Sports Simulator?

[02ranger]

OK, I was talking to a friend yesterday and he had an idea to make some money. He wants to design a computer program that will predict the outcome of various sporting events and then gamble on said events in Las Vegas. The plan is to enter a bunch of stats on the teams and run a simulation from that, also including variables such as home/away, weather conditions, day/night, etc... He brought it up to me because he believes I'm really good with computers and should know how to do this. FYI, he has VASTLY overestimated my skills. lol. It's funny how being able to map a networked drive at work or general troubleshooting translates to mad programming skills for most people. I am curious though what kind of programming language would be best to use to try something like this. I have a very, very basic idea of how to make the simulator run, just not how to write it or implement it. I really don't think this is likely to work but it sounds like a fun experiment at the least.

 

[Rastus]

There is a multi-billion dollar industry for such programs. I'm sure every bookie worth his salt in the world is running one. Probably even some supercomputers taking a crack at it.

As an independant, you're best bet is probably to just use Excel. Good luck.

 

[yllus]

Prolog or some other language mostly based around fact/rule definition maybe. Keep in mind that this is a completely lost cause because there are tens of thousands of variables, some you will never have access to, that you need to compute to figure this out.

 

[gorcorps]

How do you think they come up with the odds?

 

[Gibson486]

You can do that in any language....but I am guessing that it would be a lost cause too....

Also, EA does thing every year where it simulates a season. I am guessing that it probably going to be as accurate as you can get...

 

[darkxshade]

you wann roll your money into a ball?

 

[Red Squirrel]

Your best bet is to look for patterns and percentages of actions (ex: how often does a certain player get the puck passed to them, how often they score etc) then you can probably simulate game plays. Though it may be easier to just load up the correct player lineups in a EA game and run a simulation there. Though I'm not sure if those are completely randomized or based on the actual players' stats.

I'd use whatever language you are the most familiar with.

 

[Rastus]

How do you think they come up with the odds?

They start early, probably with a simple stat dataset, then modify the odds paramutually as the event nears so they are always assured to profit.

 

[MayorOfAmerica]

I developed a program for horse racing using certain factors I believe to be relevant as inputs into a neural net. It's not a simulation and more of a tool to help me figure out fair odds, since picking winners isn't all that hard. Picking winners at better than fair odds is how you make money in that realm since you're destined to lose a bit. From my experience, I can tell you that a lot of stats are probably just noise, and weeding through that noise is the toughest part.

 

[02ranger]

I honestly thought it was a lost cause myself. I mean, if it were an easy, sure thing then everybody would do it. It would be fun to try though. I think if we do it it'll be in an excel spreadsheet. You could get some fairly reliable results from a spreadsheet I think.

Thanks for the replies!

 

[Flash1969]

little out of date, but close to what you're talking about
http://www.whatifsports.com/nfl/default.asp#top

 

[rayfieldclement]

What about John Madden Football The game?