Discussion Speculation: Zen 4 (EPYC 4 "Genoa", Ryzen 7000, etc.)

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Vattila

Vattila

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Except for the details about the improvements in the microarchitecture, we now know pretty well what to expect with Zen 3.

The leaked presentation by AMD Senior Manager Martin Hilgeman shows that EPYC 3 "Milan" will, as promised and expected, reuse the current platform (SP3), and the system architecture and packaging looks to be the same, with the same 9-die chiplet design and the same maximum core and thread-count (no SMT-4, contrary to rumour). The biggest change revealed so far is the enlargement of the compute complex from 4 cores to 8 cores, all sharing a larger L3 cache ("32+ MB", likely to double to 64 MB, I think).

Hilgeman's slides did also show that EPYC 4 "Genoa" is in the definition phase (or was at the time of the presentation in September, at least), and will come with a new platform (SP5), with new memory support (likely DDR5).

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What else do you think we will see with Zen 4? PCI-Express 5 support? Increased core-count? 4-way SMT? New packaging (interposer, 2.5D, 3D)? Integrated memory on package (HBM)?

Vote in the poll and share your thoughts! :)
 
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DrMrLordX

DrMrLordX

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jpiniero said:
How about SMT4? ;)
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mikk said:
Do you have a source?
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Milan was sampling in October 2019. Even if we assume that Genoa follows the worst-possible cadence (18 months) that still puts it sampling in April 2021, whether ES for internal testing or QS for customers. Personally I wouldn't put it that far behind, but at that point its just speculation.
 
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soresu

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mikk said:
This can't be true because AMD told that Zen4 is in design last October. Don't trust every rumor.
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Don't take everything Lisa Su or her employees say at face value.

They are in a cutthroat battle to the death with at least 2 other companies so a little deception at least is warranted.
 
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Hitman928

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mikk said:
This can't be true because AMD told that Zen4 is in design last October. Don't trust every rumor.
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Was this from an earnings call or some kind of presentation? Was it Lisa Su or someone else from AMD?

Edit: As a note, I went looking for this but couldn't find it. The closest I found was Mark Papermaster saying Zen 4 was in design phase but it was from Oct. 2019.
 
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soresu

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Gideon said:
If BitsandChips is the only source I would trust it even less though. They have spread pure nonsense before.
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I don't trust any rumour, my point was just that Lisa may well say 12 months away when it's only 9 to obscure AMD's level of readiness and put nVidia/Intel on the wrong foot.

I'm pretty sure this happened with Vega 7nm as it came far sooner than they originally told us it would.
 
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Ajay

Ajay

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soresu said:
Don't take everything Lisa Su or her employees say at face value.

They are in a cutthroat battle to the death with at least 2 other companies so a little deception at least is warranted.
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Not really, given how capacity constrained they are and how far they are ahead of Intel.
Anyway, the bit of information we have was provided by Lisa Su in an interview that @DisEnchantment linked in this post.
Unless we are talking about something else.
 
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Hitman928

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Ajay said:
Not really, given how capacity constrained they are and how far they are ahead of Intel.
Anyway, the bit of information we have was provided by Lisa Su in an interview that @DisEnchantment linked in this post.
Unless we are talking about something else.
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Zen 4 is a 2022 product (officially) but there's a good possibility it will be sold pre-launch to some big players (e.g. cloud providers) before the end of 2021, just like Zen 3 was sold pre-launch to some big players. @mikk suggested this isn't possible because AMD said that Zen 4 was still in design phase just this past October, but I couldn't find anything like that except a comment made from Papermaster in Oct. 2019 saying it was still in design phase which would absolutely make it possible for AMD to be selling some amount of Zen 4 before the end of the year. I'm sure will find out for sure within a few months as AMD releases new roadmaps and discusses financials later in the year.
 
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mikk

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Hitman928 said:
Was this from an earnings call or some kind of presentation? Was it Lisa Su or someone else from AMD?

Edit: As a note, I went looking for this but couldn't find it. The closest I found was Mark Papermaster saying Zen 4 was in design phase but it was from Oct. 2019.
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It was from the Zen 3 announcement stream October 2020:

On Zen3 AMD told us they have completed the design: https://www.tweaktown.com/news/67008/amds-new-zen-3-design-complete-4-ready-2021/index.html

We haven't heard something like this for Zen 4.
 
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Hitman928

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mikk said:
It was from the Zen 3 announcement stream October 2020:

On Zen3 AMD told us they have completed the design: https://www.tweaktown.com/news/67008/amds-new-zen-3-design-complete-4-ready-2021/index.html

We haven't heard something like this for Zen 4.
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Thank you.

So if it was still in design on Oct, the earliest it could have taped out would be ~ Nov. which means they could be sourcing to hyperscalers just before the end of the year with official launch in 1H22. We'll have to see if they were able to make that or not in the next few months.
 
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mikk

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eek2121 said:
Link? As I understand it, Zen 4 has been design complete for quite a while now. Admittedly, I've seen nothing official.
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Link for what? Do you have a link where AMD says Zen 4 has been design completed? This is what I'm asking for, so far nobody could answer this question. The last official statement came from AMD last October as I said. Some are saying late 2022 Zen 4 launch can't be true etc, we don't even know if they have completed the Zen 4 design and if they did since when.
 
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jpiniero

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mikk said:
Link for what? Do you have a link where AMD says Zen 4 has been design completed? This is what I'm asking for, so far nobody could answer this question. The last official statement came from AMD last October as I said. Some are saying late 2022 Zen 4 launch can't be true etc, we don't even know if they have completed the Zen 4 design and if they did since when.
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The late 2022 launch for desktops could still be accurate while Genoa is available a lot earlier in volume to cloud providers.
 
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mikk

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Thibsie said:
Where did AMD state the Zen4 design isn't completed ?
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This is not what I'm saying. I'm saying the last official info from AMD (or any other trustable source) came from the Zen 3 announcement stream in October 2020. This is the last we have heard as far as I know. Some people here told it is completed but couldn't provide a trustable source (BitsandChips was a fail). Are you assuming it is completed by now? You have to wonder why they didn't tell us assuming it is completed. On Zen 3 they happily told us during the Epyc Rome unveil.

This news comes out of its reveal event for 2nd-generation Epyc processors, where AMD showed a slide indicating that the Zen 3 architecture design is complete, and even labeled the more-distant Zen 4 architecture as "in design".
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www.techradar.com

AMD Zen 3 has finished its design phase, rumored to launch in 2020

And, now AMD is working on Zen 4
www.techradar.com www.techradar.com

Milan Epyc unveil isn't even 2 months old.....and there was nothing like this which is suspicious to say the least.
 
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Thibsie

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mikk said:
This is not what I'm saying. I'm saying the last official info from AMD (or any other trustable source) came from the Zen 3 announcement stream in October 2020. This is the last we have heard as far as I know. Some people here told it is completed but couldn't provide a trustable source (BitsandChips was a fail). Are you assuming it is completed by now? You have to wonder why they didn't tell us assuming it is completed. On Zen 3 they happily told us during the Epyc Rome unveil.
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I assume nothing. What I'm saying is you're doing exactly what you're accusing others to: you're assuming. They didn't tell us it was finished so it's not.

We know nothing.
It isn't unreasonable to think it IS finished we do NOT know it is. Period.
 
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mikk

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Thibsie said:
I assume nothing. What I'm saying is you're doing exactly what you're accusing others to: you're assuming. They didn't tell us it was finished so it's not.

We know nothing.
It isn't unreasonable to think it IS finished we do NOT know it is. Period.
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I'm not assuming, I'm just saying how it is. I have asked f the Zen4 design has been completed by now and nobody could give a trustable source, so I have to assume there is zero source. I'm saying the last official info we have came from the Zen 3 announcement and there is no evidence so far that they have completed the design of Zen 4 despite people claimed it has been completed or it's shipping already.


jpiniero said:
You do realize AMD had been selling Milan to the Cloud guys for months at reveal.
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Looks like you didn't understand the posting.
 
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moinmoin

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AMD has scaled back the amount of info it shares with the public a lot since the launch of Zen 2. That openness was likely based on AMD's narrative that Zen 1-3 were planned from the beginning and that the AM4 platform would be replaced after that. Now all we really know about Zen 4 is that Genoa uses it and that the El Capitan exascale supercomputer for early 2023 will use it.
 
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turtile

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mikk said:
I'm not assuming, I'm just saying how it is. I have asked f the Zen4 design has been completed by now and nobody could give a trustable source, so I have to assume there is zero source. I'm saying the last official info we have came from the Zen 3 announcement and there is no evidence so far that they have completed the design of Zen 4 despite people claimed it has been completed or it's shipping already.
Click to expand...

There was also an interview with Mark Papermaster (I think in Jan 21) in which he said that it was still in design.
 
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