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Speculation: Zen 4 (EPYC 4 "Genoa", Ryzen 6000)

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What do you expect with Zen 4?


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    224

exquisitechar

Senior member
Apr 18, 2017
472
544
106
That's really, REALLY late for Raphael.
I agree. Rembrandt won't be good enough in CPU performance against ADL, and with Raphael in Q1 2023 Intel will be king for all of 2022 and then some. Zen 4 desktop CPUs appear to be pretty late too. Aside from the server market, the competition will be getting fierce for AMD from late 2021 onwards.
 
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uzzi38

Golden Member
Oct 16, 2019
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I agree. Rembrandt won't be good enough in CPU performance against ADL, and with Raphael in Q1 2023 Intel will be king for all of 2022 and then some. Zen 4 desktop CPUs appear to be pretty late too. Aside from the server market, the competition will be getting fierce for AMD from late 2021 onwards.
I think Rembrandt will be quite competitive for thin and lights in the same way Tiger Lake is now - acceptable CPU performance, strong iGPU and excellent I/O capabilities. Pure multithreaded capabilities is only important to a small segment of people (me included) in the -U space at the least.

For -H I suspect Intel will probably have a definite lead though.
 

andermans

Member
Sep 11, 2020
43
44
51
I don't think Zen 4 will be 2H 2022. Based on the 15 month cadence Q1 2022 seems more likely.
The question is what happens with Zen3+. If it is more like Zen+ we'll likely have Zen3+ in Q1 2022 and Zen4 in Q2 2023. Or it could be like the 3000 XT refresh in which case it meant pretty much no delay. Given all the rumors about Genoa in 2022 I doubt Zen4 really takes until 2023, but I'm not sure when to actually expect the Zen4 release.
 
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Timorous

Senior member
Oct 27, 2008
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Zen 3 > Zen 4 transition is expected to be different, there's a Zen3+ in the middle that is supposed to launch in H2 2021.
We have no clue what Warhol actually is. Seems like it could be a product that exists so AMD still release a desktop CPU in 2021 as a spoiler for Alder lake.

I remember people thinking the 3000 XT products meant that zen3 was delayed which was not true.

I could see a Q2 launch for zen4 but I am really skeptical that it will be 2H 2022.
 
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Ajay

Diamond Member
Jan 8, 2001
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Zen 3 > Zen 4 transition is expected to be different, there's a Zen3+ in the middle that is supposed to launch in H2 2021.
Zen3+ makes more sense to me now than before. With Apple likely eating up all the early 5N wafers it will be tough for AMD to get enough supply to field Zen4 products b/4 H2 2022.
Curious what AMD will do. Can't be much more frequency left on the table considering how well Ryzen 5K clocks. Logic improvements + clocks for ~10% more performance?
Also, and uplift would help against RKL, at least with gamers who care about a few extra FPS.
 
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Timorous

Senior member
Oct 27, 2008
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Warhol is a new chip codename, not XT. At least like Lucienne or Pinnacle Ridge. Maybe more.
Warhol is a new desktop package codename. For all we know it could just be the same zen3 ccd(s) with a different IO die. What I do know is that on the roadmaps AMD have released there is nothing about a zen 3+ product so until more information is released I expect AMD to release Zen 4 inline with their 15 month cadence which is Q1 2022 and possibly Q2 2022.
 
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Doug S

Senior member
Feb 8, 2020
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Apple has been on N5 for awhile. Shouldn't TSMC have had ample opportunity to expand N5 production for other customers by now?
Any expansion of N5 is limited by EUV equipment. They can only expand when they get enough deliveries from ASML to fully equip another line - and most (or even all) of those deliveries would have been allocated to N5P and more recently to N3 (which begins risk production any day now, which requires a fully equipped line)
 
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Ajay

Diamond Member
Jan 8, 2001
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Apple has been on N5 for awhile. Shouldn't TSMC have had ample opportunity to expand N5 production for other customers by now?
Doh! Thanks. To think, I have an iPhone 12 with an A14 and still blew that. @Doug S nailed the problem with expanding 5N and getting 3N up and running. Fortunately for TSMC, Intel being out of the leading edge ATM has allowed TSMC to get a larger allocation.
 
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moinmoin

Platinum Member
Jun 1, 2017
2,369
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Mark Papermaster at the Morgan Stanley Technology, Media and Telecom Conference yesterday said, next Generation Epyc (Genoa) coming in 2022 (leveraging 5nm) and Zen 5 is on track. Interestingly, he also mentioned 6nm.
Condensed transcription over at reddit. Imo notable quotes:

"Design process is 5 year cycle. The original Zen roadmap had 3 generations."

"The manufacturing node is chosen to balance performance vs reliability vs yield. (...) we wait until the node matures. We have design co-optimization with TSMC. Zen4 will be 5nm. We're on track with Zen5."

"Demand in 2021 will continue to be high. So AMD is ramping up our overall supply chain and we are confident AMD can grow despite the tight environment."

"EYPC 3 Milan is shipping in volume next month although it has been shipping in "select count" since the end of last year."

"Going forward there will not be a homogenous x86 vanilla solution like in the past. HSA and optimized compute solutions is the way forward to address different computing workloads."


https://www.reddit.com/r/AMD_Stock/comments/lwn7sm
 

yuri69

Member
Jul 16, 2013
111
123
116
So Milan is shipping next month. This means Q2, right? Do we really expect Genoa to be anytime soon in 2022? Are the SP3 and SP5 platforms supposed to coexist?
 

jpiniero

Diamond Member
Oct 1, 2010
9,047
1,743
126
So Milan is shipping next month. This means Q2, right? Do we really expect Genoa to be anytime soon in 2022? Are the SP3 and SP5 platforms supposed to coexist?
It's going to coexist on some level since AMD will sell plenty of Rome and Milan even after when Genoa ships. Papermaster's HSA comments make me wonder if he will see GPU chiplets on package soon enough.
 

moinmoin

Platinum Member
Jun 1, 2017
2,369
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Are the SP3 and SP5 platforms supposed to coexist?
Do we officially know about SP5 already?

Imo if AMD wants to grow quantitatively and not just raise the ASP it better keeps the capacity of older nodes as new nodes will always be more capacity constrained at first. So I do expect the old platforms to live some longer concurrently to the new ones.
 

uzzi38

Golden Member
Oct 16, 2019
1,441
2,706
96
So Milan is shipping next month. This means Q2, right? Do we really expect Genoa to be anytime soon in 2022? Are the SP3 and SP5 platforms supposed to coexist?
Yes, yes and yes.

Milan is only being held back because AMD sees no reason to release it before Ice Lake-SP launches.
 

soresu

Golden Member
Dec 19, 2014
1,605
813
136
It seems to me that N6 makes more sense in mobile with the APU. Better power and thermals always helps there.
From what I have heard the main benefit of N6 over N7/N7P is area scaling.

The power and frequency benefits are supposed to be minimal.

I suspect that N6 is advantageous as it will ameliorate some of the area increase from Zen2 -> Zen3 and Vega2/3 -> RDNA2 on Rembrandt, as well as the rumoured increase from 8 CU to 12 CU.

The fact that Apple is unlikely to go backwards from N5 to N6 for any significant product parts probably has its own charms too.
 
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ThatBuzzkiller

Golden Member
Nov 14, 2014
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It's going to coexist on some level since AMD will sell plenty of Rome and Milan even after when Genoa ships. Papermaster's HSA comments make me wonder if he will see GPU chiplets on package soon enough.
I think he's talking about HSA from an implementation perspective ...

HSA doesn't necessarily need to imply unified physical memory like we see with APUs or potentially chiplets on the same modules. HSA can be implemented with unified virtual memory like we see on systems using ROCm or CUDA with NVLink. In both cases we have identical programming models with different implementations ...

3rd generation infinity fabric on CDNA2 will allow us to extend HSA with multi-node CPU/GPU unified memory as pictured below:

AMD Updates Roadmaps for Zen 3, 5nm, and RDNA2, the GPU Powering Xbox  Series X, PS5 - ExtremeTech
 
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Kaloi48

Member
Jun 2, 2016
28
25
91
It's going to coexist on some level since AMD will sell plenty of Rome and Milan even after when Genoa ships. Papermaster's HSA comments make me wonder if he will see GPU chiplets on package soon enough.
AMD will bring iGPUs to its mainstream desktop processors Raphael according to the leaked roadmap from MebiuW.
1.jpg
It has a dashed outline around Navi 2, that indicates at least some of them will have Navi 2 GPUs.
 

Tuna-Fish

Golden Member
Mar 4, 2011
1,054
635
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AMD will bring iGPUs to its mainstream desktop processors Raphael according to the leaked roadmap from MebiuW.
View attachment 40534
It has a dashed outline around Navi 2, that indicates at least some of them will have Navi 2 GPUs.
Totally unbacked speculation: There will be an IOD on a more modern process (but maybe still not quite state of the art) with a small GPU on it. There will also be IODs on an older process with no GPUs. This integrated GPU is aimed at the very bottom of the market, basically to run windows desktop and do video acceleration, to allow up to 16-core Zen CPUs with a tiny apu for productivity workloads without having to include an AIB GPU in the box.
 

DisEnchantment

Senior member
Mar 3, 2017
757
1,801
136
Design process is 5 year cycle. The original Zen roadmap had 3 generations."
Great scoop. Does indeed sound like Zen3 was the final leg of the original Zen design. Makes sense.
Makes Zen4 design much more intriguing.

"Going forward there will not be a homogenous x86 vanilla solution like in the past. HSA and optimized compute solutions is the way forward to address different computing workloads."
The HSA vision as presented by Rick Bergman in 2011, the Fusion tech, will finally come of age. It took long enough but it is almost here.

From what I can surmise, apparently the Alderbaran GPU has a possiblity of allowing snooping in A+A combination.
Basically, the CPU is aware that a VRAM region in the PTE could be changed by GPU and can therefore now start caching those VRAM regions, (if GPU changes it that cached region is invalidated automatically, therefore no need to SW sync or load/store operations). One more step for complete cache coherent Unifed memory HSA
 

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