I want to make a open-source crowd-sourced DVR system that automatically creates chapter breaks you can skip to based on the parts that other users have skipped through.
Commercials are meant to fit into 10 or 30 second spots. Tivo nailed commercial skipping 15 years ago by having a 30 second skip button, we don't need a more complicated model. Problem is advertisers freaked out about how easily Tivo destroyed their entire business model, so it turned into a hidden feature:
http://bigmarv.net/how/tivo/tivo-30-second-skip.html
Fast forwarding through commercials is a compromise, you still watch the ad but faster. It also gives the advertisers a CHANCE to get you to watch, like when you see an explosion or celebrity you like in their ad. Or you forget to fast forward because you are distracted, I don't know about you but I feel like they "win" when I accidently watch a DVRed ad.
At some level DVRs have undone the traditional industry business model even without perfect commercial skipping, but not everyone has the talent/content of a HBO or Netflix to move to a new model where the content is SO worthwhile you are willing to deal with a paywall to get at it. Most network television devolved into something you watch when its on back in the 90's, so the entire binge watching craze driven by these new models is something they aren't equipped to handle. Instead the major networks have focused on the only content that is "DVR-proof," like live tv. The cost of rights fees for major sports have skyrocketed since the invention of the DVR, and talent competitions have boomed in a way Ed McMahon would have never dreamed.
The problem is that this type of content (and reality TV) digs the hole even deeper for networks, because unlike all those DVR-killed 90's sitcoms this content isn't worth ANYTHING on syndication/Netflix. Once the next-day water-cooler value is used up and the winner is declared there is nothing left to monetize, while non-major network providers who create serialized cult content on smaller budgets have a guaranteed future revenue stream. You would think the massive sales of DVDs or Netflix rights fees would wake the networks up to this reality, but the truth is many of them sold off their back catalogs years ago for minimal value and therefore they don't have that former success to fall back on.
The end result is a child born in 2015 will probably know what Netflix is before they know what CBS is.
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