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SSD Shipments and WW Forecast

I

Idontcare

Elite Member
SSDShipmentsandWWForecast.gif


I am not too surprised that 2009 shipments were less than 2008 considering that NAND prices literally doubled (and then some) last year, but I was really surprised to see what a minor percentage of the overall NAND market SSD's represent.

I was definitely thinking SSD's with their GB's and GB's of storage were using up much more of the TAM for NAND.

Definitely goes to show that SSD's (and the demand for them) are not what drives NAND prices, it is very much the other way around.
 
There are some inconsistencies. Flash memory devices use NAND. They keep getting cheaper. Seems to me that SSDs are simply marked up to defray R&D & tooling costs to produce them, and they are dropping as well.
 
But wow! they expect the percentage used by SSDs to jump from 10< to >50 percent of the overall use in just the next few years. At the same time, much more NAND will be used, of which that is only a percentage.

I guess everyone and their dog will be getting an SSD- even tweakboy will buy one in 2013. Hmmm... I thought the world was gonna end in 2012.
 
FishAk said:
I guess everyone and their dog will be getting an SSD- even tweakboy will buy one in 2013. Hmmm... I thought the world was gonna end in 2012.
Click to expand...

Actually you have it mixed up. The world is going to end when Tweakboy buys an SSD! If you read his post, you know it all hinges on him!

🙂 We should all chip in and buy him a 60gb SSD just to enjoy his posts on the subject!
 
FishAk said:
But wow! they expect the percentage used by SSDs to jump from 10< to >50 percent of the overall use in just the next few years. At the same time, much more NAND will be used, of which that is only a percentage.

I guess everyone and their dog will be getting an SSD- even tweakboy will buy one in 2013. Hmmm... I thought the world was gonna end in 2012.
Click to expand...

FishAk I think you are mistaking the graph, the blue line goes with the y-axis on the right-hand side and represents % of NAND market.

Right now it is <3% and not expected to exceed 8% through 2013.
 
If I read that graph right they're selling less than 10k "units" per year right now? If units means drives (and what else in that context?) that sounds highly unlikely to me.
 
Oh... I guess I was just looking at the pretty picture. I didn't notice I was looking at units. It made more sense when I thought it was percentage, but ya... Like Voo says... something looks fishy.
 
Idontcare said:
SSDShipmentsandWWForecast.gif


I am not too surprised that 2009 shipments were less than 2008 considering that NAND prices literally doubled (and then some) last year, but I was really surprised to see what a minor percentage of the overall NAND market SSD's represent.

I was definitely thinking SSD's with their GB's and GB's of storage were using up much more of the TAM for NAND.

Definitely goes to show that SSD's (and the demand for them) are not what drives NAND prices, it is very much the other way around.
Click to expand...

I'd say it's phones, PMPs and cameras that are pushing NAND prices up. Mostly phones.
 
I bet you are right, what is the world market for phones, a billion/year or so? Thats got to use up a few NAND chips 🙂
 
corkyg said:
Then why are so many of those devices getting cheaper?
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Could be because there's a couple of leading memory makers that'd like to have a high market share in SSD. Maybe they are sacrificing profit margin now based upon the high growth rate in SSD sales predicted for the next few years. The SSD market has been pretty flat the last three years and maybe memory makers think it'll improve like in those charts.
 
corkyg said:
Then why are so many of those devices getting cheaper?
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You mean phones and PMPs? I think maybe the NAND Flash cost is just a fraction of the BOM. But it most cases the sticker price's biggest component is just intellectual property and profit. I mean an iPhone costs I think $200 in BOM or less, but it sells for $600-800.
 
No, I mean things that are more closely related to SSDs - the subject of the thread. We're focusing on the basic cost drivers for SSDs. Examples are photo media dvices, thumb drives, etc. They are pretty much analogous to SSDs as far as NAND use goes. There is very little of what is commonly called intellectual property in such devices.
 
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corkyg said:
No, I mean things that are more closely related to SSDs - the subject of the thread. We're focusing on the basic cost drivers for SSDs. Examples are hoto media dvices, thumb drives, etc. They are pretty much analogous to SSDs as far as NAND use goes. There is very little of what is commonly called intellectual property in such devices.
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I see what you mean, while we might not go so far as to suggest price collusion amongst SSD sellers (as that implies intent to price-fix) it does seem a skosh suspect that price changes have stagnated and no one really seems all that interested in dropping prices to compete.

We had that initial price-shock period when anything with a j-micron controller in it couldn't be priced low enough to clear out inventories, but the advent of Indilinx and then Sandforce controllers certainly mitigated that price disparity and yet no price wars...
 
Idontcare said:
We had that initial price-shock period when anything with a j-micron controller in it couldn't be priced low enough to clear out inventories, but the advent of Indilinx and then Sandforce controllers certainly mitigated that price disparity and yet no price wars...
Click to expand...
I had a hell of a time convincing my boss to buy a Vertex 2 for my work computer just a few months ago (July) because they were $400+. You can now buy them for close to $200. I don't know what crack you guys are smoking 😉, but there is most definitely some price droppage in the league of what I would call pricing wars going on.

To address corky's point: consumer devices use a different caliber of NAND than SSDs do, so it seems to me there's very little correlation/competition in that market compared to the SSD market. The more people that make NAND the cheaper it's going to get; the longer they make it, the better they get at it (process refinement) so the cheaper it's going to get; the longer its been on the market the more R&D will have been recouped, so the cheaper it's going to get. Etc. etc.
 
Part of the price drop is that Intel/Micron started up their new 25nm fabs and kicked into high gear. So everyone is now clearing out the old stuff for the new 25nm products from Intel/Mircron & Samsung. And to top if off Intel will be compeating with larger drives against everyone else's standard size SSDs.
 
LokutusofBorg said:
I had a hell of a time convincing my boss to buy a Vertex 2 for my work computer just a few months ago (July) because they were $400+. You can now buy them for close to $200. I don't know what crack you guys are smoking 😉, but there is most definitely some price droppage in the league of what I would call pricing wars going on.

To address corky's point: consumer devices use a different caliber of NAND than SSDs do, so it seems to me there's very little correlation/competition in that market compared to the SSD market. The more people that make NAND the cheaper it's going to get; the longer they make it, the better they get at it (process refinement) so the cheaper it's going to get; the longer its been on the market the more R&D will have been recouped, so the cheaper it's going to get. Etc. etc.
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I can't speak to Vertex 2, but the 160GB G2 that I bought for $400 in March is still $400 here in Nov.

If vertext 2 fell in price 50% in the past 2 months then that is good news.
 
Idontcare said:
I can't speak to Vertex 2, but the 160GB G2 that I bought for $400 in March is still $400 here in Nov.
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I can top that! Back then in september (uh horrible memory for those things, but I installed win7 right then, so around ~20sept) 358€ for my 160gb G2 and right now the cheapest is 359€, so at least Intel drives got not cheaper last year over here.

But for almost every other manufacterer prices sure fell - no idea how Intel can keep prices up although they lose to SF/Crucial drives in every performance metric.. ok they had some big price cuts when they released the G2 drives.
 
Idontcare said:
I can't speak to Vertex 2, but the 160GB G2 that I bought for $400 in March is still $400 here in Nov.

If vertext 2 fell in price 50% in the past 2 months then that is good news.
Click to expand...
Yep. I've been noticing that with the Intels too... no price change whatsoever and they're not competitive on price at all with the other SSDs out there. I wonder if they're still generating sales with their halo marketing effect of whenever it was that they "Conroed" the SSD market.

You know what they say... CTO never gets fired for buying IBM/Intel/whatever.
 
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