Solved! Speculation: Zen 4 (EPYC 4 "Genoa", Ryzen 7000, etc.)

[Mopetar]

It's a shortage of PMIC power management chip which is needed to build the DDR5 memory module, because this chip is not anymore on motherboard with DDR5

I'm not sure it will be too much of an issue as early adopters who will buy expensive DDR5 kits will be more than willing to subsidize the extra cost required to source those components.

Unless AMD surprises all of use by announcing Zen 4/AM5 at CES, Intel will help iron out the early kinks for AMD and having both platforms will do a lot to drive demand and ensure a readily available supply.

 

[Joe NYC]

I'm not sure it will be too much of an issue as early adopters who will buy expensive DDR5 kits will be more than willing to subsidize the extra cost required to source those components.

Unless AMD surprises all of use by announcing Zen 4/AM5 at CES, Intel will help iron out the early kinks for AMD and having both platforms will do a lot to drive demand and ensure a readily available supply.

I think there is close to 0% probability of desktop Zen 4 being introduced early, especially after AMD deprioritized Zen 3D to be after Milan X, even though it was originally supposed to be ahead of the server variants.

Zen 4 will most likely launch with Genoa server chips.

 

[DrMrLordX]

Sorry, I got the painters confused. I meant Rembrandt (not Rafael), which is rumored to be launching in Q1 or H1 2022, on a DDR5 platform...

That incarnation of Rembrandt may not be AM5 though. In fact the AM5 variant may show up after Raphael. The mobile BGA variant will be earlier.

 

[soresu]

That incarnation of Rembrandt may not be AM5 though. In fact the AM5 variant may show up after Raphael. The mobile BGA variant will be earlier.

I agree, unless they started TSMC churning out the chips very early they will be concentrating on laptop sales for at least a few months, though I would not expect Raphael quite early enough for that.

Unless they delay the AM5 platform itself for Raphael I would expect AM5 Rembrandt on shelves by August to September at the latest.

 

[moinmoin]

Will be fun if we see Raphael-H first, with AM5 being later anyway.

 

[jamescox]

I would disagree here. The biggest server OEMs and hyperscalers get their DDR5 without any scalper middlemen, that may plague consumer market.

And it will be just a question of quantities and Milan vs. Genoa breakdown.

Granted, these are different process nodes, but if AMD has a surplus (slow uptake) in one area, it can shift wafers to another area, with insatiable demand - GPUs. Once N31 and N32 are production worthy, AMD can make more of those, since they use different memory...



There is a huge installed base of Intel CPUs users, who were holding out so long for a worthwhile upgrade that they were almost ready to switch to AMD. And AMD gave them a reason (excuse) to stay with Intel - without feeling like an idiot.



AMD has followed a wise strategy of staying in every market they have long term desire to grow in, despite the fact that there are silicon shortages, despite the fact that there is an opportunity cost for staying in market segments (GPUs, consloes for example) that may be le less profitable today than other ones.

In light of that, the retreat from high end of the desktop segment is not outright destruction of one part of AMD's TAM, but it makes is it highly uphill battle to realize more market share in desktop. Full year wasted, until Raphael, Zen 4 is released a year from now.



TLDR of that is AMD could have had a point from a tie in gaming, with Zen3d.

But by postponing the release of Zen 3D, the complete focus of this year's big hardware review season is a big fat L for AMD. And AMD will not recover from the loss by announcing Zen3d desktop when no one is paying attention. It will be a year until we have a similar attention to CPUs with Zen 4 generation release vs. Raptor Lake from Intel.

Another way to look at it, AMD could have still been in gaming leadership with Zen3D (by getting a tie in the reviews) with just a single stack of L3. By early next year, that single stack of L3 may be a yawn. And at this time, AMD / TSMC may not have a solution for the challenge of > 1 layer of V-Cache yet.

If your original point stands that DDR5 will be a problem throughout 2022, and it slows Zen 4 adoption, AMD could benefit from yet another bump to Zen 3 generation, by giving it another upgrade with multiple levels of V-Cache in H2 2022.

But, it is not like the competition is going to be running away, due to DDR5. Sapphire Rapids is DDR5 only, so DDR5 shortage would affect it as much as it would affect Genoa.

If the modules aren’t available, then being a large company doesn’t really help. They are likely to get what little supply is available, but how far will that go? Minimum Genoa configuration may be 12 modules per server for 12 channels memory. I know of companies trying to get regular Milan chips right now and they can’t get them. Also why Threadripper (Zen 3) has been delayed again. Until supply constraints resolve a little bit, there is likely not going to be any new Threadripper.

 

[Joe NYC]

That incarnation of Rembrandt may not be AM5 though. In fact the AM5 variant may show up after Raphael. The mobile BGA variant will be earlier.

Which makes me wonder. If there are supply chain issues for DDR5 DIMMs, does that also mean that LPDDR5 has the same issues?

 

[Joe NYC]

If the modules aren’t available, then being a large company doesn’t really help. They are likely to get little supply is available, but how far will that go? Minimum Genoa configuration may be 12 modules per server for 12 channels memory. I know of companies trying to get regular Milan chips right now and they can’t get them. Also why Threadripper (Zen 3) has been delayed again. Until supply constraints resolve a little bit, there is likely not going to be any new Threadripper.

It seems that the hyperscalers are vacuuming the entire supply of AMD chips.

Confidential computing may be the one area where AMD's lead against Intel is what is causing, the insatiable demand for AMD chips. Milan, Milan X, and soon Genoa.

Google was the first one working with AMD on it, it was announced in summer, and now Microsoft Azure is jumping onboard. Until Intel implements the same instructions in Xeon servers, AMD will be gaining market share.

Just last week, Amazon also added Milan (the last of the big hyperscalers). No news yet on confidential computing from Amazon yet.

So Threadripper 3, 3D and desktop Ryzen 3D are on hold

 

[Markfw]

It seems that the hyperscalers are vacuuming the entire supply of AMD chips.

Confidential computing may be the one area where AMD's lead against Intel is what is causing, the insatiable demand for AMD chips. Milan, Milan X, and soon Genoa.

Google was the first one working with AMD on it, it was announced in summer, and now Microsoft Azure is jumping onboard. Until Intel implements the same instructions in Xeon servers, AMD will be gaining market share.

Just last week, Amazon also added Milan (the last of the big hyperscalers). No news yet on confidential computing from Amazon yet.

So Threadripper 3, 3D and desktop Ryzen 3D are on hold

What is your source for saying those things are on hold ? Please link.

 

[maddie]

What is your source for saying those things are on hold ? Please link.

It's speculation, with some justified reasoning and as the first word in the thread states.

 

[Joe NYC]

What is your source for saying those things are on hold ? Please link.

Google started talking publically about work with AMD on Confidential Computing back in August - September 2020, but nothing was launched until 2021, as far as I can tell:

Confidential GKE Nodes now available in Confidential Computing portfolio | Google Cloud Blog

Google Cloud Confidential Computing is now GA and including Confidential GKE Nodes

cloud.google.com

Beta was announced in July 2021:

Confidential GKE Nodes now available in Confidential Computing portfolio | Google Cloud Blog

Google Cloud Confidential Computing is now GA and including Confidential GKE Nodes

cloud.google.com

Plan is to make it standard on certain instances of their Tau VMs, n2d instance

Microsoft has also been working with AMD for some time, and the preview of the Confidential Computing was announced today.

Public preview: Azure Virtual Machines DCasv5 and ECasv5-series now...

New DCasv5 and ECasv5-series Azure Confidential Virtual Machines are available in public preview

azure.microsoft.com

"Today, we are announcing the public preview of Azure DCasv5/ECasv5 confidential virtual machines (VMs) powered by 3rd Gen AMD EPYC™ processors with SEV-SNP."

 

[Joe NYC]

What is your source for saying those things are on hold ? Please link.

Oh wait, why things are on hold?

Well, there is no Threadripper Zen 3, no Threadripper Zen 3D and no desktop Ryzen 3D. I thought that was quite self evident that these are not available, while Microsoft is already giving clients evaluation access to Milan X VMs on their Azure cloud.

 

[Markfw]

Oh wait, why things are on hold?

Well, there is no Threadripper Zen 3, no Threadripper Zen 3D and no desktop Ryzen 3D. I thought that was quite self evident that these are not available, while Microsoft is already giving clients evaluation access to Milan X VMs on their Azure cloud.

There have been no dates on any of those, so just becuase they are not available when you want them, does not mean they are on hold. You need to specify that you are speculating, or its your opinion.

 

[andermans]

Oh wait, why things are on hold?

Well, there is no Threadripper Zen 3, no Threadripper Zen 3D and no desktop Ryzen 3D. I thought that was quite self evident that these are not available, while Microsoft is already giving clients evaluation access to Milan X VMs on their Azure cloud.

I think since Computex AMD has said Ryzen 3D desktop will be in production in Q4 (and with a clarification from Ian shortly after that the launch would be after, likely in Q1). Now Milan-X has been announced for general availability in Q1 too. Yes Microsoft gives evaluation access, but typically that is still based qualification samples (or based on the initial supply one would build for a GA launch).

I don't see any evidence of desktop Ryzen 3D being on hold/delayed in there.

 

[Joe NYC]

Yes Microsoft gives evaluation access, but typically that is still based qualification samples (or based on the initial supply one would build for a GA launch).

I believe Milan X is final, production silicon (I don't have a link). Also, someone, posted that on Anandech forums.

 

[DrMrLordX]

Unless they delay the AM5 platform itself for Raphael I would expect AM5 Rembrandt on shelves by August to September at the latest.

If that's the case, then Raphael may show up later than AM5 Rembrandt. Which could happen, but that's not what the rumour mill seems to be churning. I was half-expecting AM5 Rembrandt in 2023 . . . but then I've been rather pessimistic lately.

 

[xilli_fiberbit]

What is expected to be announced at CES by AMD :

• ZEN3+ (=Rembrandt)
• ZEN3 3D V-cache
• NAVI24
• NAVI2x laptop

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1462998557917474818

 

[coercitiv]

I think since Computex AMD has said Ryzen 3D desktop will be in production in Q4 (and with a clarification from Ian shortly after that the launch would be after, likely in Q1). Now Milan-X has been announced for general availability in Q1 too. Yes Microsoft gives evaluation access, but typically that is still based qualification samples (or based on the initial supply one would build for a GA launch).

I don't see any evidence of desktop Ryzen 3D being on hold/delayed in there.

The person you're replying to made a big deal out of predicting Zen3D launch in the immediate vicinity of Alder Lake launch.

It did noy matter how many other forumites explained with great effort that AMD messaging was not favorable for such an outcome, everybody else was wrong and only that certain user understood the 3D chess AMD was playing. Time passed, common sense was about to prevail, hence a new narrative was needed to save the day: Zen3Delayed!

So don't bother with self-proclaimed prophets, for them obvious evidence is just the coverup to some other extraordinary finding.

 

[DrMrLordX]

Zen3Delayed!

Don't give AMD's infamously-stupid marketing department ideas.

(okay okay, I kid, AMD won't use that name, but it is a clever use of the Zen3D monicker so you win a cookie)

 

[Joe NYC]

Don't give AMD's infamously-stupid marketing department ideas.

(okay okay, I kid, AMD won't use that name, but it is a clever use of the Zen3D monicker so you win a cookie)

Zen3Dither
Zen3DillyDally

One good thing (for desktop users and gamers) that can come out of the Dithering and Dilly-Dallying is that AMD be under more pressure to release Zen4 Raphael on desktop.

Because if Zen3D was released when it was needed in the market, AMD could have happily sold Zen3D for a year with no pressure to divert N5 capacity to desktop, but with a marketing black eye Zen suffered at hands of Intel Alder Lake, there will be more pressure...

 

[soresu]

What is expected to be announced at CES by AMD :

• ZEN3+ (=Rembrandt)
• ZEN3 3D V-cache
• NAVI24
• NAVI2x laptop

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1462998557917474818

Do we have any idea of CU count for Navi 24 yet?

Anything higher than 20 seems fairly unlikely - especially if it ends up being the GCD for Raphael.

I'm still surprised that NV23 CU count differs from NV22 by only 20%.

 

[soresu]

but with a marketing black eye Zen suffered at hands of Intel Alder Lake, there will be more pressure...

I'd hardly call it a black eye - it was expected that this would happen once Intel finally had capacity available to manufacture non BGA post Skylake µArch CPUs on something better than 14nm+++++++.

Those that were abstaining from buying AMD because of brand loyalty (and I have witnessed many) will rush to buy ADL, those that are more balanced will buy depending on costs and stock availability (or depending on time since last upgrade), and those who follow AMD for brand loyalty will just wait for Zen3D, or Zen4.

If recent news tweets are on point that Zen4 has a pretty sizable slice of the AVX512 instruction set pie then AMD will (in theory, pending compiler fairness) automatically benefit from all the years of work and dev sponsorship money Intel have put into the industry to capitalise on it - as we speak the dav1d encoder is buffing up their AVX512 assembly for AV1 decoding.

 

[jpiniero]

Do we have any idea of CU count for Navi 24 yet?

Anything higher than 20 seems fairly unlikely - especially if it ends up being the GCD for Raphael.

16 and Raphael's IGP is within the IO die so it's likely 6 or less.

 

[Joe NYC]

I'd hardly call it a black eye - it was expected that this would happen once Intel finally had capacity available to manufacture non BGA post Skylake µArch CPUs on something better than 14nm+++++++.

Those that were abstaining from buying AMD because of brand loyalty (and I have witnessed many) will rush to buy ADL, those that are more balanced will buy depending on costs and stock availability (or depending on time since last upgrade), and those who follow AMD for brand loyalty will just wait for Zen3D, or Zen4.

AMD has (or had) an ambition to break out, not be boxed in, in the corner. That takes sustained leadership, so that people change their brand preference to AMD.

If the people, who typically prefer Intel see ADL as leading the charts, they get ADL and they are lost to AMD for another 3, 4, 5 years.

If recent news tweets are on point that Zen4 has a pretty sizable slice of the AVX512 instruction set pie then AMD will (in theory, pending compiler fairness) automatically benefit from all the years of work and dev sponsorship money Intel have put into the industry to capitalise on it - as we speak the dav1d encoder is buffing up their AVX512 assembly for AV1 decoding.

Hopefully, IPC gains for Zen4 will be much broader than AVX512.

 

[jamescox]

The person you're replying to made a big deal out of predicting Zen3D launch in the immediate vicinity of Alder Lake launch.

It did noy matter how many other forumites explained with great effort that AMD messaging was not favorable for such an outcome, everybody else was wrong and only that certain user understood the 3D chess AMD was playing. Time passed, common sense was about to prevail, hence a new narrative was needed to save the day: Zen3Delayed!

So don't bother with self-proclaimed prophets, for them obvious evidence is just the coverup to some other extraordinary finding.

I think it has all been rumors rather than based on any actual statements by AMD. If anyone knows differently, then post a link. I thought the rumors were saying Threadripper 5000 in November. I also heard some rumors of better Milan availability in November, but it seems that may be pushed into next year. I don’t know how long it has been since Zen 3 was released vs. Zen 2 release to Zen 2 based Threadripper release. It seems like it is delayed, which wouldn’t be surprising really.