And yet smart money has Genoa shipping to hyperscalars as we speak. Unless you are suggesting that's totally unrelated to AMD's ability to produce Raphael.There is no realistic chance. In October last year Zen4 design wasn't even finished.
Why Q2? Why not Q1?Don't expect Z4 before Q2 next year at the earliest.
Wild hunch says those are ESes, not shipping anything final-ish siliconAnd yet smart money has Genoa shipping to hyperscalars as we speak. Unless you are suggesting that's totally unrelated to AMD's ability to produce Raphael.
Because 5nm capacity.Why Q2? Why not Q1?
Unless they're soliciting outside help on finalizing clocks/TDPs, I doubt it. They're either shipping QS or early commercial steppings.Wild hunch says those are ESes, not shipping anything final-ish silicon
I wouldn't think that would be an issue by now. TSMC has had a year to address that issue, and up to this point practically nobody but Apple has been taking N5 wafers.Because 5nm capacity.
TSMC has already planned to double the capacity of 5nm for next year, but i think AMD won't move all this products on 5nm at the same time, they can stick on 7nm/6nm for console APUWild hunch says those are ESes, not shipping anything final-ish silicon
Because 5nm capacity.
The 'doubling' of Fab 18's production from the initial 60-70 KWM to 120 KWM should be complete by the end of Q2 2021 according to what I've read (so, wafer output will peak about 3 mos later). TSMC are building around the same wafer output (eventually) on N5 in the US, but HVM is due till 2024 (construction in AZ has already begun); wafer production will start out slow as they are not building GIGA Fabs. TSMC has said that they will be booking no new orders till 2H 2021. At the moment, none of the big players are getting all the wafers they want (supposedly, even Apple). Anyway, this is the best info I have from a few online sources (GizChina, Digitimes, etc.).TSMC has already planned to double the capacity of 5nm for next year, but i think AMD won't move all this products on 5nm at the same time, they can stick on 7nm/6nm for console APU
Apple hasn't said anything about being supply constrained on A14 or M1, their only mention of supply constraints in the earnings call was iPad and Macbook - i.e. the two Apple products that use LCD displays and thus lines up perfectly with the claims that display driver shortages are an issue for them like everyone else. If they were supply constrained on N5 wafers they would have called out potential shortages on iPhone 12, iPad and all Macs not just Macbook.At the moment, none of the big players are getting all the wafers they want (supposedly, even Apple). Anyway, this is the best info I have from a few online sources (GizChina, Digitimes, etc.).
It's almost like AMD is purposely screwing with the leakers. One way to make them viewed as unreliable.If there is something to surmise out of all the leaks for AMD lately, it is that the usual suspects have as much clue as everyone else regarding the roadmap of AMD's products ..... Zero
I doubt, hope at least, that Zen 4 will be not that late. But even so it might make a lot of sense to stretch out Vermeer lifetime and not introduce Warhol, whatever it is.AMD Zen4 in late 2022? A new rumor suggests that AMD Zen4 architecture may launch later than expected. According to @sepeuwmjh who had previously leaked a part of the AMD roadmap, Zen4 architecture should now be expected in 2H 2022. This leaker has been especially active in relation to Raphael...videocardz.com
Unsure if this is Fake News or not, but some dude is saying that Raphael isn't coming until Q4 next year. If you're saying why would they cancel Warhol if that is the case, my only theory is that they want the wafers for something else.
I get the impression that as far as wafer supplies goes, doing a refresh isn't really that costly. It just ends up mostly increasing demand because more people will want to upgrade.Is it possible that AMD is realigning production a bit to embrace the market and supply realities that are present? Given the issues that the industry is having with various raw materials for production, is it possible that AMD is trying to just maximize APU production on existing nodes in the near term?
I'm personally finding it increasingly difficult to justify investing in a pcie4 TR platform purchase, so I hate what this does for Zen4 TR, but it frankly doesn't make sense to ship a DDR5 platform prior to DDR5 being available in quantity. So yes, I'd expect later than sooner.An 18 months release cycle would put Zen 4 to Q2 2022. However, Zen 4 brings a brand new platform with DDR5/PCIe5. So delays are to be expected.
The biggest shortage right now is substrates. And it takes the same sized substrate for a cheap $99 AM4 APU as it does for a 5950X. Assembly labor is also in shortage thanks to COVID. It really doesn't make sense right now to target the bottom of the market.I still think that they could make a killing by producing a smaller chip based on a half Lucienne, with maybe 8MB of L3 in a single CCX and 4 Vega CUs. It would satisfy a whole lot of the market, and they would get a ton of dies off of 7nm wafers.
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