SSDs as a successor to Blu-Ray

Railgun

Golden Member
Mar 27, 2010
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Over the last year or so, there have been an increasing amount of threads across various forums asking about the next capacity bump in optical storage. When is blu-ray going to get 100GB? Why hasn't it already? What's the largest cap it can go?

There are two sides of the camp I suppose, those from a pure data perspective and those in the home theater camp. I can't say how many PC users actually use blu-ray regularly, but we're going to discount that for the purposes of this discussion.

On the HT side, my reasoning for wanting higher capacity only stems from one thing. Compression. We all know that, while looking relatively good, every last movie on blu-ray is compressed a lot. While on the audio side, lossless compression has given audiophiles what they may want to hear, videophiles are left with color banding, relatively low bitrate, and now with the sooner than later roll out of 4K, it's simply not going to cut it.

To me, I see an easy solution right in front of us with SSDs. The technology to create a read-only variant is mature enough to do it. You don't need the fastest disks there are, though in some cases it can help.

Uncompressed 4K at 24FPS with an RGB 4:4:4 color space is about 3.8Gbps. At YUV 4:2:2 it drops to 2.5Gpbs. Today's drives can easily cope with that.

About five years ago, a friend and I were taking a serious look into digital theaters. Even then, at the time, a lot of companies were somewhat reluctant to upgrade their theaters with digital projection. Simply for cost reasons. At any rate, at the time, a typical two hour digital movie was about 500GB uncompressed. I'm sure that it's increased a bit since then, but the point that tries to make is that its within the realm of SSD capacity today. Let's just say for the sake of arguement that it's a 10:1 compression ratio to blu-ray. We know it's more than that to account for audio and extra features, but we'll use that for now. You take a 480GB SSD and that's now compressed 1.04:1. Much nicer from a video quality perspective.

As a long term storage medium, I don't know how much of an argument that would really be. As tech overall improves, a whole new media will surely present itself to be smaller, faster, lighter and more resiliant. But in terms of longevity, being a read only disk, you don't need to worry about things like garbage collection, trim, write performance, wear leveling, etc. It's read only.

It's a common interface for all intents and purposes. Those with a HTPC are already equipped to handle it. Get a hot swap bay and you're done. No HW required. A standalone device can easily be created to interface with a HT setup.

As far as packaging, other than the box it comes in, a simple dust cap for the pins and you can simply have the drive itself as the case/box/whatever you want to call it to stack on your shelf.

Now, in reality, I can see this not happening, which is unfortunate. God forbid someone can't sell a blu-ray player for $400 anymore. But for those that want the best possible quality picture (low or no compression), is relatively future proof (at the moment) from a speed and capacity perspective, is small, light, and more durable than an optical disc.

Once the price really comes down, it should be considered a more viable option.

What do you guys think?
 

velillen

Platinum Member
Jul 12, 2006
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A large capacity SSD will never be viable for what you want. I can never see them dropping under the 100 dollar mark and especially not anytime soon. And honestly you'd have to get them down to the 20-30 dollar range for most consumers to even be interested in them.
 

Railgun

Golden Member
Mar 27, 2010
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True to a point. But when you bump up the scale of production, when/if it gets to that point, it may become cheaper. Look at LEDs for example. They were very expensive to make back in the day. Now you have TVs based off variants of that tech. It's all about economies of scale. The SSD market today is geared towards one thing, IT. Compared to quantities of DVD sales, it's tiny. Bump that production up by some magnitude...

That doesn't mean that it will get as low as what a DVD is now, but it's also not going to be the same "low" quality product as that is either. Looking at the difference between DVD and blu-ray shows blu-ray with a 3-5 times higher price than the former. Now we're talking double resolution and no compression. Is twice the price of a blu-ray acceptable?
 

dagamer34

Platinum Member
Aug 15, 2005
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Not viable, simply because of the rise of services like Netflix and Spotify, people don't want to own content, they want to own the access to it. I don't want to have to carry around 100 little SSD chips to watch a movie. I want to be able to log into an account and stream it anywhere. I want to create a local copy to play in a place which has no internet connection. Flexible rights are something pure physical media can't really offer.
 

mmntech

Lifer
Sep 20, 2007
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I still like physical media. The problem with streaming content comes when providers or copyright owners decide to remove access. Which they can do arbitrarily. Physical media can be played as long as working players exist.

Bluray with its faults is still a good format. However, it do think streaming is the future. The problem with SSDs is cost. Optical discs have survived as long as they have because they're dirt cheap to mass produce. They manufacturing methods have been around for over a century, they don't require exotic materials or specialized production staff. SSDs have a relatively high manufacturing cost. Where as a Bluray discs cost a few cents to make, SSDs still cost over a dollar per gigabyte. So for a BD sized card, you're looking at at least $25 optimistically just for the media. Would add significantly to the cost of movies.

Streaming has the advantage of also being dirt cheap. It also allows for easy format shifting. If it's electronic and has a screen, chances are it has a Netflix app for it these days. So hardware limitations are virtually eliminated. It also allows publishers to have near 100% control of the content.
 

ImpulsE69

Lifer
Jan 8, 2010
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I used to think I was a video/audiophile. Then I realized, the differences are just not worth the cost and that I had a life and didn't care as much as I used to. Since the mega corps are essentially controlling how we receive our media, there is no point speculating. They rail against all new forms. Blu-Ray only came out because they couldn't control DVD.

They can't control SSD as a medium, so it will likely never become a medium of choice for video release.

The general acceptance (and low cost) of compressed streaming, makes it even more unlikely. 4k will only be an "option" if they think they can control and profit from it.
 

JackBurton

Lifer
Jul 18, 2000
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81
Not viable, simply because of the rise of services like Netflix and Spotify, people don't want to own content, they want to own the access to it. I don't want to have to carry around 100 little SSD chips to watch a movie. I want to be able to log into an account and stream it anywhere. I want to create a local copy to play in a place which has no internet connection. Flexible rights are something pure physical media can't really offer.

Speak for yourself. I like having control of the media. I also prefer quality over convenience. That's why I when I sit down to watch a movie, it's on BD. Not some highly compressed streamed junk.

As for the future format, I have no idea what they are going to do. The future is 4K. And not only 4K but Peter Jackson is also testing 48fps. And if that becomes the new standard (4K 48fps), you better forget about streaming options.
 
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alkemyst

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Feb 13, 2001
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A large capacity SSD will never be viable for what you want. I can never see them dropping under the 100 dollar mark and especially not anytime soon. And honestly you'd have to get them down to the 20-30 dollar range for most consumers to even be interested in them.

I can see movies going to SSD in our flash drive/thumb drive formats.

Simple 4-16gb SD cards are uber cheap.

In the long term I think all content will be downloadable to media appliances. DRM will control if your download is permanent or even a 24 hour rental.

They said SSD's would never fall to less than $1 a GB for years from now and already we are seeing 0.50/GB regularly.
 

alkemyst

No Lifer
Feb 13, 2001
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Speak for yourself. I like having control of the media. I also prefer quality over convenience. That's why I when I sit down to watch a movie, it's on BD. Not some highly compressed streamed junk.

As for the future format, I have no idea what they are going to do. The future is 4K. And not only 4K but Peter Jackson is also testing 48fps. And if that becomes the new standard (4K 48fps), you better forget about streaming options.

Not really, there is a lot of bandwidth increases in the future. This may be the break the network companies need to get TV to release all its unused RF space.

I foresee in the next 10-20years 1+GB/sec wireless (GIGABYTE not gigabit).

Many people didn't move over to CD's right away because you couldn't copy them easily.
 

lamedude

Golden Member
Jan 14, 2011
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DRAMeXchange has 16GB TLC flash at ~$8. Not cheap compared to <$1 BDs. If you believe Pioneer 500GB BDs are feasible and probably going to be cheaper than 500GB SSDs.
 

the DRIZZLE

Platinum Member
Sep 6, 2007
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DRAMeXchange has 16GB TLC flash at ~$8. Not cheap compared to <$1 BDs. If you believe Pioneer 500GB BDs are feasible and probably going to be cheaper than 500GB SSDs.

In principle for sale of media the memory would only need to be written once. I wonder if that would significantly reduce the cost. Between the rapid evolution of technologies and the competing interests of the different businesses involved it's hard to predict what the future of content distribution will be.
 

the DRIZZLE

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Sep 6, 2007
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Speak for yourself. I like having control of the media. I also prefer quality over convenience. That's why I when I sit down to watch a movie, it's on BD. Not some highly compressed streamed junk.

As for the future format, I have no idea what they are going to do. The future is 4K. And not only 4K but Peter Jackson is also testing 48fps. And if that becomes the new standard (4K 48fps), you better forget about streaming options.

I think the biggest hurdle to 4k in the home is that a lot of people just don't want or have room for a TV large enough to take advantage of the resolution. I do hope they increase frame rates though.
 

JackBurton

Lifer
Jul 18, 2000
15,993
14
81
I think the biggest hurdle to 4k in the home is that a lot of people just don't want or have room for a TV large enough to take advantage of the resolution. I do hope they increase frame rates though.

The other benefits of 4K is that displays using passive 3D will get a full 1080p per eye. But yeah, I agree with you, 70"+ displays are where 4K will be realized. And for projectors, even better. LG is already set to release their 84" 4K 3D set early next year. It will have a steep price tag, but that shouldn't surprise anyone.
 

JackBurton

Lifer
Jul 18, 2000
15,993
14
81
Not really, there is a lot of bandwidth increases in the future. This may be the break the network companies need to get TV to release all its unused RF space.

I foresee in the next 10-20years 1+GB/sec wireless (GIGABYTE not gigabit).

Many people didn't move over to CD's right away because you couldn't copy them easily.

I would love to see 10Gbps (bits per second) connections for every household in the US in 10 yrs to 20 yrs, but I just don't see that happening. Would love to be wrong though.
 
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Railgun

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Mar 27, 2010
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I can see movies going to SSD in our flash drive/thumb drive formats.

Simple 4-16gb SD cards are uber cheap.

In the long term I think all content will be downloadable to media appliances. DRM will control if your download is permanent or even a 24 hour rental.

Though there are obviously larger, the above is only twice the size of a DVD, much too small to meet the requirement of what I`m suggesting. The other issue with SD cards is that they`re still relatively slow.

I still like physical media. The problem with streaming content comes when providers or copyright owners decide to remove access. Which they can do arbitrarily. Physical media can be played as long as working players exist.

Bluray with its faults is still a good format. However, it do think streaming is the future. The problem with SSDs is cost. Optical discs have survived as long as they have because they're dirt cheap to mass produce.
Streaming has the advantage of also being dirt cheap. It also allows for easy format shifting. If it's electronic and has a screen, chances are it has a Netflix app for it these days. So hardware limitations are virtually eliminated. It also allows publishers to have near 100% control of the content.

Keep in mind, SSDs are expensive...for now. They`ve come down a LOT in price over the last couple of years...probably nearly 50%. An OCZ Agility 3 120G is $70 with rebate. That`s 58c/GB! (as of this post on newegg). It`s simply a matter of time and cranking out production to bring that to more than acceptible levels.

As far as streaming goes, there are two issues there. One being the ISPs. With their current infrastructure and business model, they simply can`t support streaming to provide the quality within the context of this thread. It`s all about oversubscription. Think about how your service is affected during "peak" periods. It can barely handle a youtube video, let alone a good HD flick (DSL users are somewhat less affected). Not to mention data caps most ISPs have in place too.

I`ve recently picked up an Apple TV, and while the quality is suprisingly good, it`s still not up to the level of what we`re discussing, let alone the next part...

I think the biggest hurdle to 4k in the home is that a lot of people just don't want or have room for a TV large enough to take advantage of the resolution. I do hope they increase frame rates though.

This is true. And to your point, a 4K TV, while perhaps smaller, will increase the HD resolution for 3D material. Think 1080P at 24FPS per eye. That`s the whole thing behind The Hobbit...but I digress...

For those that want a large TV for the sake of having a large TV, it will also benefit. I`ve only got a 50" now. The next TV will be a 65" at the same viewing distance. There is a rule of thumb that comes into play today between viewing distance and TV size. 4K will decrease that a bit.

Generally speaking, there`s nothing that says USB drives, SD cards, even the new QXD cards won`t fit the bill, but today, SSDs are the fastest device there that can handle the bitrates I`m talking about. The rest can`t touch it.
 
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Modelworks

Lifer
Feb 22, 2007
16,240
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Nope SSD will not be the path content makers use. The chosen path with all the studios so far seems to be cloud based storage and licensing to users for the content. Fast internet isn't everywhere but it is getting there and by the time bluray isn't needed the move to cloud based content will likely be fairly common.

It is possible that services like redbox will switch to a download option. Bring your own drive and the content is downloaded from the kiosk. There are TPM devices that could be incorporated to erase the content after the viewing.
 

Railgun

Golden Member
Mar 27, 2010
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I think the quality vs convenience point is being muddled. Blu-ray was done for quality. It was the next step keeping with an already familiar format. DVD wasn't getting any larger from a capacity perspective hence HD-DVD/Blu-Ray. The move to DVD/digital from VHS/analog, while not a quantum leap in video quality, was the natural evolution of the industry. I'm suggesting that blu-ray can't keep up with how quickly the industry is moving.

Online content will not go away. I agree with that. But don't confuse fast, cheap access with quality. You'll never have those three things together. I'm strictly suggesting a physical format for high quality source material. Perhaps some other flash based tech will meet the need, but it's not there yet.

I'm also not talking about some SSD competing with a blu-ray disc. Again, from a capacity perspective, it's apples and oranges. BR-R is about $.07-ish per GB. A far fry cheaper than the most cost effective SSD, but again, SSDs aren't mass produced as BR discs are. That's a huge key point and not to be taken out of context.

I'm curious to know how many here don't actually have any physical copies of anything. I'd be willing to bet those are the ones that don't care about quality of what they're watching.
 

Modelworks

Lifer
Feb 22, 2007
16,240
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I think the quality vs convenience point is being muddled. Blu-ray was done for quality. It was the next step keeping with an already familiar format. DVD wasn't getting any larger from a capacity perspective hence HD-DVD/Blu-Ray. The move to DVD/digital from VHS/analog, while not a quantum leap in video quality, was the natural evolution of the industry. I'm suggesting that blu-ray can't keep up with how quickly the industry is moving.

The industry isn't moving though, in fact it is stagnant right now. Production of LCD displays has slowed as has bluray players because the demand has shrunk to all time lows. People have LCD , they have players, and there is little they can do to make people want to buy newer models. 3d has flopped as a sales item and that has hurt a lot of manufacturers that invested a lot of capital in making it work at home.
 

Railgun

Golden Member
Mar 27, 2010
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4k will move it and it's closer than people realize.

2011 saw a .3% drop in global sales last year. Not drastic by any stretch. 2012 may drop more but they are still selling. 247 million TVs in 2011. That's still a lot. Dropping or not.

3D is...well...when movies are shot in 3D and not conversions, then we'll see what happens. The price premium that they charge isn't necessarily worth it. I'll grant you that it needs to change. But that's a different matter altogether.
 

sm625

Diamond Member
May 6, 2011
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3.8Gbps is just complete crackhead nonsense. No human being is capable of processing anywhere near that kind of data, or even 1/100th of it. An $18 flash drive contains enough capacity and speed to stream any film up to 4K with decent near lossless compression. You have to keep in mind that at 4k res you can compress the everloving crap out of a video and will have a very hard time telling that you did anything to it.

I guarantee there is no one on earth who can tell the difference between a 2 hour RAW 4k video and a 2 hour 4k film that was squeezed onto a 32GB flash drive, even if we actually had the hardware and software to play it.
 

Red Squirrel

No Lifer
May 24, 2003
70,767
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To me they need to stop screwing around with optical media formats. DVD, HD-DVD,bluray.. STOP! The movie industry is complaining that no one buys movies anymore, well guess what, stop changing the formats forcing people to buy a new player each time, it's sure not helping the situation.

That said I think the concept of physical media for movies should be phased out. What the movie industry needs to do is let people download the movies for a fee. That's what people want, well give it to them. No DRM and crap like that, just a straight download. You pay 5-10 bucks or whatever, login to your account, and the movie is available. Give very fast speeds compared to torrents and people will pay for it as much as they currently pay for physical movies.

Of course it's never going to happen.
 

Anarchist420

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Feb 13, 2010
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I think physical media sales are generally not the way of the future, but I want an option for lossless for everything (I know I'm not going to get it, but I'm just saying it would be nice for people who like everything as close to the original recordings as possible). I still like having a good DVD drive because a lot of games that had CDDA audio or wav files and that were digitally archived can now only be purchased with lossy audio due the govt taking mega upload down. New games seldom use lossless audio, but many older games did.

Also, a problem with SSDs is that they'd be too expensive if they were SLCs which they would should be for movies. I didn't buy an SSD because the SLC ones are too expensive.

As for there not being enough bandwidth in enough areas, that would cease to be a problem if there were no regulation of the internet and no IP.
 

Railgun

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Mar 27, 2010
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3.8Gbps is just complete crackhead nonsense. No human being is capable of processing anywhere near that kind of data, or even 1/100th of it. An $18 flash drive contains enough capacity and speed to stream any film up to 4K with decent near lossless compression. You have to keep in mind that at 4k res you can compress the everloving crap out of a video and will have a very hard time telling that you did anything to it.

I guarantee there is no one on earth who can tell the difference between a 2 hour RAW 4k video and a 2 hour 4k film that was squeezed onto a 32GB flash drive, even if we actually had the hardware and software to play it.

First, the rate I gave was the actual bitrate for an uncompressed stream in the color space indicated. Nothing more. Does the thing need to spit data out that fast? Probably not. Second, if it's lossless, then I'll be more interested, but today, it's not. Next, if I can tell you that there's compression being seen on a current blu-ray, I guarantee you that I will see it more so compressing twice the resolution in the same amount of space. HW and SW to play it is irrelevant as it already exists. How well it can decode it is another question. Another point is the color space. Blu-ray is NOT lossless. It's lossy. The color space is 4:2:0 which is interpolating a lot of data. Not as much as it could and it does a good job, but...

...lastly, if YOU can't see the difference, you're missing the point of this thread and not part of what it targets.

That said I think the concept of physical media for movies should be phased out. What the movie industry needs to do is let people download the movies for a fee. That's what people want, well give it to them. No DRM and crap like that, just a straight download. You pay 5-10 bucks or whatever, login to your account, and the movie is available. Give very fast speeds compared to torrents and people will pay for it as much as they currently pay for physical movies.

Of course it's never going to happen.

I would agree if thge ISPs were able to meet the demand that it would cause.

I think physical media sales are generally not the way of the future, but I want an option for lossless for everything (I know I'm not going to get it, but I'm just saying it would be nice for people who like everything as close to the original recordings as possible). I still like having a good DVD drive because a lot of games that had CDDA audio or wav files and that were digitally archived can now only be purchased with lossy audio due the govt taking mega upload down. New games seldom use lossless audio, but many older games did.

Also, a problem with SSDs is that they'd be too expensive if they were SLCs which they would should be for movies. I didn't buy an SSD because the SLC ones are too expensive.

As for there not being enough bandwidth in enough areas, that would cease to be a problem if there were no regulation of the internet and no IP.

You hit exactly on some points. I'm not suggesting that this is for everyone and everything, rather an evolution of blu-ray currently is.

As for your last point, what do you mean? Are you saying IP as in Internet Protocol? If so, how would that address the bandwidth problem?