Discussion Speculation: Zen 4 (EPYC 4 "Genoa", Ryzen 7000, etc.)

[Vattila]

Except for the details about the improvements in the microarchitecture, we now know pretty well what to expect with Zen 3.

The leaked presentation by AMD Senior Manager Martin Hilgeman shows that EPYC 3 "Milan" will, as promised and expected, reuse the current platform (SP3), and the system architecture and packaging looks to be the same, with the same 9-die chiplet design and the same maximum core and thread-count (no SMT-4, contrary to rumour). The biggest change revealed so far is the enlargement of the compute complex from 4 cores to 8 cores, all sharing a larger L3 cache ("32+ MB", likely to double to 64 MB, I think).

Hilgeman's slides did also show that EPYC 4 "Genoa" is in the definition phase (or was at the time of the presentation in September, at least), and will come with a new platform (SP5), with new memory support (likely DDR5).

What else do you think we will see with Zen 4? PCI-Express 5 support? Increased core-count? 4-way SMT? New packaging (interposer, 2.5D, 3D)? Integrated memory on package (HBM)?

Vote in the poll and share your thoughts!

 

[igor_kavinski]

- CPU+VCN/VCE H264, 40 seconds

- CPU+VCN/VCE H265, 30 seconds

Amazing that the better, more intensive H265 gets done faster.

 

[jamescox]

The same was true of Zen2 and Zen1/+, considering that the 16C parts will probably clock higher than 32C it's fairly likely to be the case for SIMD heavy workloads.

I think Zen 4 is going to be a pretty big jump with the new process, significantly enhanced architecture, and new platform / memory. I have to wonder if there is really that much time to sell Zen 3 with v-cache before Zen 4 comes. I guess it will be kind of a fall back if DDR5 is still scarce, but how many people would want to buy into a dead end socket with DDR4? I certainly want to wait for next gen with DDR5 now. Also, the demand for Milan will not go away for a while. Sourcing Milan processors still seems to be difficult for some SKUs.

 

[RnR_au]

I have to wonder if there is really that much time to sell Zen 3 with v-cache before Zen 4 comes. I guess it will be kind of a fall back if DDR5 is still scarce, but how many people would want to buy into a dead end socket with DDR4?

The 5800X3D is for cpu upgraders. Those that are happy with their setup and DDR4. Especially those that are still on Ryzen 2000 and 3000 series. Very tidy upgrade that will give them years of great performance.

Think of it as an AMD marketing campaign. "Trust our sockets. We'll look after you for a long time." Its one of the primary differentiators with Intel.

 

[Saylick]

The 5800X3D is for cpu upgraders. Those that are happy with their setup and DDR4. Especially those that are still on Ryzen 2000 and 3000 series. Very tidy upgrade that will give them years of great performance.

Think of it as an AMD marketing campaign. "Trust our sockets. We'll look after you for a long time." Its one of the primary differentiators with Intel.

Seeing as how it's almost March and Zen 4 allegedly launches in Q3, the 5800X3D needs to launch within the next 2 months or else it just feels like it's launching too close to Zen 4. Furthermore, the price needs to be competitive as well and not some kind of halo product, because it won't be. I still think $500 is too much for a 5800X3D. It really ought to be $449 max, but ideally Zen 3 comes down in price too.

 

[Thunder 57]

Amazing that the better, more intensive H265 gets done faster.

AMD didn't seem to put much time into h264. IIRC it's no faster than my 2600X using an RX 5700 for VCE. h265 is a much different story.

 

[soresu]

AMD didn't seem to put much time into h264. IIRC it's no faster than my 2600X using an RX 5700 for VCE. h265 is a much different story.

H264/AVC was designed further back though, and these days encoding it is very well optimised on x264 with even a halfway decent CPU.

At the time Apple/Quicktime first started using it for trailers you couldn't even decode a 720p video without severe frame drops on a state of the art CPU.

I'd imagine that the compute complexity of H265/HEVC was similar at its time of release relative to the CPUs at the time.

That being said HEVC benefitted much from inherently better parallel encoding techniques built into the standard - so many core CPUs like Threadripper can encode even 4K no problem with x265 using chunked encoding.

 

[lobz]

Why are you believing they are fully truthful now? It won't be the first time they mislead, witness the 10nm multi-year fiasco.

No. Everything is on track. Always.

 

[scineram]

Previously I considered 20% or above IPC increase for Zen 4 as an evolution of the Zen 3 arch unrealistic. With Zen 3+ showing around 10% increase going from DDR4 to DDR5 I now think it's quite possible.

 

[deasd]

Seeing as how it's almost March and Zen 4 allegedly launches in Q3, the 5800X3D needs to launch within the next 2 months or else it just feels like it's launching too close to Zen 4. Furthermore, the price needs to be competitive as well and not some kind of halo product, because it won't be. I still think $500 is too much for a 5800X3D. It really ought to be $449 max, but ideally Zen 3 comes down in price too.

There's a forecast about price of 5800X3D:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498699871372541952

 

[DrMrLordX]

There's a forecast about price of 5800X3D:

I think we can also safely say that Raphael is not launching in April.

 

[Spydermag68]

I know that Zen 4 has a new socket, but I am wondering about the mounting points for coolers. I am going to build Zen 4 computer and buying parts through out the year.

 

[xilli_fiberbit]

The actual coolers made for AM4 will be compatible with AM5, the mounting points are unchanged

 

[eek2121]

Seeing as how it's almost March and Zen 4 allegedly launches in Q3, the 5800X3D needs to launch within the next 2 months or else it just feels like it's launching too close to Zen 4. Furthermore, the price needs to be competitive as well and not some kind of halo product, because it won't be. I still think $500 is too much for a 5800X3D. It really ought to be $449 max, but ideally Zen 3 comes down in price too.

The first batches of the 5800X3D have already shipped, so they should become available sometime this month. Zen 4 could launch any time between July - September. The 5800X3D will still be sold and will be a viable option well into the lifecycle of Zen 4. It is meant as an upgrade option for users that don't want to upgrade their motherboard, CPU, and memory.

 

[LightningZ71]

It's also a great place to dump CCD stacks that don't qualify for MilanX for any reason.

 

[Mopetar]

It's also a great place to dump CCD stacks that don't qualify for MilanX for any reason.

Wouldn't they be able to test the chiplet and cache dies prior to bonding them?

I'm thinking that these would be chosen specifically for the desktop parts.

 

[xilli_fiberbit]

So no yield issues with TSMC N3E, but it's different node compared to N3 :

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499743238970028034

 

[igor_kavinski]

60% denser than 5nm. Woohoo!

 

[xilli_fiberbit]

N3E is a different node from the original N3, i don't know what coming to N3 then

 

[jpiniero]

They are cutting density with N3E??? That's a new one.

 

[Vattila]

N3E is a different node from the original N3

Anyone know whether TSMC has stated anything about design compatibility with plain N3? According to AnandTech's report in October, they had not commented on it:

"With N3, the company will be changing their tactics somewhat, and will introduce a node called N3E, which can be considered as an enhanced version of N3. This process node will introduce an improved process window with performance, power, and yield enhancements. [...] TSMC has not commented on whether N3E will be compatible with N3's design rules, design infrastructure, and IPs."

TSMC RoadMap Update | AnandTech | 2021-10-18

Edit: Tom's Hardware now has an update on this news:

TSMC’s N3E Will Reportedly Enter Production Ahead of Schedule | Tom's Hardware (tomshardware.com)

 

[moinmoin]

They are cutting density with N3E??? That's a new one.

If you need to salvage something you go backward.

 

[Doug S]

So looks like Apple will end up skipping N3 in favor of N3E given the Q2 23 ramp, which matches TSMC's ramps for everything else except N3.

We'll have to see if they can get N2 back on Q2 cadence for Apple. It is supposedly 2023 for risk production, but if that's Q4 it won't make mass production in time.

 

[Ajay]

So looks like Apple will end up skipping N3 in favor of N3E given the Q2 23 ramp, which matches TSMC's ramps for everything else except N3.

We'll have to see if they can get N2 back on Q2 cadence for Apple. It is supposedly 2023 for risk production, but if that's Q4 it won't make mass production in time.

Is N2 GAA?

 

[Kepler_L2]

Is N2 GAA?

Not officially announced yet but almost certainly is.

 

[deasd]

This is not related to Zen4, but...

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499964245307367424

does this imply Zen4 don't have (enough) low end model, due to DDR5 cost? So that these cheap AM4 SKUs are to fill the gap in this segment?