Discussion Speculation: Zen 4 (EPYC 4 "Genoa", Ryzen 7000, etc.)

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Vattila

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Oct 22, 2004
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Except for the details about the improvements in the microarchitecture, we now know pretty well what to expect with Zen 3.

The leaked presentation by AMD Senior Manager Martin Hilgeman shows that EPYC 3 "Milan" will, as promised and expected, reuse the current platform (SP3), and the system architecture and packaging looks to be the same, with the same 9-die chiplet design and the same maximum core and thread-count (no SMT-4, contrary to rumour). The biggest change revealed so far is the enlargement of the compute complex from 4 cores to 8 cores, all sharing a larger L3 cache ("32+ MB", likely to double to 64 MB, I think).

Hilgeman's slides did also show that EPYC 4 "Genoa" is in the definition phase (or was at the time of the presentation in September, at least), and will come with a new platform (SP5), with new memory support (likely DDR5).

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What else do you think we will see with Zen 4? PCI-Express 5 support? Increased core-count? 4-way SMT? New packaging (interposer, 2.5D, 3D)? Integrated memory on package (HBM)?

Vote in the poll and share your thoughts! :)
 
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Joe NYC

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AMD actually has been talking about this very topic for quite some time, proactively investing in expansion of substrate production. An analyst's take from yesterday:
"we believe AMD is particularly well-positioned from a supply perspective given its strong track record, robust design win pipeline, and proactive supply chain management (e.g. co-investments in ABF substrate capacity)."

Yes, AMD mentioned that even back in April, in their investor call, about their investment in substrate production - substrate production dedicated to AMD.

Intel was talking about their view of the market. It is possible that Intel is slightly underestimating AMD's ability to get substrate, but Intel is seeing such a crunch in Q3 for substrate that it will limit everyone.

Part of it is that even if though there is a good supply of CPUs, if other components for end product are missing, the product can't be sold...

Edit: thanks for the link, good info there.
 
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Joe NYC

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You misunderstand. It doesn't matter if AMD has loads of spare wafers to make tons of this because they're still limited by the slowest part of the process for manufacturing chiplets with v-cache. If they can only process 10 wafers worth of chiplets per day to bond the v-cache then producing more than 10 wafers per day of the cache just means it's piling up waiting for the the slowest production stage.

Do you think TSMC just magically has infinite machines to perform the 3D stacking and bonding process?

I see what you mean, that the bottleneck is the stacking and bonding process. I though you meant that the wafer capacity is the bottleneck.

As far as TSMC capacity for 3D stacking, they are building a huge facility for that, their AP6 facility, and it should have been finished by May (based on the old article I read). That may have been, possibly phase 1.

Latest articles have H2 2021 as the completion date. But that may be for the expansion.

According to some articles, this one single facility will have capacity as much as the other 5 TSMC packaging facilities combined.

TSMC capacity should be way above of what AMD needs for Zen 3D. Like a drop in bucket. So, likely, it is not the bottleneck.
 

Doug S

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As far as TSMC capacity for 3D stacking, they are building a huge facility for that, their AP6 facility, and it should have been finished by May (based on the old article I read). That may have been, possibly phase 1.

Sure but building a large facility still doesn't tell us what the capacity is, or who else may be using it. If Apple's next gen Mac chip uses 3D stacking, for example, that "huge" facility might be mostly dedicated to someone other than AMD. Then you have Nvidia who may see some use for this to allow using multiple smaller dies for improved yield, and who knows what the Bitcoin ASIC OEMs might want to do.
 
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jpiniero

Lifer
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Intel was talking about their view of the market. It is possible that Intel is slightly underestimating AMD's ability to get substrate, but Intel is seeing such a crunch in Q3 for substrate that it will limit everyone.

Intel's Q3 forecast is pretty timid - it's higher than Q3 2020 but slightly lower than Q3 2019. Course some of that might be because Intel's ASPs are going down.
 
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Joe NYC

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Sure but building a large facility still doesn't tell us what the capacity is, or who else may be using it. If Apple's next gen Mac chip uses 3D stacking, for example, that "huge" facility might be mostly dedicated to someone other than AMD. Then you have Nvidia who may see some use for this to allow using multiple smaller dies for improved yield, and who knows what the Bitcoin ASIC OEMs might want to do.

I gave an example. According to one of the articles I read, the newest AP6 packaging facility would have capacity equal to sum of AP1 through AP5 combined.

That is, if I understood it correctly. Sometimes, Google Translated documents fall short of perfect clarity.

As far as I know, as of now, AMD is the leading partner of TSMC for SoIC, so no, nobody is jumping ahead of AMD in the near term. As in right now.

But others will certainly join the 3D stacking fun. That's what TSMC is counting on with such a big 3D packaging investment.

Also, after this AP6 facility, TSMC is adding another one in 2022. Perhaps TSMC wants to gain market share in all phases of packaging.

BTW, as far as other TSMC customers using 3D stacking (and packaging), it all depends on when they made the decision to go with 3D stacking, and from that point there is a considerable amount of time before the product is in full production.
 

Vattila

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Oct 22, 2004
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Sure but building a large facility still doesn't tell us what the capacity is, or who else may be using it. If Apple's next gen Mac chip uses 3D stacking, for example, that "huge" facility might be mostly dedicated to someone other than AMD.

V-Cache was developed by AMD and TSMC in deep collaboration. It is not an off-the-shelf technology. For the productization of the technology to make sense, TSMC is likely to have committed to providing the packaging capacity needed (alternatively, committed to license the required IP to enlisted 3rd-party OSAT companies). It is worth remembering that AMD and TSMC do a lot of work together to bring products to market (as TSMC does with other customers, I'm sure). And on supply commitment, remember, at the launch of AMD's EPYC 2, at the EPYC Horizon event September 2019, TSMC's Head of Global Marketing, Godfrey Cheng, stood on stage promising to provide ample supply:

"The reason why the ramp is such a critical element of a product is that with any product there is a life cycle." Cheng says, "If you cannot deliver a product within a certain timeframe where the demand is hot, we commit the cardinal sin of actually leaving demand on the table, and that’s not what we do."


Since then, TSMC has shown the ability to provide way more capacity than initial projections from AMD. While AMD's financial model aims for 20% CAGR revenue growth, last year AMD started by forecasting 25%, adjusted down to 21% at the height of Covid-19 uncertainty, then up to 31%, then 41%, just to end at 45%, and they started this year at 37%, then adjusted up to 50%, and then further increased that to 60%. I am sure these forecasts are done knowing very well what TSMC can deliver. The rapid growth shows the substantial headroom AMD has had (so far, at least) in their supply agreement with TSMC.
 
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jpiniero

Lifer
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Since then, TSMC has shown the ability to provide way more capacity than initial projections from AMD. While AMD's financial model aims for 20% CAGR revenue growth, last year AMD started by forecasting 25%, adjusted down to 21% at the height of Covid-19 uncertainty, then up to 31%, then 41%, just to end at 45%, and they started this year at 37%, then adjusted up to 50%, and then further increased that to 60%. I am sure these forecasts are done knowing very well what TSMC can deliver. The rapid growth shows the substantial headroom AMD has had (so far, at least) in their supply agreement with TSMC.

Some of that might be price hikes...
 

Vattila

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Oct 22, 2004
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The gross margin was dragged down significantly by the hot new consoles.

I know what you mean — the lower gross margin in the semi-custom segment serving the consoles is counteracting the rising gross margin from the client and server segments — but AMD's overall gross margin has in fact risen every quarter since the introduction of Zen, although very slowly since the console ramp last year. So "held back", not "dragged down", is more correct to say.

1630436258129.png

AMD Gross Margin 2006-2021 | AMD | MacroTrends

However, the semi-custom segment has low operating expenses, since the clients pay for development and marketing, so a lot of the gross profit falls to the bottom line.
 

Saylick

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Wasn't the rumor that at some point AMD was going to release 24-core Ryzen parts but will launch only with 16-cores? 125W for 16-cores for now, then when they drop 24-core models, they'd have the 170W TDP?
 

Saylick

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Why eat into their TR line with a 24 core Ryzen?
Because maybe it offers a more competitive SKU vs Intel, because TR still has the advantage of more IO and memory channels, and also because TR would then occupy a higher tier of product by having a 96-core option? Why does current 16-core Ryzen parts exist when there's also 16-core TRs?
 

DrMrLordX

Lifer
Apr 27, 2000
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TR still has the advantage of more IO and memory channels

In the case of TR Pro, a lot more memory channels. If yields are high enough and demand is high enough, though, AMD may just wind up selling most of its CCDs in EPYC and starve all the other parts of their product lineup.
 
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Thunder 57

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Because maybe it offers a more competitive SKU vs Intel, because TR still has the advantage of more IO and memory channels, and also because TR would then occupy a higher tier of product by having a 96-core option? Why does current 16-core Ryzen parts exist when there's also 16-core TRs?

I wonder how well they sell though, unless you really need the extra I/O, which is very much possible. But at that point you are investing a lot into the platform so why not go for a 24 core model instead? Depends on your workload for sure.

So I half assed it and just looked at Newegg, and they don't even offer 16 core TR. Seems they only bother with 24+. Not saying there isn't a market for 16 core TR, just doesn't seem to be very large.

Also, what if AMD plays the "Segmentation Game" a bit more like Intel has done forever, and doesn't offer a 96 core TR? Not to mention AMD seems to care about TR less and less as there is still no Zen 3 ones available. Not sure how it will all play out. At least we get to talk about CPU's again :)
 
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A///

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The 16c TR is a TR Pro. Those are about $1,100 online. There's a distinct segmentation between TR/TR Pro and regular Ryzen. The issue with TR Zen 3 coming out so late makes me want to say it was due to the pandemic and sky rocketing console APU sales. TR Zen 2 came out months after Ryzen Zen 2, and the 64 core TR Zen 2 came out in January or February of 2020, though it was more or less leaked months in advance much to the chagrin of people who thought it was BS.

There was a report not long ago that stated AMD had reduced the number of RDNA2 GPUs being made to make up for the excess demand of console APUs despite the fact having secured and delivered the ordered amount for Sony and Microsoft through March 2021, at least that was Sony's initial contract. I don't think either of the three companies realized just how bad things would get and how in-demand their products would be.

I'm only just seeing place cards for Xbox Series S and Series X as well as the PS5 digital/Disc at some stores. Costco had them advertised the other day. There was maybe 2 placecards left for the PS5 disc edition.
 

Abwx

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It's not really a rumor, they have addet it in the motherboard requirements , so that they can add such a model in the lifecycle of the AM5 socket. It might be 4 years from now.

Beefing up MBs power deliveries first benefit is much improved MBs reliability with existing SKUs that range within 65 to 105W nominal, wich is good for reputation, AMD certainly have this in mind more than an eventual 170W SKU.
 

A///

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Wasn't the power limits on AM4 the reason they couldn't push the Zen chips harder or was that bunk info? Someone mentioned it on an IRC to me a year or two ago, but I never looked into it. AM4 came out long before Ryzen was announced, no?
 

A///

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Feb 24, 2017
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I'm awfully curious how Zen 4 will pan out, though. Mainly in regard to platform stability and raw power. I'm not sure if I'll readily dump my 10th gen setup I recently built or how as luck would have it Zen 3 became readily available almost a week after I'd bought my 10th gen build parts. From the Gigabyte hack, Zen 4 will be launching with DDR5 speeds above Intel's for Alderlake. There was that rumor of the IOD being redesigned, but knowing AMD I hope they don't cripple the IF again.