Discussion Speculation: Zen 4 (EPYC 4 "Genoa", Ryzen 7000, etc.)

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Vattila

Vattila

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Oct 22, 2004
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Except for the details about the improvements in the microarchitecture, we now know pretty well what to expect with Zen 3.

The leaked presentation by AMD Senior Manager Martin Hilgeman shows that EPYC 3 "Milan" will, as promised and expected, reuse the current platform (SP3), and the system architecture and packaging looks to be the same, with the same 9-die chiplet design and the same maximum core and thread-count (no SMT-4, contrary to rumour). The biggest change revealed so far is the enlargement of the compute complex from 4 cores to 8 cores, all sharing a larger L3 cache ("32+ MB", likely to double to 64 MB, I think).

Hilgeman's slides did also show that EPYC 4 "Genoa" is in the definition phase (or was at the time of the presentation in September, at least), and will come with a new platform (SP5), with new memory support (likely DDR5).

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What else do you think we will see with Zen 4? PCI-Express 5 support? Increased core-count? 4-way SMT? New packaging (interposer, 2.5D, 3D)? Integrated memory on package (HBM)?

Vote in the poll and share your thoughts! :)
 
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Tuna-Fish

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Mar 4, 2011
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I think they will probably officially launch in late December of this year, just to maintain the release per year schedule, but with actual availability only next year.
 
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Gideon

Gideon

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Tuna-Fish said:
I think they will probably officially launch in late December of this year, just to maintain the release per year schedule, but with actual availability only next year.
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Not going to happen. AMD never had release per year, but release per roughly 15 months.
  • Zen 1 was released in February 2017
  • Zen+ in May 2018
  • Zen 2 in July 2019
  • Zen 3 in November 2020
One could always hope for miracles and stubbornly deny precedents, but it's way more probable to expect February/March release at the earliest with wide availability not before Q2. After all, if it arrives sooner it's a nice surprise.

Based on the track-record of the last 4 years, and what AMD higher ups have said: "keeping the 12-15 month cadence", e.g. not changing anything, there isn't any rational reason to expect anything in 2021.

Based on what's currently happening with foundries and Apple hogging 5nm, AMD needing to counter Saphhire Rapid in servers (with DDR5 and PCIe 5 solution of their own) I'd not be surprised if actual wide availability of consumer CPUs will only be later in the latter half 2022.
 
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uzzi38

uzzi38

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Oct 16, 2019
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Oh and before anyone wonders about where Milan is - it's been ready to launch for a while. ServeTheHome has had a sample since like November last year. AMD have held off it's launch simply because they can with Ice Lake-SP being so late.

Lets them fix up the smaller platform bugs related to new features whilst also building up more supply. The delay of Milan's global availability launch doesn't mean we should expect Genoa to be pushed back. Rather, Milan and Genoa will probably have to co-exist for a while anyway, the same way ICL-SP and SPR will for at least a couple of years.
 
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jpiniero

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uzzi38 said:
Oh and before anyone wonders about where Milan is - it's been ready to launch for a while. ServeTheHome has had a sample since like November last year. AMD have held off it's launch simply because they can with Ice Lake-SP being so late.
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You don't think they aren't just selling to Cloud? Intel's sales to "Enterprise & Government" was down 40% last quarter. And while I suppose those groups could still be buying AMD I think it's more likely they aren't buying period. If you are selling to just 7 or 8 customers you don't really need to make all the details public.
 
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moinmoin

moinmoin

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jpiniero said:
You don't think they aren't just selling to Cloud? Intel's sales to "Enterprise & Government" was down 40% last quarter. And while I suppose those groups could still be buying AMD I think it's more likely they aren't buying period. If you are selling to just 7 or 8 customers you don't really need to make all the details public.
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Yeah this. I don't remember where I read this, but it appears plenty Milan chips are already being shipped to cloud partners. AMD may just wait until availability for Milan is better before launching it publicly.
 
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Ajay

Ajay

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I guess I was just trying to see if there were any credible rumor floating around on a release date (sometime in 2021 seems the most obvious).
Also, whether or not Warhol is actually real or not. Haven't seen any updates on either. Thanks for the guesses.
 
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moinmoin

moinmoin

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Since after the launch of Zen 2 AMD is a very tight ship indeed. Aside the one leaked roadmap we really have only patent applications (which won't help with dates, lol) to go by anymore. AMD's CES keynote this year was really disappoint regarding new information as well.
 
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Ajay

Ajay

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moinmoin said:
Since after the launch of Zen 2 AMD is a very tight ship indeed. Aside the one leaked roadmap we really have only patent applications (which won't help with dates, lol) to go by anymore. AMD's CES keynote this year was really disappoint regarding new information as well.
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Yes, very disappointing. But, they have proved themselves to the enthusiast community; now they just need to feed internal roadmaps to the higher ups at OEMs. Boo hoo. Hopefully, they will throw up a bone at some investor conference call (since they are 'public').
 
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soresu

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Gideon said:
Based on what's currently happening with foundries and Apple hogging 5nm, AMD needing to counter Saphhire Rapid in servers (with DDR5 and PCIe 5 solution of their own) I'd not be surprised if actual wide availability of consumer CPUs will only be later in the latter half 2022.
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Especially when they have already reserved a ton of chips for a supercomputer order which is likely Zen4 + CDNA2.
 
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moinmoin

moinmoin

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soresu said:
Especially when they have already reserved a ton of chips for a supercomputer order which is likely Zen4 + CDNA2.
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Great point. El Capitan was announced to be deployed in late 2022, so we can expect consumer Zen 4 chips to launch sometime before. Let's see what's the time frame between Ryzen 5000 and the deployment of Frontier, that may well give us a first hint for the date of launch of a Zen 4 based successor.
 
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DrMrLordX

DrMrLordX

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Ajay said:
I guess I was just trying to see if there were any credible rumor floating around on a release date (sometime in 2021 seems the most obvious).
Also, whether or not Warhol is actually real or not. Haven't seen any updates on either. Thanks for the guesses.
Click to expand...

If Warhol exists, its launch window is getting pretty tight. Zen4/Raphael is probably Jan-Mar 2022.
 
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Ajay

Ajay

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DrMrLordX said:
If Warhol exists, its launch window is getting pretty tight. Zen4/Raphael is probably Jan-Mar 2022.
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Ugh! I forgot it was 2021 already, duh. So Zen4 for 2022 makes much more sense, Geez, I must have sounded like an idiot.
And, I agree about Warhol, at this point, seems like launching 'XT' variants late summer with +200 MHz higher clocks would suffice for a refresh.
 
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NostaSeronx

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Sep 18, 2011
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Don't forget about Zen4 supporting RISC-V, with AMD joining RISC-V in 2021. 2+0+2+1 = 5 aka roman numeral V!!!

DirectPath Instructions = RISC-V G, B, T, P, V, etc.
FastPath Instructions = Bland ole x86.

DirectPath instructions get decoded in the processor core, while FastPath instructions get decoded into DirectPath CISC-encoded ops in the processor front-end.

Q extension converts into truncated x87 80-bit.
P extension converts into MMX/SSE.
V extension converts into SSE2-AVX256.

Enhanced range only appears in supported RISC-V operating systems and programs.

:laughing:
 
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