot of faith in technology. I don't trust computers to balance my checkbook without checking it three times, and technology sure as hell isn't advancing world peace or teaching politicians what's best for the economy. Having a lot of faith in technology is dumb.

Did you ever read 2001? Asimov predicted satellites, but science pretty much stagnated before Dave reached Europa.

How sad is it that for the past 100 years our civilization hasn't been able to come up with anything better than the internal combustion engine that's actually practical? And we're going to achieve immortality? Talking yogurt, maybe -- I can see people investing resources in that kind of crap.

 

[shukusatsu]

It's like the guy sat down and watched Ghost in the Shell and some other futuristic sci-fi anime and wrote the article. Not saying what alot of he said won't happen, just an observation.

 

[Brian23]

I like to watch GITS SAC.

Edit: add a word

 

[shukusatsu]

Originally posted by: Brian23
I like to watch GITS SAC.

Well, yea, so do I, and from the sound of it, so does the guy who wrote this article. On a side note, I am definantly copying my mind in case I die in the year whatever he made up. Zodd the Immortal.

PS: Predicting the future is hard, but alot of what he said is completely plausiable. The hard part is not predicting what always, but when.

 

[AnotherGuy]

well i liked the article to some point... but that talking yogurt and immortality... yeah thats just plain stupid i think.

 

[Diasper]

Hehe - some refreshing posts.

Alot of that seemed rather fantastical to me. I agree everything is far too unpredicatable - external factors/changes affect technological advance alot eg a massive recession/energy crisis/wars/asteroid hitting the earth... ; )

Anyway, why I raised the question was because the guy Ian Pearson isn't just some ignorant science fiction writer.

Pearson, 44, has formed his mind-boggling vision of the future after graduating in applied mathematics and theoretical physics, spending four years working in missile design and the past 20 years working in optical networks, broadband network evolution and cybernetics in BT's laboratories. He admits his prophecies are both 'very exciting' and 'very scary'.

 

[Tostada]

Originally posted by: shukusatsu
It's like the guy sat down and watched Ghost in the Shell and some other futuristic sci-fi anime and wrote the article. Not saying what alot of he said won't happen, just an observation.

Dear God, fanboy. People like Norbert Wiener were writing about cybernetics 100 years ago, but you just assume the idea of uploading a consciousness comes from a 1995 manga?

 

[shukusatsu]

Originally posted by: Tostada

Originally posted by: shukusatsu
It's like the guy sat down and watched Ghost in the Shell and some other futuristic sci-fi anime and wrote the article. Not saying what alot of he said won't happen, just an observation.

Dear God, fanboy. People like Norbert Wiener were writing about cybernetics 100 years ago, but you just assume the idea of uploading a consciousness comes from a 1995 manga?

No, I didn't assume that at all, it was just a reference, like the one you just made. I'm sorry I didn't reference one of the many things that helped mold the ideas for the reference I brought up. I could also bring up even earlier influences to such ideas in Eastern philosophy and what have it, but that really wasn't the point I was trying to make, which was that these kind of thoughts and ideas are nothing new and that all of the ideas are plausiable. Predicting certain things is not hard, but rather when they will happen. Also, I thought more people would understand the reference I made compared to, let's say, the one you mentioned. Sorry if I offended your devotion to Norbert Wiener.

 

[Tostada]

shukusatsu:

OK then!

And I don't have any devition to Wiener ... not that there's anything wrong with that.