Sound reasoning, but it doesn't answer at all what's up with the extended WSA between GloFo and AMD. An additional $1.4 billion until 2024 when it was widely thought that the WSA would run out and not be renewed in 2021. Did the WSA turn into a poisonous pill for GloFo instead AMD, securing 14/12nm Fin production for AMD until 2024 while GloFo wanted to convert those fabs earlier?
The WSA via pre-orders only has secured 14nm/12nm Fin production up to 2023. Which is the year where GlobalFoundries will be increasing 45nm&12nm FD production at Malta.
AMD relationship with GloFo is in the know. So, any changes to GloFo's plans would be forwarded ahead of time to AMD. In this scenario, with all info gathered, AMD would transfer EPYC/Ryzen/V&R-series away to TSMC. While reviving Opteron(cost-effective Datacenter), Sempron(cost-effective Personal Computing), G-series(cost-effective Embedded and Other via SCBU). This also includes GlobalFoundries getting the low-end GPU market again.
2022 = Fin production(1st-half+2nd-half), AMD's FDSOI locks in development(2nd-half)
2023 = Fin production goes down to zero(2nd-half), AMD's FDSOI ramps to production(2nd-half)
2024/2025 = Only FDSOI production via AMD at GF going forward.
Began 28nm production at ~$6000 USD(2014) => Enter 22nm production at ~$2000 USD(2024)
With 14nm/12nm Fin being stuck at ~$4000 USD(2022+) for AMD, with the price hike to others pushing it to Samsung's/TSMC's near~$5500 USD levels.
Higher capacity, lower costs for AMD, and lower masks, process steps for GloFo => shorter lead times, and higher profit margins for both with FDX.
TSMC handles premium and higher ASP => better deals and more funding for enhanced FinFETs
GloFo handles cost-sensitive and lower ASP => more stable manufacturing capacity for FDSOI
Lower ASP is given by the lower price point from introduction of 28nm&/14nm at $6000-2014&$8000-2017 USD. Given same area in a mature insert means lower price point for similar performance to 14nm, lower power to 14nm, reduced cost of development(AMD&SCBU) and reduced TTM, etc.
TSMC gained the LP-patent set from GlobalFoundries anyway:
The companies have agreed to a broad life-of-patents cross-license to each other’s worldwide existing semiconductor patents as well as those patents that will be filed during the next ten years as both companies continue to invest significantly in semiconductor research and development.
12LP/7LP/5LP/3LP plans that AMD was aware of is better implemented by TSMC. Money$$$, Multiple Node technicians, multiple fab modules, multi-continent 16nm/12nm/5nm offshore fabs known, etc.
The above specifically: Technology research covering 14nm, 10nm, 7nm, 5nm, 3nm CMOS Finfet technologies for mobile SoC/ASIC. <== Left GF in 2017
GlobalFoundries has yet to implement SSRW High Mobility FinFETs as per 2016-IEEE for 7nm/5nm FinFETs and 2019-IEEE for 14nm/12nm FinFETs. Which AMD might be using if they switch to TSMC, rather than stay at GloFo. In this case, AMD is likely to get a semi-custom customer that wants to add networking accelerators to a Zen++ SoC on TSMC, or whatever. Which Zen++ would be the cheapest option of Zen architectures at TSMC.
A move from GloFo to TSMC is more secure given Zen's market and largely unsuccessful GlobalFoundries SCBU. If they were at TSMC, they wouldn't have failed.
GlobalFoundries FinFET = Ghost Town, one module that was exclusive to FinFETs and is now in transition to FDSOI.
TSMC FinFET = Growing Metropolis, several modules, includes Japan FinFET and Dresden FinFET fabs (and Nanjing FinFET fab), with extension of Arizona FinFET fab.
There is also a better trend of support of custom Zen core implementations at TSMC.
Zen & Dhyana at GlobalFoundries, pretty much in the decay of demand for Zen(preference of TSMC killing Zen-GloFo) and Dhyana is dead.
Zen2, Zen2-Sony, Zen3, Zen4, Zen4c... why not add more on 16nm/12nm.
On the IOD argument, TSMC is more experienced on the I/O FET. So, naturally TSMC's IOD will be superior to GlobalFoundries' IOD.
Basically, everyone is abandoning 14LPP/12LP/12LP+, for TSMC 16FF/12FF or Samsung 14LPP/14LPU/11LPU. However, some customers are simply doing 84CPP-7.5T on 12nm-Fin to go to 84CPP-7.5T on 12nm-FDX; FDXcelerator fast-track. Giving more credence that GlobalFoundries will swiftly down ramp(killing FinFETs) once a replacement node pops up. By the way, 12FDX is definitely doing some form of risk production this year.
Fab8 Device Director 14LPP/12LP/12LP+/12FDX/45RF
Successful technologies deliverables : 45RF | 12FDSOI | 12LP FINFET | Silicon Photonics
Malta 12FDX integration for 1 year 2 months (at edit: Jan 2021-Present)
Malta 12FDX FEOL/MOL process optimization for 2 years 8 months (at edit: August 2019-Present)
Malta/Essex Junction ESD/Latchup development lead for 12LP, 12FDX, 22FDX, and 28SLPe (at edit: June 2021-Present for 12FDX)
Cut extremely short, NPI/NTO(anything new) goes to TSMC if Zen-related; already apparent with RDNAx/CDNAx being TSMC-exclusive as well.
AMD/GlobalFoundries Legacy/Obsolete Big Core/Big CU, etc>> these get moved to TSMC w/ a more aggressive SCBU at TSMC in preparation.
2023+ =>
AMD/GlobalFoundries New/Modern Small Core/Small CU, etc. Separation of node and fab between Little cores(low-cost) and Big cores(premium-cost). Which reflects GlobalFoundries strategy on prioritizing low-cost pervasive semiconductors.