Stock market newbie

[Blackjack200]

Bastard!

My best year trading since '01 was actually '08, 2nd best was '07...yet '09 sucked. The irony is that I don't short.

You had your best year of trading in '08 on long positions? That's bizarre. What were in, if you don't mind my asking?

 

[Miramonti]

You had your best year of trading in '08 on long positions? That's bizarre. What were in, if you don't mind my asking?

Depends what part of the day. With the volatility, there were a bazillion opportunities to buy oversold stocks intraday and sell them after they rebound, anywhere from seconds to hours later. This is trading tho, not investing.

What part of the software development do you work on...execution, analysis or trade quantification, risk/position analysis, clearing? Iirc, koing was also a trading software developer.

 

[Blackjack200]

Depends what part of the day. With the volatility, there were a bazillion opportunities to buy oversold stocks intraday and sell them after they rebound, anywhere from seconds to hours later. This is trading tho, not investing.

What part of the software development do you work on...execution, analysis or trade quantification, risk/position analysis, clearing? Iirc, koing was also a trading software developer.

Gotcha, that's the only strategy that tempts me, bear markets seem to reliably overract to bad news. From what I've read, though, it takes fantastic guts and instincts to pull it off.

As for the development, I think you got me mixed up with Crusty. I'm in the 401K industry.

 

[gorcorps]

Yes, Apple and Google look obvious now, but Yahoo and Dell looked pretty obvious recently too, and what happened to them? If it's so obvious, why aren't we all making a killing? Steve Jobs' health is a real concern, and Apple's stock already has a tremendous amount of growth priced into it (as does Google's)

You don't need to stay away, but to pretend you know AAPL or GOOG more than a tech analyst working at a large investment firm is just crazy. Put your money into low cost index funds and you'll be fine.

I never said I knew more than a tech analyst, or anybody for that matter... don't put words in my mouth. I never said it was a sure thing, I said GENERALLY low risk. As in compared to an average company the chances of them dropping is GENERALLY lower, not guaranteed, but generally lower. I'm not sure what you thought my post said, but you inferred some pretty over the top things from it.

 

[Crusty]

Depends what part of the day. With the volatility, there were a bazillion opportunities to buy oversold stocks intraday and sell them after they rebound, anywhere from seconds to hours later. This is trading tho, not investing.

What part of the software development do you work on...execution, analysis or trade quantification, risk/position analysis, clearing? Iirc, koing was also a trading software developer.

Execution! Analysis is left to the traders and their insane Excel sheets.

 

[Miramonti]

Gotcha, that's the only strategy that tempts me, bear markets seem to reliably overract to bad news. From what I've read, though, it takes fantastic guts and instincts to pull it off.

As for the development, I think you got me mixed up with Crusty. I'm in the 401K industry.

Longer term predictions take a lot more guts for me, since there is a lot more time for the unexpected. Guts is important because the trades that feel the hardest emotionally to make are usually the best, and it takes 'guts' to override the raw instinct to do something that feels better. On the other hand, guts can be a function of confidence...the more confidence you have in taking or keeping a position, the less 'guts' it takes because you 'know'. (altho if it doesn't take any 'guts' and is "easy"...its probably 'too easy' and the wrong thing to do, lol.)

(Sorry for the mixup...ADD is my twin brother. )

 

[Miramonti]

Execution! Analysis is left to the traders and their insane Excel sheets.

ie, enabling orders to be routed to 'dark pools' for better prices?

 

[Blackjack200]

I never said I knew more than a tech analyst, or anybody for that matter... don't put words in my mouth. I never said it was a sure thing, I said GENERALLY low risk. As in compared to an average company the chances of them dropping is GENERALLY lower, not guaranteed, but generally lower. I'm not sure what you thought my post said, but you inferred some pretty over the top things from it.

My point is that when you start picking individual stocks, you are essentially going up against professional analysts and hedge funds that know the industry and it's players with superb depth.

What makes Apple low risk? I agree that they are likely to grow, but again, that growth is already priced into the stock.

 

[Crusty]

ie, enabling orders to be routed to 'dark pools' for better prices?

And this is where our conversation comes to a halt

 

[Miramonti]

and this is where our conversation comes to a halt

lol!

 

[satyajitmenon]

ie, enabling orders to be routed to 'dark pools' for better prices?

Shhh..

 

[gorcorps]

My point is that when you start picking individual stocks, you are essentially going up against professional analysts and hedge funds that know the industry and it's players with superb depth.

What makes Apple low risk? I agree that they are likely to grow, but again, that growth is already priced into the stock.

I'm just giving an example... the OP is a beginner so I'm not going to go into hedging, proper diversification, options, etc.

 

[richardycc]

I was doing OK in 08, until all the $hit hit the fan in Sept/Oct 08.

 

[dullard]

What makes Apple low risk? I agree that they are likely to grow, but again, that growth is already priced into the stock.

I tend to agree with you here Blackjack200. Apple is almost at an all time stock price high. People can make money buying high and selling higher. But that is a damn difficult thing to pull off. I really think people buying Apple now missed the boat.

Reasons that I want to stay away from Apple's stock.
1) The price is high, you already missed the big run-up.
2) There isn't any real new technology coming out. There isn't anything surprising that will suddenly make more people flock to Apple. Not unless Apple breaks contracts (which is doable, but costly). Apple releases in the next two years will be just revisions which won't really create much of a stock price boost.
3) The price to earnings ratio is a tad high, meaning it is a good sign to be wary. P/E doesn't mean everything, but it is one piece of the puzzle.
4) Apple preloaded its earnings from the IPhone. Meaning, that Apple will very quickly stop making much profit on it. Earnings may likely take a big hit.
5) I see so many better opportunities out there.

No, I'm not an expert analyst. But I'm no stock moron either. I have a decent track record on my public ATOT stock postings (see my threads on advice to sell AMD at ~$40 then it dropped to ~$3.5, making a 10x profit for anyone following that advice, then I said buy at $7-$8 on its way back up and it hit $10, making a 25% profit for anyone following that advice). Apple is in a similar situation. AMD stock was overbought a few years ago after a good product release, and now Apple is overbought after the iPad release. Apple at $150 would be a good buy, but not at $250.

 

[Blackjack200]

I'm just giving an example... the OP is a beginner so I'm not going to go into hedging, proper diversification, options, etc.

Yeah, re-reading my post, I didn't mean to use that tone. It's just a difference of opinion. Lots of really smart people, including Peter Lynch, agree with you that regular people can "beat the street" for a variety of reasons. In my view, the information asymmetry is just too great.

 

[JS80]

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